000 AGXX40 KNHC 100801 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 301 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS PERSIST ACROSS THE NE GULF THIS MORNING...BETWEEN 1027 MB HIGH PRES OVER THE W CENTRAL GULF AND A COLD FRONT THAT SWEPT ACROSS THE SE GULF YESTERDAY. SEAS ARE STILL 8 TO 11 FT OVER THE EASTERN GULF AS WELL. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH RAPIDLY TODAY IN THE EASTERN GULF AS THE HIGH PRES SHIFTS EAST LEAVING A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH TONIGHT. FRESH RETURN FLOW WILL BRIEFLY OCCUR TONIGHT OVER THE NW GULF THEN DIMINISH...AS WILL OVERNIGHT NE WINDS OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE OOZ GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE WEAK LOW PRES N OF THE AREA DRIFTING FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE CAROLINA COAST THU THROUGH LATE FRI...WITH A TRAILING WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THE TRACK OF THE LOW PRES MAY ENHANCE WESTERLY WINDS OVER THE FAR NE GULF THU INTO FRI...BUT OTHERWISE GENTLE TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRI. BUILDING HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA WILL INDUCE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS MAINLY THE EASTERN GULF SAT INTO SUN...FOLLOWED BY STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW AND SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT. MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THE FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO THE WEST CENTRAL GULF AND WEAKEN AHEAD OF ANOTHER FRONT THAT WILL ENTER THE NW GULF LATE MON. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO BELIZE WILL MOVE SE AND MERGE WITH AN STATIONARY FRONT FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO WESTERN PANAMA. THIS WILL ALLOW STRONG WINDS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN TO PERSIST WITH SEAS REACHING 12 FT. MEANWHILE HIGH PRES FOLLOWING THE FRONT WILL ALLOW TRADE WINDS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE SE AND S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...REACHING GALE FORCE OFF COLOMBIA WED NIGHT AND AGAIN ON THU NIGHT AND FRI NIGHT. THIS PATTERN WILL ALSO ALLOW STRONG NE WINDS THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND THE LEE OF CUBA THU INTO FRI. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY THROUGH SAT...THEN INCREASE AGAIN OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SAT INTO SUN AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA...SUPPORTING STRONG NE WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN INTO MON. IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...NW SWELL IS MIXING WITH SHORTER PERIOD EASTERLY TRADE WIND SWELL WITH SEAS IN THE 8 TO 9 FT RANGE. THE NW SWELL WILL SUBSIDE THROUGH FRI WITH THE TRADE WIND SWELL TO 8 FT PERSISTING INTO THE WEEKEND. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. A 0245Z ASCAT SATELLITE PASS INDICATED SUSTAINED GALES WERE NOT FINSIHED OVER THE WATERS OFF NE FLORIDA AND NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS. THIS IS INDUCED BY THE TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN A DEEP LOW OFF NEW ENGLAND AND STRONG HIGH PRES OVER THE WESTERN GULF. SUSTAINED GALES AND GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL PERSIST OVER THE WATERS N OF 29N W OF 65W INTO THIS AFTERNOON...THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS THE LOW PRES MOVES FARTHER AWAY FROM THE AREA. SEAS FROM 8 TO 17 FT NE OF THE BAHAMAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AS WELL THROUGH FRI. A FROM BERMUDA TO CENTRAL CUBA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD...MERGING WITH A STALLED FRONT FARTHER EAST ON THU...THEN THE MERGED FRONT WILL SHIFT E OF THE AREA BY FRI. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT INTO THE NW WATERS SAT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE WARNING TONIGHT INTO THU NIGHT. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THU NIGHT. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ111...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N W OF 77W... GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY. .AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W... GALE WARNING TODAY. .AMZ115...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W... GALE WARNING TODAY. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.