000 AGXX40 KNHC 081837 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 137 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. 1023 MB HIGH PRES WAS ANALYZED IN THE W CENTRAL GULF NEAR 25N84W THIS MORNING WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING TO THE E-SE TO NEAR 25N82W. A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO THE TEXAS COASTAL WATERS. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS AND 4-6 FT SEAS WERE REPORTED E OF 90W... WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND 2-4 FT SEAS W OF 90W AND E OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE BASIN THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE HIGH CENTER DISSIPATES. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO GALE FORCE IN THE N CENTRAL AND NE GULF COMMENCING LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THEN CONTINUING WITH AT LEAST FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE THROUGH EARLY TUE. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO UP TO 12-15 FT LATE TONIGHT AND TUE MORNING. NEW HIGH PRES WILL MOVE INTO THE W CENTRAL GULF IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT TO NEAR 24N96W BY TUE EVENING GRADUALLY SHIFTING TO THE NE GULF BY THU MORNING. A RIDGE AXIS WILL THEN LINGER ALONG 26N THROUGH FRI MORNING UNTIL A COLD FRONT CLIPS THE EASTERN GULF FRI AFTERNOON...PUSHING THROUGH THE SE GULF BY SAT MORNING. STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS DOWN FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SAT WITH FRESH TO STRONG NE-E FLOW ACROSS THE BASIN SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. A STATIONARY FRONT WAS ANALYZED FROM SE CUBA TO JUST SE OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TO ALONG THE NICARAGUAN COAST THIS MORNING. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO DRIFT SE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING...EVENTUALLY STALLING FROM SW HISPANIOLA TO WESTERN PANAMA BY TUE NIGHT INTO WED. NORTHERLY WINDS ARE CURRENTLY MODERATE TO FRESH W OF THE FRONT...HOWEVER THEY WILL INCREASE TO FRESH TO STRONG ESPECIALLY S OF 18N TONIGHT...INCREASING TO 30 KT E OF NICARAGUA TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU WHERE SEAS WILL BUILD TO 12 FT OUTSIDE OF PROTECTED AREAS. THE FRONT WILL LINGER AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH FRESH TO STRONG N-NE FLOW PERSISTING INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. NE FLOW WILL INCREASE TO NEAR GALE FORCE DOWNWIND AND THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE WED NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRI MAKING CONDITIONS HAZARDOUS ALONG THE APPROACH. MEANWHILE E OF THE FRONT AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN...MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS CONTINUE TO BLOW NW OF NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND N OF NORTHERN VENEZUELA WITH 7-10 FT SEAS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AND EXPAND SLIGHTLY NW-N THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE SUPPORTING PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS A LITTLE MORE. AS THIS OCCURS...GALE FORCE WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE NW OF COLOMBIA THU NIGHT AND AGAIN FRI NIGHT...ALTHOUGH CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTED AGAIN SAT NIGHT AS THE GRADIENT WEAKENS SLIGHTLY BY THEN. IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. NORTHERLY SWELLS MIXED WITH LONGER PERIOD SE SWELLS WILL RESULT IN COMBINED SEAS OF 7-10 FT. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. A COLD FRONT WAS ANALYZED FROM 31N63W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE THIS MORNING WITH A FAIRLY WELL ORGANIZED LINE OF CONVECTION N OF 26N WITHIN 60-90 NM E OF THE FRONT. THIS FRONT WRAPS UP INTO A DEEP LOW N OF THE AREA WITH LARGE NW-N SWELLS UP TO 30-35 FT PROPAGATING INTO THE N CENTRAL AND NE OFFSHORE WATERS WHILE A BUOY 240 NM W OF BERMUDA REPORTED 40 FT SEAS THIS MORNING ALONG WITH AN ALTIMETER PASS WHICH SHOWED 42 FT SEAS. THE FRONT IS IN THE PROCESS OF WEAKENING WITH ASSOCIATED GALE FORCE WINDS N OF 28N E OF 74W DIMINISHING BY THE EVENING. THE FRONT WILL STALL FROM 31N58W TO 27N62W TO 20N69W BY THIS EVENING WHERE IT WILL LINGER THROUGH MID-WEEK. A NEW COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE SE UNITED STATES WILL APPROACH NORTHERN FLORIDA LATER TODAY. SW FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL QUICKLY INCREASE TO GALE FORCE IN THE NW OFFSHORE WATERS BY THE EVENING...SPREADING EASTWARD N OF 27N/28N THROUGH WED AS THE COLD FRONT SAILS THROUGH THE AREA. ASSOCIATED FRESH SWELLS WILL QUICKLY BUILD TO AROUND 20 FT ALONG 31N BY TUE AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM 31N73W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA BY SUNRISE TUE...THEN WILL MERGE WITH THE OLD STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WED MORNING. THAT MERGED BOUNDARY WILL BE LOCATED FROM 25N65W TO THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA BY THU MORNING...THEN WILL DRIFT NW THU NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SAT. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THIS NEXT COLD FRONT WITH A RIDGE AXIS ALONG 28N/29N BY FRI MORNING WITH A BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM THE VERY ACTIVE CONDITIONS. THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE NW CORNER LATE FRI MORNING. THAT FRONT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REACH FROM 31N76W TO THE SPACE COAST OF FLORIDA LATE FRI NIGHT...THEN FROM BERMUDA TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS BY SAT EVENING. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE WINDS JUST AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THIS NEXT FRONT N OF 29N/30N. STRONG HIGH PRES THEN BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE UNITED STATES MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG NW-N FLOW ACROSS THE BASIN BY SUN AFTERNOON. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ013...N CENTRAL GULF INCLUDING FLOWER GARDEN BANKS MARINE SANCTUARY... GALE WARNING INTO TUE. .GMZ015...NE GULF N OF 25N E OF 87W... GALE WARNING INTO TUE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THU NIGHT INTO FRI. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ111...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N W OF 77W... GALE WARNING TONIGHT INTO TUE. .AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W... GALE WARNING TODAY INTO TUE NIGHT. .AMZ115...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W... GALE WARNING TODAY. GALE WARNING TUE INTO TUE NIGHT. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.