000 AGXX40 KNHC 070800 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 300 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH. A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. THIS MORNING. A VIGOROUS SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS IS MOVING ACROSS THE N CENTRAL AND NE GULF CURRENTLY. AN ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WAS MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF HAS DISSIPATED...LEAVING A TROUGH FROM NEAR TAMPA TO THE NW GULF OFF TEXAS. FARTHER EAST OFF THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA AND NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS...THE MUCH ANTICIPATED SURFACE LOW HAS FORMED IN ADVANCE OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. A TIGHT GRADIENT IS SETTING UP BETWEEN THE DEEPENING LOW AND HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GULF...RESULTING IN FRESH TO STRONG NW TO N WINDS AND SEAS TO 8 FT ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF THROUGH THIS MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE DEEPENING LOW PRES MOVES RAPIDLY NE AND THE HIGH PRES BUILDS EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF. THE REPRIEVE WILL BE SHORT HOWEVER AS A SECOND NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE CURRENT MOVING OFF THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS DIVES SE THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY EARLY MON THEN LIFTS NE TOWARD THE CAROLINAS THROUGH MON NIGHT. THIS WILL DELIVER A COLDER AIRMASS INTO THE NORTHERN GULF...RESULTING IN A BLASE OF STRONG NW WINDS OVER MAINLY THE N CENTRAL AND NE GULF LATE MON AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TUE...WITH SEAS BUILDING AS HIGH AS 14 FT SOUTH OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA. THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE THE LIKELIHOOD FOR SUSTAINED GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE NE GULF LATE MON. 00Z OPERATIONAL MODELS INCLUDING THE GFS AND UKMET INDICATED THIS...WITH THE ECMWF SLIGHTLY WEAKER. ENSEMBLE OUTPUT SHOWS FAIRLY LOW PROBABILITY OF SUSTAINED GALES. HOWEVER GIVEN THE COLDER AIR MOVING INTO THE RELATIVELY WARMER GULF WATERS...ITS LIKELY TO SEE EFFICIENT MIXING OF HIGHER MOMENTUM WINDS TO THE SURFACE TO AT LEAST NEAR GALE CONDITIONS...AS WELL AS FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE. THUS A GALE WARNING WILL BE POSTED FOR LATE MON IN THE NE GULF. SHORTER PERIOD SWELL OF 8 TO 10 FT WILL ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE EASTERN GULF THROUGH EARLY WED BUT SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT LATER IN THE MORNING. RELATIVELY BENIGN CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW THROUGH MID WEEK AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE REGION....CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. A ACTIVE MID/UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF THIS MORNING IS BREATHING NEW LIFE INTO A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REACHING FROM WESTERN CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL REACH FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO THE HONDURAN COAST THIS MORNING WITH SEAS 8 TO 10 FT...HIGHEST IN THE BAY ISLANDS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH LATE TODAY...EXCEPT FOR A SLIVER OF STRONGER WINDS HUGGING THE EASTERN HONDURAN COAST NEAR CABO GRACIAS A DIOS TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL SHIFT SE THEN STALL AGAIN MON FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO NICARAGUAN COAST. A TIGHT GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH REINFORCING HIGH PRES INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL ALLOW NORTHERLY WINDS TO INCREASE OFF NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA LATE MON AND TUE WITH SEAS BUILDING 8 TO 11 FT REACHING WESTERN PANAMA BY TUE NIGHT. THE TIGHT GRADIENT WILL ALLOW STRONG NE WINDS THROUGH OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BY EARLY THU...INCLUDING THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND LEE OF CENTRAL CUBA...AND REACHING NEAR GALE OFF NE COLOMBIA AND WESTERN VENEZUELA. FARTHER EAST...TRADE WIND SWELL TO 8 FT REACHING BARBADOS WILL SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH TONIGHT. NW SWELL OF 8 TO 9 FT WILL PUSH PAST THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TUE AND WED...SUBSIDING EARLY THU. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. A DYNAMIC MID/UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE NE GULF AND N FLORIDA THIS MORNING AND IS STARTING TO TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT AS IT LIFTS NE...SUPPORTING DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRES N OF GRAND BAHAMA AND EAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL THIS MORNING. THE LOW PRES WILL DEEPEN RAPIDLY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND SHIFT NE OF THE AREA...ALLOWING WINDS TO INCREASE DRAMATICALLY ACROSS THE WATERS BETWEEN NE FLORIDA AND BERMUDA. DUE TO THE RAPID DEEPENING...THIS LOW IS POISED TO BE AMONG THE STRONGER SYSTEM THIS SEASON...WITH GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED OFF NE FLORIDA LATER TODAY...AND STORM CONDITIONS NE OF THE BAHAMAS CLOSER TO 30N. SEAS WILL REACH CLOSE TO 30 FT BY TONIGHT MIDWAY BETWEEN NE FLORIDA AND BERMUDA AS A RESULT IN THE AREA OF STORM CONDITIONS. WINDS DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE N OF 28N EARLY MON...BUT THIS WILL BE TEMPORARY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL EMERGE OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST BY LATE MON. WHILE THE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SECOND FRONT WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS THE CURRENT PATTERN...IT WILL DELIVER A COLDER AIRMASS INTO THE REGION SUPPORTING ANOTHER ROUND OF GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 29N MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT WITH SEAS REACHING 20 FT. THE FIRST FRONT WILL STALL FROM 31N60W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TUE. THE SECOND FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY MERGE WITH THE FIRST BOUNDARY BY MID WEEK AND DRIVE FARTHER EAST N OF 25N THROUGH LATE WEEK. THE WINDS RELATED TO THESE SUCCESSIVE FRONTS WILL GENERATE A LARGE AREA OF NW SWELL IN EXCESS OF 8 FT COVERING MUCH OF THE REGION OUTSIDE THE BAHAMAS THROUGH MID WEEK...GRADUALLY SUBSIDING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH LATE WEEK. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ015...NE GULF N OF 25N E OF 87W... GALE WARNING MON NIGHT. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ111...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N W OF 77W... GALE WARNING TODAY. STORM WARNING TONIGHT. GALE WARNING MON NIGHT. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MON NIGHT INTO TUE. .AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W... GALE WARNING TODAY. STORM WARNING TONIGHT. GALE WARNING MON INTO MON NIGHT. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT. .AMZ115...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W... STORM WARNING TONIGHT. GALE WARNING MON. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE INTO TUE NIGHT. .AMZ119...ATLANTIC FROM 22N TO 27N E OF BAHAMAS TO 70W... GALE WARNING TODAY INTO TONIGHT. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.