000 AGXX40 KNHC 090802 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 302 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH THROUGH SAT THEN MEDIUM. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE BASIN THIS MORNING. IT CURRENTLY IS ANALYZED FORM NEAR SARASOTA FLORIDA TO TAMPICO MEXICO...AND WILL SHIFT SE OF THE GULF THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A RELATIVE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT IS STILL IN PLACE BETWEEN HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GULF AND DEEP LOW PRES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE TIGHT GRADIENT ALONG WITH A FAIRLY COLD AND DRY AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT IS RESULTING IN SUSTAINED WINDS TO GALE FORCE OVER PORTIONS OF THE N CENTRAL AND NE GULF AS OBSERVED IN AN ASCAT PASS FROM 03 UTC. THE SUSTAINED WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE MORNING BELOW GALE FORCE...BUT TURBULENT MIXING OF THE COLD AIR OVER THE RELATIVELY WARMER GULF WATERS WILL RESULT IN FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE INTO THE AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF THE NE GULF. RECENT SHIP AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS OVER THE NE GULF INDICATED SEAS ARE LIKELY PEAKING AROUND 17 FT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE HIGH PRES BUILDS EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF...LEAVING A RELATIVELY WEAK PRES PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE BASIN THU INTO FRI. LOOKING AHEAD...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN GULF FRI NIGHT/EARLY SAT...STALLING FROM THE S CENTRAL GULF TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE BY SUN NIGHT/EARLY MON...AHEAD OF ANOTHER FRONT IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS APPROACHING THE NW GULF. WHILE THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO AMONG GLOBAL MODELS...THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES REGARDING TIMING AND STRENGTH. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO LONGER TERM FORECAST AT THIS TIME. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. A STATIONARY FRONT WAS ANALYZED FROM WINDWARD PASSAGE TO JAMAICA TO THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR SAN ANDRES ISLAND. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE NW GULF AND FAR SW GULF WEST OF THE FRONT...WITH FRESH TO STRONG TRADES PERSISTING OFF COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA. A REINFORCING PUSH OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN LATER THIS MORNING FOLLOWING A SECOND FRONT...ALLOWING WINDS TO INCREASE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 11 FT OVER PORTIONS OF THE SW CARIBBEAN OUTSIDE THE COASTAL REEFS OF NICARAGUA THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE WINDS INCREASE TO NEAR GALE FORCE. SIMILARLY HIGH PRES BUILDING N OF THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ALLOW TRADE WIND FLOW TO INCREASE AS WELL OVER THE S CENTRAL AND SE CARIBBEAN. THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE THE LIKELIHOOD OF TRADES REACHING GALE FORCE OFF COLOMBIA THU NIGHT. THE LATEST RUNS OF OPERATIONAL GFS AND UKMET HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY SHOWING THIS...WITH THE ECMWF NEAR GALE. GFS ENSEMBLES ARE NOT SHOWING ANY PROBABILITY OF GALE...BUT GIVEN THE PATTERN GALES ARE PLAUSIBLE AND WILL BE RETAINED IN THIS FORECAST CYCLE. ASSOCIATED SEAS WILL REACH 12 TO 13 FT OFF COLOMBIA BY THU AS WELL. THE PATTERN WILL ALLOW STRONG NE WINDS THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND IN THE LEE OF CUBA AS WELL BY THU NIGHT. LOOKING AHEAD...WINDS DIMINISH FRI ONLY SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE BASIN...INCREASING AGAIN SAT AS ANOTHER REINFORCING AIRMASS BUILDS TO THE NORTH. IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...NW SWELL WILL MIGRATE PASS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND MIX WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SHORTER PERIOD EASTERLY TRADE WIND SWELL BY TONIGHT WITH 8 TO 9 FT COMBINED SEAS. THE NW SWELL WILL DECAY THROUGH FRI WITH THE TRADE WIND SWELL TO 8 FT PERSISTING INTO THE WEEKEND. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. GALE WARNINGS ARE AGAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA EAST OF NE FLORIDA AND N OF THE BAHAMAS AS A STRONG COLD FRONT EMERGES OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST THIS MORNING. A 03 UTC ASCAT SATELLITE PASS ALREADY CONFIRMED WINDS TO GALE FORCE ARE ONGOING IN THIS AREA. THE SUSTAINED GALES WILL DIMINISH N OF 27N W OF 77W THIS MORNING...BUT STRONG GRADIENT FLOW WILL MIX TO THE SURFACE IN THE FORM OF FREQUENT GUSTS THROUGH AT LEAST LATE TODAY AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES OVER THE WARM GULF STREAM WATERS. SUSTAINED GALES WILL ALSO EXTEND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA N OF 29N THROUGH LATE TODAY. THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS WHETHER TO EXTEND THESE SUSTAINED GALES INTO TONIGHT. ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE MOSTLY KEEPS THE BEST AREA FOR OVERNIGHT GALES JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE A CONCERN. CURRENT FORECAST HOLDS WINDS TO JUST BELOW GALE FORCE THROUGH EARLY WED IN WATERS N OF 29N WITH SEAS 12 TO 20 FT N OF 27N...SUBSIDING TO 8 TO 13 FT THROUGH WED NIGHT AS THE FRONT DRIFTS EAST AND EVENTUALLY MERGES WITH A STATIONARY BOUNDARY REACHING FROM 30N50W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. RESIDUAL SWELL WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY FRI. ANOTHER FRONT WILL ALLOW WIND OFF NE FLORIDA TO INCREASE BY LATE FRI...WITH NE SURGES INTO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AS WELL. THE FRONT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REACH FROM 31N76W TO THE SPACE COAST OF FLORIDA LATE FRI NIGHT...THEN FROM BERMUDA TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS BY SAT EVENING. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE MODEST POTENTIAL FOR GALE WARNING FORCE WINDS JUST AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THIS NEXT FRONT N OF 29N/30N. STRONG HIGH PRES THEN BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE UNITED STATES MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG NW-N FLOW ACROSS THE BASIN BY SUN AFTERNOON. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ013...N CENTRAL GULF INCLUDING FLOWER GARDEN BANKS MARINE SANCTUARY... GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY. .GMZ015...NE GULF N OF 25N E OF 87W... GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE WARNING WED NIGHT. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WED NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ111...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N W OF 77W... GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY INTO TODAY. .AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W... GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY INTO TODAY. .AMZ115...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W... GALE WARNING TODAY INTO TONIGHT. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.