000 AGXX40 KNHC 030737 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 237 AM EST WED FEB 3 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL THROUGH FRI THEN THE 00Z ECMWF ADDED FRI NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT. NWPS AND 00Z MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL THROUGH FRI NIGHT THEN THE 00Z EC WAVE ADDED THROUGH SUN NIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH FRI THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND THE ASCAT-B PASS FROM 0326Z SHOW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW THE ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 20-25 KT. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD BE TEMPORARY AS THE REINFORCING COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER TEXAS MAKES IT WAY ONSHORE TODAY. BOTH THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF AGREE ON WINDS INCREASING AGAIN TO AS HIGH AS 25 KT BY 12Z. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT. THE GFS SHOWS WINDS BRIEFLY REACHING GALE FORCE OVER A SMALL AREA ALONG THE COAST OF VERACRUZ AT 00Z THU...BUT THE ECMWF AND 00Z UKMET DO NOT AND THE 03Z SREF SHOWS NO CHANCE OF A GALE AT THAT TIME. THE CHANCE OF GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE SREF INCREASED MARKEDLY AFTER 12Z THU AND REMAINS ABOVE 50 PERCENT UNTIL 03Z FRI. THIS IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE SLIGHTLY STRONGER GFS FORECAST. THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE GFS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS HERE...SO WILL USE THE GFS TO ADJUST THE GRIDS WITH THIS FRONT. MORE UNCERTAINTY LIES IN THE FORECAST BEYOND FRI AS AN UPPER TROUGH PULLS EASTWARD TO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT ON THIS TROUGH...BUT THE UKMET AND EC ENS MEAN IS SLOWER. THE GEFS MEAN AGREES WITH THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH INCREASE THE SURFACE TROUGHING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL GULF FRI NIGHT AND THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OVER THE WEEKEND WHILE THE UKMET AND EC MEAN INCREASE TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN GULF BEGINNING EARLY SAT AND SHOW BROADER TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OVER THE WEEKEND. WILL SIDE WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR NOW...BUT WILL NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THINGS TREND SLOWER LIKE THE UKMET AND EC ENS MEAN. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL THROUGH FRI THEN THE 00Z ECMWF ADDED FRI NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT. NWPS AND 00Z MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL THROUGH FRI NIGHT THEN THE 00Z EC WAVE ADDED THROUGH SUN NIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH FRI THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...THE 00Z GFS CONTINUES TO PULSE WINDS TO 30 KT ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA THROUGH FRI MORNING. BY FRI NIGHT...THE GFS AND ECMWF BUILD MORE TROUGHING OVER THE SE GULF OF MEXICO WHICH DIMINISHES THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HERE AND BRINGS THE MAXIMUM WINDS DOWN TO 20-25 KT. THE UKMET IS SLOWER TO MOVE THIS TROUGHING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ALLOWS MAX WINDS TO REMAIN 30 KT THROUGH SUN MORNING. AS EXPLAINED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO SECTION...THE FASTER ECMWF/GFS SOLUTION IS PREFERRED WITH THE SURFACE PATTERN TO THE N. THE GFS...WHICH GENERALLY DEPICTS THE DIURNAL VARIABILITY HERE WELL...WILL BE USED TO ADJUST THE GRIDS. THE 00Z GFS...ECMWF...AND UKMET AGREE ON CARRYING THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL BY 06Z FRI. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THE GFS SEEMS TO BE HANDLING THE FRESH TO STRONG RETURN FLOW IN THE NW CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING WELL. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. THE GFS AND UKMET PUSH THE FRONT SLIGHTLY FARTHER S INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN FRI THAN THE ECMWF. ALL THREE MODELS AGREE ON DROPPING WINDS TO LESS THAN 20 KT BY 12Z SAT. AFTERWARD...THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION IS FAVORED IN THE SE GULF OF MEXICO. THEIR SOLUTIONS SEND A NEW COLD FRONT QUICKLY S THROUGH THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF 85W LATE SAT...ABOUT 6-12 HOURS FASTER THAN THE UKMET SOLUTION. THE GFS IS THE STRONGER OF THE FAVORED SOLUTIONS...CARRYING NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN AT 12Z SUN. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE DETAILS HERE...SO THE GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED TOWARD A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF. THE 00Z GFS SHOWS 20-25 KT NE WINDS FUNNELING THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE THROUGH THU NIGHT. THE GFS IS PREFERRED OVERALL FOR THE WIND DIRECTION DURING THIS TIME. THE MODELS GENERALLY UNDER FORECAST THE WINDS/SEAS FUNNELING INTO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE IN NE FLOW. WILL MAKE ADJUSTMENTS ACCORDINGLY TO THE GRIDS. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL THROUGH FRI THEN THE 00Z ECMWF ADDED FRI NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT. NWPS AND 00Z MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL THROUGH FRI NIGHT THEN THE 00Z EC WAVE ADDED THROUGH SUN NIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH FRI THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. THE RIDGE AXIS CURRENTLY ALIGNED NEAR 75W-76W WILL BECOME POSITIVELY TILTED...SLOWLY SHIFTING TO FROM BERMUDA TO SE FLORIDA BY WED NIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHT ON THE NW AND SE SIDES OF THE RIDGE AXIS...WITH A FRESH SE-S BREEZE EXPECTED OVER NW WATERS AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE OVER E CENTRAL WATERS AS AN INVERTED TROUGH STRENGTHENS E OF THE AREA. THE 00Z GFS APPEARS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS THROUGH THU NIGHT. THE 00Z MODELS AGREE ON THE COLD FRONT MOVING INTO NW WATERS THU AND THE INVERTED TROUGH CROSS W OF 65W BY FRI MORNING. FROM FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THE FORECAST BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN. AS EXPLAINED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO SECTION...THE GFS/ECMWF BECOME THE FAVORED SOLUTION WITH THE TROUGHING PULLING THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE SW N ATLC. BY LATE SAT...THE GFS AND ECMWF BEGIN TO DEVELOP LOW PRES SOMEWHERE OFF THE NE FLORIDA OR GEORGIA COAST WHILE THE UKMET WAITS UNTIL EARLY SUN MORNING. THE ECMWF STRENGTHENS THE LOW MORE QUICKLY JUST N OF THE AREA SUN THAN THE GFS OR UKMET. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE DETAILS OVER THE WEEKEND...SO A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF WAS USED TO ADJUST THE FORECAST. THIS BLEND LEAD TO A FORECAST FOR GALES SUN GENERALLY IN THE AREA N OF 27N. STORM FORCE WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT...BUT KEPT THEM OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN THE FORECAST FOR THE PATTERN. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE WARNING TODAY INTO THU. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ111...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N W OF 77W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT. .AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER SCHAUER. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.