000 AGXX40 KNHC 060801 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 301 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. FOR WAVE HEIGHTS BLENDED 00Z MWW3 AND A SMALL PERCENTAGE OF TAFB NWPS PARAMETERS WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. HIGH CONFIDENCE. MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E WINDS ARE NOTED ACROSS THE GULF THIS MORNING...SOUTH OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A VIGOROUS MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL SWEEP EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS TEXAS WILL ENTER THE NW GULF THIS MORNING. THE AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY MODIFY AND THE FRONT WILL LOSE DEFINTION AS IT MOVES INTO THE N CENTRAL GULF LATER TODAY. THE TIGHTENING GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT STRONG NW WINDS ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...THEN DIMINISHING RAPIDLY AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF THE MID/UPPER TROUGH. THE SHORT DURATION WILL NOT ALLOW SIGNIFICANT GROWTH IN WAVE HEIGHTS...WITH SEAS REMAINING LESS THAN 8 FT IN ALL BUT BRIEFLY OVER THE FAR SW GULF TONIGHT. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A STRONGER FRONT ENTERING THE NORTHERN GULF LATE SUN/EARLY MON FOLLOWED BY STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS OVER MAINLY THE N CENTRAL AND NE GULF. THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE SE AND S CENTRAL GULF THROUGH EARLY WED...THEN STALL AND WEAKEN. ONE FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE OVER THE NE GULF MON NIGHT REQUIRING A GALE WARNING. WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH ACROSS THE BASIN BY LATE WED AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF THE DISSIPATING FRONT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. FOR WAVE HEIGHTS BLENDED 00Z MWW3 AND A SMALL PERCENTAGE OF TAFB NWPS PARAMETERS WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE FRONT REMAINS STALLED FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO CENTRAL HONDURAS WITH GENERALLY MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS N OF THE BOUNDARY. FARTHER EAST... A SURFACE TROUGH AND WEAK LOW PRES REMAIN OVER EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL N ATLC IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG E TO SE WINDS THROUGH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS INTO THE SE CARIBBEAN...AS NOTED IN A 06 UTC OSCAT PASS. THE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN TODAY ALLOWING THESE WINDS TO DIMINISH. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A VIGOROUS MID/UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO TODAY...REINFORCING THE STALLED FRONT AND ALLOWING IT TO MOVE TO A POSTION FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO NICARAGUA BY LATE SUN BEFORE STALLING INTO MON. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN THROUGH EARLY MON WITH SEAS BUILDING 8 TO 10 FT BY LATE SUN OFF HONDURAS. THE FRONTAL MOVEMENT WILL ALSO DISPLACE THE ATLC RIDGE...HELPING MAINTAIN STRONG TRADES OFF VENEZUELA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A SECOND FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SE GULF TUE AND INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN BY MID WEEK...ALLOWING A RESURGENCE OF N TO NE WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SW AND S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BY LATE WED. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL...THEN MODIFIED TO REFLECT AN ECMWF BLEND N OF THE BAHAMAS. FOR WAVEHEIGHTS BLENDED 00Z MWW3 WITH A SMALL PERCENTAGE OF TAFB NWPS PARAMETERS WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED OFF THE SE U.S AND NE FLORIDA COASTS LAST NIGHT IS ANALYZED FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO CENTRAL CUBA. A STRONG MID/UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE RAPIDLY ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY. MODELS CONSISTENTLY SHOW LOW PRES DEVELOPING LATE THIS EVENING OVER THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH...REINFORCING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE LOW RAPDILY DEEPEN AND MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH SUN NIGHT AND EALRY MON...WITH THE TRAILING FRONT REACHING FROM 31N72W TO 26N70W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE BY LATE MON...AND FROM 31N60W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE BY LATE TUE. STRONG GALES WILL FOLLOW OVER THE WATERS N OF THE BAHAMAS IN ITS WAKE. A SECOND FRONT WILL FOLLOW OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST BY LATE TUE...WITH GALES AGAIN FORMING AHEAD OF IT N OF THE BAHAMAS. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WED NIGHT. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ111...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N W OF 77W... GALE WARNING SUN INTO SUN NIGHT. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MON NIGHT INTO TUE. .AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W... GALE WARNING SUN INTO SUN NIGHT. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT. .AMZ115...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W... GALE WARNING SUN NIGHT. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT INTO MON. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.