000 AGXX40 KNHC 021825 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 125 PM EST TUE FEB 2 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. NWPS/MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT ALONG THE TEXAS COAST WILL REACH FROM SE LOUISIANA TO TAMPICO MEXICO TONIGHT...FROM MOBILE TO 19N94W WED...FROM N FLORIDA TO THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE THU...THEN MOVE SE OF THE AREA FRI. SCATTEROMETER AND SURFACE OBS INDICATE FRESH TO STRONG S-SE WINDS PREVAIL OVER MOST OF THE REGION...WITH SEAS TO 7-8 FT IN THE NW GULF AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE FIRST PUSH OF THE FRONT SOUTHWARD IN THE W GULF TONIGHT WILL INCREASE WINDS W OF THE FRONT TO 20-25 KT S OF 25N...THEN REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE WILL TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT WED NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT...PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF 20-30 KT WINDS W OF THE FRONT AND GALE FORCE WINDS BETWEEN 12Z-21Z IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE THU. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH FRI NIGHT. ALL NOW INDICATE LOW DEVELOPMENT IN THE EASTERN GULF THIS WEEKEND...WITH THE LOW DEEPENING OFF THE US EAST COAST SUN AND MON. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. NWPS/MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. HIGH CONFIDENCE. FRESH-STRONG TRADES IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL PULSE TO NEAR GALE WARNING FORCE IN EARLY MORNING HOURS INTO SAT MORNING. FRESH TO STRONG SE WINDS ALSO EXPECTED IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS THROUGH WED. A COLD FRONT REACHING THE YUCATAN CHANNEL LATE THU WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN THROUGH SAT. AN INVERTED TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC WILL EXTEND INTO THE AREA WED THROUGH THU...THEN WEAKEN AND DRIFT W INTO THE NE CARIBBEAN FRI. WINDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT IN THE E CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC WED-FRI AS THE TROUGH MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA. THE BEST CHANCE OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WED THROUGH THU NIGHT WILL BE DOWNSTREAM FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND S OF HISPANIOLA BASED ON MODEL GUIDANCE. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. NWPS/MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH SAT THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. FAIRLY BENIGN CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT...AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE AREA. WINDS WILL INCREASE E OF FLORIDA LATE TONIGHT INTO THU AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST THU NIGHT...EXTEND FROM 31N75W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA FRI...THEN STALL AND WEAKEN FROM 30N67W TO S FLORIDA SAT. AN INVERTED TROUGH NE OF PUERTO RICO WILL DRIFT EASTWARD THROUGH WED...THEN MOVE W TO AROUND 65W WED NIGHT TO EARLY FRI. THE TROUGH AND A WEAK LOW PRES ALONG THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE TROUGH AXIS SHOULD LINGER JUST E OF THE AREA THROUGH THU THEN WEAKEN AND DRIFT WEST INTO SE WATERS. MODEL GUIDANCE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THIS WEEKEND. EXPECT LOW DEVELOPMENT IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SAT...WITH THE LOW DEEPENING AS IT TRACKS NE ACROSS FLORIDA INTO NW WATERS SAT NIGHT THEN BOMBING OUT AS AN INTENSE LOW N OF THE AREA ALONG THE US EAST COAST. THIS SCENARIO WOULD CREATE A FAIRLY LARGE AREA OF GALE FORCE WINDS S OF THE LOW CENTER...AFFECTING NORTHERN WATERS BETWEEN 65W AND 78W SUN AFTERNOON INTO MON MORNING. 12-20 FT SEAS ARE POSSIBLE LATE SUN. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE WARNING THU. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ111...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N W OF 77W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUN INTO SUN NIGHT. .AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER MUNDELL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.