000 AGXX40 KNHC 040744 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 244 AM EST THU FEB 4 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL THROUGH SAT THEN THE 00Z ECMWF USED SAT NIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT. NWPS AND 00Z MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL THROUGH SAT THEN THE 00Z EC WAVE ADDED THROUGH MON NIGHT. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. THE ASCAT-A PASS FROM 0352 UTC SHOWS WINDS NO HIGHER THAN 30 KT ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF. WHILE THE SWATH DID NOT REACH THE COAST OF VERACRUZ...IT LOOKS LIKE THE WIND PATTERN WOULD NOT SUPPORT GALES THERE. THE OBSERVATION AT VERACRUZ HARBOR HAS COME DOWN TO 26 KT AFTER REPORTING AS HIGH AS 33 KT GUSTS TO 38 KT WED EVENING. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN AROUND 15Z ALONG THE COAST OF VERACRUZ AS THE SURFACE FRONT IS AGAIN INVIGORATED AROUND 15Z WHEN THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS INTO THE AREA. THIS IS WHEN THE SREF SHOWS THE FIRST CHANCE OF GALES...AND JUMPS UP TO 30-50 PERCENT BY 18Z-21Z WHEN THE 00Z GFS EXPLICITLY SHOWS GALES. THE SREF AND GEFS BOTH SHOW THE CHANCE OF GALES SPREADING E TO THE WESTERN YUCATAN COAST AROUND 00Z. THE GFS AND 00Z ECMWF SHOW GALES HERE AT THAT TIME. WILL SPREAD THE GALE WARNING E AS THE GFS SUGGESTS INTO THU EVENING. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE WIND FIELD BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY THROUGH FRI NIGHT. BY SAT...THEY DIVERGE SLIGHTLY WITH THE STRENGTH OF A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY PASSING INTO THE NW GULF. THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN THE ECMWF WHILE THE UKMET IS CONSIDERABLY STRONGER THAN BOTH MODELS. THE COMPROMISE GFS LOOKS REASONABLE AT THAT TIME...BUT THE GFS BECOMES A FASTER/WEAKER OUTLIER WITH THE UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE FEATURE. THIS UPPER TROUGH REFLECTS INCREASED TROUGHING IN THE EASTERN GULF BY SAT NIGHT. ADJUSTED THE GRIDS TOWARD THE ECMWF BY SAT NIGHT TO KEEP CLOSER TO THE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODEL CONSENSUS. THE PREVIOUS GRIDS HAD BEEN BASED ON THE GFS...SO STILL DID NOT GO WHOLE HOG ON THE STRONG SURFACE SOLUTION E OF FLORIDA SEEN IN THE ECMWF. STILL...LOOK FOR FRESH TO STRONG N-NW WINDS TO PERSIST SLIGHTLY LONGER IN THE E GULF AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA THAN THE GFS SUGGESTS. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL THROUGH SAT THEN THE 00Z ECMWF USED SAT NIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT. NWPS AND 00Z MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL THROUGH SAT THEN THE 00Z EC WAVE ADDED THROUGH MON NIGHT. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...THE 00Z GFS PULSE WINDS TO 30 KT ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD ON MON. AS EXPLAINED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO SECTION...THE FASTER GFS SOLUTION BECOMES MORE OF AN OUTLIER WITH THE LOW PRES SYSTEM IN THE SW N ATLC BY SAT NIGHT...RAISING PRESSURES N OF THE AREA FASTER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS. THINK THE GFS MAY BE TOO STRONG HERE BY THAT TIME...BUT LOOKS FINE OTHERWISE. HEDGED CLOSER TO THE 00Z ECMWF...WHICH WAS PREFERRED WITH THE PATTERN TO THE N...BY SAT NIGHT. THE 00Z GFS...ECMWF...AND UKMET AGREE ON CARRYING THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL BY 06Z FRI. THE GFS AND UKMET ARE STRONGER WITH THE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT...AND THAT IS THE PREFERRED SOLUTION AS EXPLAINED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO SECTION. BY MIDDAY FRI...THE GFS BECOMES THE MIDDLE-OF-THE-ROAD SOLUTION WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS WILL WEAKEN AND THE FRONT WILL LIFT N OF THE AREA FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. BY LATE SAT...THE GFS BECOMES FASTER THAN THE UKMET AND ECMWF TO SEND THE NEXT FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. THE FASTER GFS SOLUTION IS NOT PREFERRED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTING THIS FRONT. LEANED ON THE ECMWF FOR ADJUSTING THE GRIDS HERE. THE 00Z GFS SHOWS 20-25 KT NE WINDS FUNNELING THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE THROUGH TONIGHT. THE GFS IS PREFERRED OVERALL FOR THE WIND DIRECTION DURING THIS TIME. THE MODELS GENERALLY UNDER FORECAST THE WINDS/SEAS FUNNELING INTO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE IN NE FLOW. WILL MAKE ADJUSTMENTS ACCORDINGLY TO THE GRIDS. IN THE TROPICAL ATLC...THE GFS APPEARS TO BE AS GOOD A SOLUTION AS ANY WITH THE SE WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE BEHIND THE INVERTED TROUGH PASSING E OF THE AREA LATE FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: 00Z ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. NWPS AND 00Z EC WAVE BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. THE 00Z GFS IS WEAK WITH THE FRESH TO STRONG S-SE WINDS OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST AND THE NE WINDS N OF PUERTO RICO COMPARED TO THE RECENT ASCAT PASSES. THE 00Z ECMWF HAS A BETTER HANDLE ON THIS...SO IT WAS USED TO ADJUST THE GRIDS HERE. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT HERE LATER TODAY AND ITS TIMING AS IT MOVES SE THROUGH EARLY SAT. DIFFERENCES ARISE WITH THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH BY LATE SAT...WITH THE GFS A FASTER/WEAKER OUTLIER COMPARED TO THE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS AS EXPLAINED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO SECTION. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND FARTHER SW THAN THE GFS AS IT CRANKS UP A STRONG SURFACE LOW SUN. THE UKMET AND ECMWF KEEP THE STRONGEST WINDS CLOSE TO OR AT STORM FORCE 00Z MON...WHILE THE GFS IS CONSIDERABLY FARTHER FROM THE COAST AND WAITS ANOTHER 6 HOURS TO BE DEEP ENOUGH FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A STORM WARNING IN THE FORECAST AREA. CONFIDENCE IS STILL TOO LOW TO PULL THE TRIGGER ON A STORM WARNING. THE ECMWF WAS USED TO ADJUST THE GRIDS WHICH HAD BEEN HEAVILY GFS. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ019...CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N BETWEEN 87W AND 94W... GALE WARNING TODAY INTO TONIGHT. .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE WARNING TODAY. .GMZ025...E BAY OF CAMPECHE INCLUDING CAMPECHE BANK... GALE WARNING TODAY INTO TONIGHT. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUN INTO MON. .AMZ115...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT INTO MON. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER SCHAUER. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.