000 AGXX40 KNHC 011902 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 202 PM EST MON FEB 1 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS/WW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL THROUGH 00Z SAT NIGHT...THEN ECMWF. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH WED NIGHT THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE GULF TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT REACHING THE TEXAS COAST TUE WILL EXTEND FROM S LOUISIANA TO TAMPICO TUE NIGHT...FROM FLORIDA BIG BEND TO 18N94W WED NIGHT AND FROM TAMPA BAY TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THU NIGHT...THEN MOVE SE OF THE AREA FRI. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE W OF THE FRONT IN BAY OF CAMPECHE THU. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE POSITION AND TIMING OF THE FRONT. EXPECT N-NE WINDS TO INTENSIFY W OF THE FRONT WED NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT... THEN SUBSIDE FRI. SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES APPEAR BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF AFTER 7/00Z. BOTH DEPICT AN AREA OF LOW PRES NEAR THE S TX COAST SAT NIGHT BUT THE GFS LOW TRACKS E THEN NE AND DEEPENS IT INTO A CLASSIC NOR'EASTER ALONG THE US EAST COAST...WHILE THE EC IS MUCH MORE RESTRAINED...MAINTAINING A WEAK LOW IN THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH MON NIGHT. WILL NEED TO WAIT FOR BETTER CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE MODELS FOR EXTENDED PORTION OF FCST...BUT WILL USE MORE CONSERVATIVE EC GUIDANCE FOR NOW. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS/WW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL THROUGH 00Z SAT NIGHT...THEN ECMWF. HIGH CONFIDENCE. FRESH-STRONG TRADES IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL PULSE TO 30 KT NEAR GALE FORCE EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH FRI MORNING. FRESH-STRONG SE WINDS EXPECTED IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS TONIGHT THROUGH WED. A COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL LATE THU AND EXTEND FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO GULF OF HONDURAS FRI NIGHT. AN BROAD INVERTED TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC WILL MOVE N OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC TUE...STRENGTHEN AND EXTEND INTO THE NE PORTION OF THE AREA WED THROUGH THU...THEN WEAKEN AND DRIFT WEST ON FRI. WINDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT IN THE E CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC WED THROUGH FRI AS THE TROUGH MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA. THE BEST CHANCE OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS MID-WEEK WILL BE DOWNSTREAM FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS/WW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL THROUGH 00Z SAT NIGHT...THEN ECMWF. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH THU NIGHT THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A RIDGE FROM BERMUDA TO CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL WEAKEN THROUGH TUE AS HIGH PRES SHIFTS NE INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC. A STRONGER RIDGE MOVING OFF THE US EAST COAST WILL EXTEND FROM 42N60W TO THE BAHAMAS WED...IN A POSITION BETWEEN AN INVERTED TROUGH ALONG 55W MOVING WEST AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IN NE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WILL INTENSIFY NE WINDS BETWEEN 60W-70W WED THROUGH THU... AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE E OF FLORIDA WED AND WED NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NW WATERS THU NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STRETCH FROM 31N77W TO MIAMI FLORIDA FRI MORNING AND FROM 31N72W THROUGH THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO N CUBA FRI NIGHT. THE INVERTED TROUGH WILL REACH 60W THU NIGHT...THEN WEAKEN AS IT MOVES N OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS FRI. THE BEST CHANCE OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT WILL BE IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. GFS MODEL TENDS TO UNDER FORECAST NE WINDS IN THIS SCENARIO...SO WILL CONTINUE TO BUMP THEM UP A BIT IN DAY 2-4 FORECASTS. GREATER UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST BEYOND SUN NIGHT. GFS APPEARS TOO AGGRESSIVE DEVELOPING A NOR'EASTER ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO GEORGIA COASTAL WATERS. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THU. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER MUNDELL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.