000 AGXX40 KNHC 050805 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 305 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. FOR WAVE HEIGHTS BLENDED 00Z MWW3 AND A SMALL PERCENTAGE OF TAFB NWPS PARAMETERS WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE FAR SE GULF OF MEXICO THIS MORNING AND ENTERING THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. STRONG 1032 MB HIGH PRES IS BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS MORNING. THE TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES IS SUPPORTING NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS OVER MAINLY THE S CENTRAL AND SW GULF. A 03 UTC SCATTEROMETER PASS ALONG WITH SHIP OBSERVATIONS INDICATED WINDS WERE REACHING GALE FORCE OVER THE S CENTRAL GULF EARLIER IN THE EVENING. A CONCURRENT ALTIMETER PASS ALSO INDICATED SEAS 12 TO 14 FT IN THE S CENTRAL AND SW GULF AS WELL. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE MORNING AS THE HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION. MEANWHILE A PROGRESSIVE MID/UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES CURRENTLY AND WILL TRANSIT THE PLAINS STATES THROUGH EARLY SAT BEFORE CROSSING THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND NORTHERN GULF WATERS LATE SAT INTO EARLY SUN. SURFACE LOW PRES WILL DEVELOP N OF THE BAHAMAS AHEAD OF THE MID/UPPER TROUGH...ALLOWING NORTHERLY WINDS TO INCREASE AGAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST GULF SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON. WEAK HIGH PRES WILL BRIEFLY DOMINATE EARLY SUN...THEN DISSIPATE AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF FOLLOWED BY STRONG NW WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK MAINLY IMPACTING THE N CENTRAL AND NE GULF. THE FRONT WILL SWEEP TO THE SE OF THE GULF BY EARLY TUE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN GULF...ALLOWING WINDS AND SEAS TO DIMINISH THROUGH TUE NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST. NO MAJOR DIFFERENCES IN MODEL OUTPUT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. FOR WAVE HEIGHTS BLENDED 00Z MWW3 AND A SMALL PERCENTAGE OF TAFB NWPS PARAMETERS WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT IS MOVING INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL THIS MORNING. THE FRONT WILL STALL AND WEAKEN THROUGH LATE TODAY FROM WESTERN CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS. A MID/UPPER TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL REINFORCE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH LATE SAT. THE NEW STRENGTHEN FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SE AND REACH FROM EASTERN CUBA/WINDWARD PASSAGE TO THE COAST OF NICARAGUA BY LATE SUN/EARLY MON...THEN STALLING AND WEAKENING THROUGH MID WEEK. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE FOLLOWING THE FRONT THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8 TO 10 FT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...HIGHEST IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH TONIGHT AS THE FRONT WEAKENS...BUT INCREASE AGAIN BY LATE SAT AS THE FRONT BECOMES REINFORCED...ENVELOPING MUCH OF THE NW CARIBBEAN BEFORE DIMINISHING AGAIN EARLY MON. MEANWHILE TRADE WINDS TO 30 KT WERE NOTED IN A 03 UTC ASCAT PASS. STRONG TRADE WINDS IN THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. FARTHER WEST...A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS IS MOVING INTO PUERTO RICO. STRONG SW WINDS ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED OVER THE WATERS EAST OF THE LEEWARDS...WITH SEAS 8 TO 10 FT. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT TO 15 TO 20 KT AS THE TROUGH WEAKENS...BUT SEAS 8 TO 9 FT WILL REACH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND PERSIST INTO EARLY SAT AFTERNOON. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATED RELATIVE LIMITED WINDS AND SEAS FROM LATE SUN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO A SOMEWHAT WEAKENED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL AND HAND EDITS TO FAVOR A BLEND WITH ECMWF OVER WATERS N OF BAHAMAS. FOR WAVEHEIGHTS BLENDED 12Z MWW3 WITH A SMALL PERCENTAGE OF TAFB NWPS PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT MOVED OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST THIS PAST EVENING...AND WILL LARGELY STALL FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO WESTERN CUBA BY THIS EVENING. A TROUGH ALONG 65W N OF PUERTO RICO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST...EVENTUALLY STALLING AND WEAKENING NEAR 70W AHEAD OF THE FRONT. A STRONG MID/UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE REGION SAT FROM THE WEST...SUPPORTING DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRES N OF THE BAHAMAS LATE SAT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE RAPIDLY DEVELOPMENT AND MOVEMENT OF THE LOW LATE SAT THROUGH SUN AS IT MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER DIFFERENCES AND LOCATION AND SPEED PERSIST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FAVORS MOSTLY THE GFS WHICH IS GOOD COMPROMISE...BUT INCORPORATES A SLIGHTLY SLOWER MOVEMENT THROUGH EARLY MON WITH A NOD TO THE SREF PROBABILTIES AND ECMWF. THE UKMET REMAIN THE MOST AGGRESSIVE...AND WAS NOT FACTORED IN. INTO TUE...THE GFS REMAINS SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF CONSENSUS AND OFFICIAL FORECAST TRENDS MORE NORTHWARD. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE GALES STARTING LATE SUN OVER THE WATERS N OF 29N E OF 80W THROUGH LATE MON. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION BY LATE MON...ALLOWING POTENTIAL FOR GALES OVER THE WATERS OFF NE FLORIDA MON NIGHT INTO TUE. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ111...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N W OF 77W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUN. .AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUN INTO SUN NIGHT. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MON NIGHT INTO TUE. .AMZ115...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT INTO MON. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.