000 AGXX40 KNHC 031959 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 259 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. FOR WAVEHEIGHTS BLENDED 12Z MWW3 AND SMALL PERCENTAGE OF TAFB NWPS PARAMETERS WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH FRI THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. AS OF 15Z THE COLD FRONT HAS REACHED A POSITION FROM THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE SW TO 26N92W TO 1010 MB LOW IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AT 20N95W THEN CONTINUES SW TO INLAND MEXICO AT 19N96W. RECENT BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT FOR THE TIME BEING WITH SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 6-8 FT. THE 15Z ASCAT PASS SHOWED SE WINDS OF 20 KT TO THE E AND SE OF THE FRONT WITH SEAS OF 4-7 FT. STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL BRING A SURGE OF STRONG THE NLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT INTO THU WITH WINDS REACHING THE STRONG RANGE OVER MUCH OF THE GULF WATER BEHIND THE FRONT. THE GFS...ECMWF...UKMET AND NAVGEM MODEL RUNS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING THESE WINDS WITH A SOLID SWATH OF N 30 KT WINDS SPREADING EASTWARD FROM THE SW GULF TO THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE FRONT REACHES FROM SW FLORIDA TO THE NE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE 15Z SREF MODEL RUN INDICATES A SIMILAR FORECAST WITH THE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT THROUGH THU WITH WINDS JUST BELOW GALE FORCE IN THE NEAR THE COAST OF VERACRUZ. BASED ON THE EXISTENCE OF 34 KT WIND PROBABILITIES CONTINUING FOR ALONG THE COAST OF VERACRUZ BY THE 15Z SREF MODEL GUIDANCE WILL CONTINUE WITH GALE FORCE WIND WARING FOR THE FAR SW PORTION OF GULF ZONE GMZ023 FOR THU MORNING TILL AROUND 03Z THU NIGHT. WILL HAVE TO WATCH ZONE GMZ025 AS IT WOULDN'T TAKE MUCH OF A TIGHTER GRADIENT TO BRING THE STRONG WINDS THERE TO GALE FORCE RANGE ON THU. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SE OF THE GULF EARLY ON FRI. HIGH PRES WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA INTO SAT. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE UKMET...THE GFS...ECMWF AND NAVGEM MODELS ARE SUBTLE IN SHOWING A TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN GULF ON SAT AS LOW PRES FORMS E OF FLORIDA N OF ABOUT 27N. THIS LOW WILL QUICKLY DEEPEN AS IT PULLS OFF TO THE NE THROUGH SUN NIGHT WHILE HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GULF WEAKENS AT THAT TIME. THE UKMET IS THE MOST STRONGEST WITH THE TROUGH WHERE IT SHOWS LOW PRES ALONG IT OFF THE W CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST SUN WITH STRONG NW WINDS TO ITS W. ALTHOUGH THEIR ARE SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCE WITH EXPECTED LOCATION OF THE LOW E OF FLORIDA...THE MODELS AGREE THAT THE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE ATLC LOW WILL IMPACT THE WIND FLOW REGIME OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL GULF INTO SUN NIGHT WITH FRESH NW-N WINDS EXPECTED. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING THESE WINDS DIMINISHING ON MON AS THE HIGH OVER THE WESTERN GULF SHIFTS S AND WEAKENS FURTHER. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. FOR WAVEHEIGHTS BLENDED 12Z MWW3 AND A SMALL PERCENTAGE OF TAFB NWPS PARAMETERS WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE 1502Z ASCAT PASS SHOWED FRESH SE WINDS JUST N OF THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND W OF 85W IN RESPONSE TO AN ESTABLISED SE FETCH AHEAD OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED COLD FRONT. A SWATH OF FRESH TO STRONG NE-E WINDS WAS OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 72W-78W. THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF AGREE IN THE WINDS OF 85W DIMINISHING TO MODERATE INTENSITY TONIGHT. THE WINDS IN THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE THROUGH SUN...PULSING TO 30 KT AS INDICATED BY THE HIGH RESOLUTION GFS THROUGH THU NIGHT AND CONTINUING IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE THROUGH LATE SUN NIGHT. MODELS AGREE THAT THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN AND YUCATAN CHANNEL THU NIGHT...AND REACH THE GENERAL LOCATION FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO NEAR BELIZE BY FRI NIGHT. THE FRONTAL REMNANT WILL THEN LIFT BACK TO THE N ON SAT. STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDING SE FROM GULF OF MEXICO WILL PUSH THE FRONT BACK TO THE S OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SAT NIGH...AND STILL APPEARS THAT IT WILL REACH FROM NEAR EASTERN CUBA TO NE HONDURAS SUN NIGHT ...AND FROM HAITI TO NORTHERN NICARAGUA MON. FRESH TO POSSIBLY NLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DIMINISH BY FRI EVENING...THEN MOVE INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN AGAIN LATE SAT NIGHT...AND SPREAD EASTWARD TO NEAR 84W BEFORE DIMINISHING MON AFTERNOON. AN INVERTED TROUGH HAS JUST ENTERED THE FAR NE TROPICAL N ATLC THIS AFTERNOON. THIS TROUGH WILL REMAIN RATHER WEAK AS IT MOVES NW ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN THU THROUGH FRI NIGHT. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. FOR WAVEHEIGHTS BLENDED 12Z MWW3 WITH A SMALL PERCENTAGE OF TAFB NWPS PARAMETERS INTO PREVIOUS OFFICIAL THROUGH THU NIGHT...USED HIGHER PERCENTAGE OF NWPS FOR NW PORTION FRI THROUGH MON. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH SAT...THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. THE 18Z ANALYSIS HAS A RIDGE 31N70W SW TO CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW NE-E MODERATE WINDS THROUGHOUT...EXCEPT FOR MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS S OF ABOUT 23N BETWEEN 72W-75W AND SE-S MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS W OF THE BAHAMAS. THE OBSERVATIONS SHOW SEAS IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE...EXCEPT FOR 6-8 FT IN NE SWELL E OF 70W AND 2-3 FT WITHIN THE WATERS OF THE BAHAMA ISLAND CHAIN. THE MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS W OF THE BAHAMAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THU EVENING AT WHICH TIME THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE NW WATERS. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR MINOR CHANGES WITH RESPECT TO THE FRONTAL FORECAST POSITIONS. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM NEAR 31N75W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND WESTER CUBA BY FRI MORNING...AND FROM 31N65W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND STATIONARY TO W CENTRAL SAT MORNING. THE FRONT WILL THEN LIFT BACK N AS A WARM FRONT BY EARLY ON SUN. LOW PRES WILL DEVELOP N OF THE BAHAMAS SAT NIGHT...AND PUSH A NEW COLD FRONT EASTWARD FROM 31N75W TO CENTRAL CUBA SUN MORNING. IT IS THEN EXPECTED TO REACH FROM NEAR 31N69W TO EASTERN CUBA SUN NIGHT...WITH GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS BY SUN NIGHT. AN INVERTED TROUGH NEAR 60W WILL SHIFT E TO 55W TONIGHT...THEN RETREAT NW THROUGH NEAR 65W FRI...AND WEAKEN AS IT MERGES WITH THE COLD FRONT SAT. BEYOND SAT...CONFIDENCE LOWERS TO MEDIUM DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO THE LOW PRES THAT FORMS N OF THE BAHAMAS. THIS WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE WITH THE FORECAST WINDS AND SEAS. GFS AND UKMET BRINGS STORM FORCE WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF ZONES 115 AND 116 MON AND THE EASTERN PART OF ZONE 111 WHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS STRONG GALE FORCE WINDS IN ALSO DEPICTING A DEEP LOW BUT MOVING IT MORE TO THE NE THAN THE GFS SUN AFTERNOON AS IT CROSSES NEAR 31N76W. WILL MAINTAIN SLON WITH GALE FORCE WINDS FOR ABOVE MENTIONED ZONES. IF NEXT RUNS OF THE GFS TREND TOWARDS STORM FORCE WINDS...THEN WILL ADJUST GRIDS TO REFLECT THIS AND THUS UP THE GALE WARNING HEADLINE TO STORM WARNING FOR THE AFFECTED ZONES. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE WARNING THU INTO THU NIGHT. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ111...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N W OF 77W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT. .AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.