000 AGXX40 KNHC 020717 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 217 AM EST TUE FEB 2 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. NWPS AND MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE ECMWF HAS MADE A BIG CHANGE OVER ITS PAST FEW RUNS AWAY FROM THE MORE SLOWER AND MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH PASSING THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO THU AND FRI. IT NOW MORE CLOSELY RESEMBLES THE MODEL CONSENSUS FASTER/WEAKER MODEL CONSENSUS. THE GFS WAS USED TO ADJUST THE FORECAST...WITH GALE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED THU. GALES WERE EXTENDED SLIGHTLY LONGER INTO THU EVENING AS THE 03Z SREF STILL SHOWS AN 80 PERCENT CHANCE OF GALES AT THAT TIME. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE STRENGTH AND AREAL COVERAGE OF THE WINDS AT OR ABOVE THE ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 20-25 KT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. NWPS AND MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...THE 00Z GFS HAS TRENDED STRONGER WITH THE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND CARRIED GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THU. NONE OF THE OTHER MODELS OR ENSEMBLES SEEM TO SUPPORT GALES. OTHER THAN THAT...THE GFS LOOKS GOOD FOR ADJUSTING THE GRIDS HERE. IT CARRIES 30 KT WINDS EVERY MORNING THROUGH SAT. THE STATIONARY FRONT THAT HAS BEEN STRETCHED N OF THE TROPICAL ATLC IS FINALLY BREAKING DOWN...WITH A 1016 MB LOW PRES SYSTEM ANALYZED NEAR 26N65W AT 06Z. THE MODELS AGREE ON AMPLIFYING THE DEEP LAYER TROUGHING NEAR THIS SURFACE TROUGH BY ALLOWING ENERGY TO ROUND THE RIDGE OVER THE SW N ATLC AND MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THIS AREA. THE MODEL CONSENSUS CARRIES THE STRENGTHENING LOW PRES SYSTEM SOUTHEASTWARD TO NEAR 22N58W BY THU MORNING BEFORE IS WEAKENS TO A TROUGH AND RETURNS EASTWARD THROUGH THE NE CARIBBEAN TOWARD THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT PASSING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE SW N ATLC. THIS SHOULD MAKE FOR LIGHT WINDS AND POTENTIALLY AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AS MOIST...SOUTHERLY FLOW FEEDS INTO THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH/LOW PRIMARILY WED THROUGH SAT NIGHT. THE 00Z GFS IS SLIGHTLY WEAKER AND MORE NORTHERLY WITH THE LOW THAN THE OTHER MODELS...BUT IT IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS ON WINDS AND SEAS OVER THE AREA. AS STATED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO SECTION...THE TREND HAS BEEN TOWARD THE WEAKER/FASTER/MORE CONSISTENT GFS SOLUTION OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS OF RUNS WITH THE COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO PASS REACH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL EARLY FRI. THE 00Z UKMET AND ECMWF STILL CARRY THE FRONT FARTHER S THAN THE GFS. WILL STICK WITH THE TREND AND FAVOR THE WEAKER GFS SOLUTION. THE 00Z GFS SHOWS 20-25 KT NE WINDS FUNNELING THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TONIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT. THE GFS PREFERRED OVERALL FOR THE WIND DIRECTION. THE MODELS GENERALLY UNDER FORECAST THE WINDS/SEAS FUNNELING INTO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE IN NE FLOW. WILL MAKE ADJUSTMENTS ACCORDINGLY TO THE GRIDS. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. NWPS AND MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH THU THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. RATHER BENIGN CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK WINDS DOMINATE THE AREA. BY TUE NIGHT...WINDS WILL INCREASE TO A FRESH BREEZE OVER W WATERS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BUILDS BETWEEN A MERIDIONALLY ORIENTED RIDGE AXIS NEAR 73W ABUTS LOWER PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT. AT THE SAME TIME...A MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZE IS EXPECTED OVER SE WATERS WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRES SYSTEM N OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. THIS LOW AND AN ASSOCIATED TROUGH SHOULD LINGER JUST E OF THE AREA THROUGH THU BEFORE WEAKENING AND DRIFTING W INTO THE SE WATERS. MEANWHILE THE COLD FRONT IN THE GULF IS FORECAST TO REACH THE NW WATERS EARLY THU...THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THIS FRONT AS EXPLAINED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO SECTION. DIFFERENCES ARISE LATER ON THU AS THE 00Z GFS BECOMES FASTER THAN THE 00Z ECMWF AND 00Z UKMET MOVING THE FRONT E THROUGH N WATERS AND DOES NOT DIG THE FRONT AS FAR S THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT. THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE WEAKER/FASTER GFS. THE GFS IS PREFERRED FOR ADJUSTING THE GRIDS. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THU INTO THU NIGHT. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER SCHAUER. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.