000 AGXX40 KNHC 041948 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 248 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. FOR WAVEHEIGHTS BLENDED 12Z MWW3 AND A SMALL PERCENTAGE OF TAFB NWPS PARAMETERS WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH FRI THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. AS OF 18Z THE COLD FRONT HAS REACHED A POSITION FROM NE FLORIDA SW TO 25N89W TO JUST INLAND THE NW YUCATAN PENINSULA. STRONG HIGH PRES IS BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT. RECENT BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW N-NE WINDS OF 20-30 KT BEHIND THE FRONT ...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF 30-35 KT WINDS S OF 22N W OF 94W. SIMILAR WINDS WERE RECENTLY REPORTED AT SACRIFICE ISLAND NEAR 19.2N 96.1W. THE CURRENT OBSERVATIONS FROM BUOYS AND A COUPLE OF SHIPS SHOW SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 8-13 FT S OF 27N...AND 4-7 FT ELSEWHERE EXCEPT FOR LOWER SEAS OF 2-4 FT N OF 28N. THE HIGHEST OF THE 8-13 FT SEAS IS NEAR 22N93W. THE GFS...ECMWF...UKMET AND NAVGEM MODEL RUNS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING THESE WINDS WITH A SOLID SWATH OF N 30 KT WINDS SPREADING EASTWARD FROM THE SW GULF TO THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. AS A MATTER OF THE FACT THE MODELS CORROBORATE WELL WITH THE 1620Z ASCAT PASS FROM THIS MORNING. IT APPEARS THAT THE PROBABILITY FOR GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE HAS LOWERED SINCE YESTERDAY BASED ON LATEST PERCENTAGES FROM THE GFS MEAN ENSEMBLE AND SREF MODEL GUIDANCE....HOWEVER SINCE THE AREA OF 30 KT WINDS IS VERY SOLID IT WOULDN'T TAKE MUCH OF A TIGHTENING OF THE PRES GRADIENT TO BRING THESE WINDS TO GALE FORCE OVER PORTIONS OF ZONE GMZ025 THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WILL KEEP GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS THIS ZONE THROUGH TONIGHT. MODELS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SE OF THE GULF EARLY ON FRI. HIGH PRES WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA INTO SAT. THE GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN SUBTLE IN SHOWING A TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN GULF ON SAT AS LOW PRES FORMS E OF FLORIDA N OF ABOUT 27N. THIS LOW WILL QUICKLY DEEPEN AS IT PULLS OFF TO THE NE THROUGH SUN NIGHT WHILE HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GULF WEAKENS AT THAT TIME. THE UKMET IS THE MOST STRONGEST WITH THE TROUGH WHERE IT SHOWS LOW PRES ALONG IT OFF THE W CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST SUN WITH STRONG NW WINDS TO ITS W. ALTHOUGH THERE CONTINUE TO BE MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH EXPECTED LOCATION OF THE LOW E OF FLORIDA...THE MODELS AGREE THAT THE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE ATLC LOW WILL IMPACT THE WIND FLOW REGIME OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL GULF INTO SUN AFTERNOON FRESH NW-N WINDS EXPECTED. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING THESE WINDS DIMINISHING SUN NIGHT AS THE HIGH OVER THE WESTERN GULF SHIFTS S AND WEAKENS FURTHER. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE N CENTRAL AND NE GULF MON FOLLOWED BY FRESH W TO NW WINDS. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. FOR WAVEHEIGHTS BLENDED 12Z MWW3 AND A SMALL PERCENTAGE OF TAFB NWPS PARAMETERS WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE WINDS IN THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE THROUGH MON...PULSING TO 30 KT AS INDICATED BY THE HIGH RESOLUTION GFS THROUGH FRI NIGHT AND CONTINUING IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE THROUGH LATE SUN NIGHT. MODELS AGREE THAT THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN AND YUCATAN CHANNEL TONIGHT...AND REACH THE GENERAL LOCATION FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO NEAR BELIZE BY FRI NIGHT. THE FRONTAL REMNANT WILL THEN LIFT BACK TO THE N ON SAT. STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDING SE FROM GULF OF MEXICO WILL PUSH THE FRONT BACK TO THE S OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SAT NIGH...AND STILL APPEARS THAT IT WILL REACH FROM NEAR EASTERN CUBA TO NE HONDURAS SUN NIGHT ...FROM HAITI TO NEAR NORTHERN NICARAGUA MON AND BECOME DIFFUSE INTO EARLY TUE. FRESH NLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DIMINISH BY FRI EVENING...THEN MOVE INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN AGAIN LATE SAT NIGHT...AND SPREAD EASTWARD TO NEAR 84W BEFORE DIMINISHING MON AFTERNOON. AN INVERTED TROUGH ALONG 60W WILL REMAIN RATHER WEAK AS IT MOVES NW ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN THROUGH FRI NIGHT THEN MOVE JUST TO THE N OF THE BASIN. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL THROUGH SAT...THEN BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF THROUGH TUE. FOR WAVEHEIGHTS BLENDED 12Z MWW3 WITH A SMALL PERCENTAGE OF TAFB NWPS PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH SAT...THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. THE 18Z ANALYSIS HAS A RIDGE FROM 31N69W SW TO S FLORIDA. THE BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW MODERATE E WINDS THROUGHOUT...EXCEPT FOR MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS N OF 22N E OF 68W...AND SE-S MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS OVER THE NW PORTION. THE OBSERVATIONS SHOW SEAS IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE...EXCEPT FOR 6-8 FT IN NE SWELL E OF 70W AND 2 FT OR LESS WITHIN THE WATERS OF THE BAHAMA ISLAND CHAIN. THE MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS OVER THE NW PORTION WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH FRI IN RESPONSE OF THE APPROACHING GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW WATERS THIS EVENING. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR MINOR CHANGES WITH RESPECT TO THE FRONTAL FORECAST POSITIONS. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM NEAR 31N75W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND WESTERN CUBA BY FRI MORNING...AND FROM NEAR 31N65W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND STATIONARY TO W CENTRAL SAT MORNING. THE FRONT WILL THEN LIFT BACK N AS A WARM FRONT BY EARLY ON SUN. LOW PRES WILL DEVELOP N OF THE BAHAMAS SAT NIGHT...AND PUSH A NEW COLD FRONT EASTWARD FROM 31N76W TO CENTRAL CUBA SUN MORNING. IT IS THEN EXPECTED TO REACH FROM NEAR 31N69W TO EASTERN CUBA SUN NIGHT...WITH GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS E OF ABOUT 78W BY SUN NIGHT. AN INVERTED TROUGH NEAR 60W WILL SHIFT E TO 55W TONIGHT...THEN RETREAT NW THROUGH NEAR 65W FRI...AND WEAKEN AS IT MERGES WITH THE COLD FRONT SAT. BEYOND SAT...CONFIDENCE LOWERS TO MEDIUM DUE TO CONTINUING MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO THE LOW PRES THAT FORMS N OF THE BAHAMAS. THIS WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE WITH THE FORECAST WINDS AND SEAS. GFS HAS BACKED DOWN SOME WITH BRINGING STORM FORCE WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF ZONES 115 AND 116 MON...AND NOW HAS STRONG GALE FORCE WINDS INSTEAD. THE 12Z ECMWF INDICATES STRONG GALE TO STORM FORCE WINDS BRUSHING THE FAR NORTHERN PART OF ZONE 113 SUN NIGHT INTO MON WITH MOSTLY GALE FORCE WINDS N OF 29N IN ZONE 115 EARLY ON MON. THE GFS TAKES THE LOW EASTWARD JUST N OF THE AREA S SUN AND MON WHILE THE ECMWF TAKES IT TO THE NE WITH A DEEPER PRES...AND LARGE AREA OF GALE TO STORM FORCE WINDS SPREADING OUTWARD TOWARDS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE WITH FORECAST OF STRONG GALE FORCE WINDS FOR ABOVE MENTIONED ZONES GIVEN THE OPPORTUNITY TO ADJUST NDFD WINDS GRIDS TO STORM FORCE IF FUTURE MODELS COME INTO CONSENSUS WITH SUCH SCENARIO. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE NW AND N CENTRAL PORTIONS MON THROUGH TUE PRECEDED BY FRESH TO STRONG SW WINDS...AND FOLLOWED BY SIMILAR WINDS FROM THE W-NW IN DIRECTION. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ019...CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N BETWEEN 87W AND 94W... GALE WARNING TONIGHT. .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE WARNING TODAY. .GMZ025...E BAY OF CAMPECHE INCLUDING CAMPECHE BANK... GALE WARNING TONIGHT. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.