000 AGXX40 KNHC 010654 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 154 AM EST MON FEB 1 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL THROUGH 12Z THU THEN 12Z/31 ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. NWPS AND MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL THROUGH 12Z THU THEN 12Z/31 EC WAVE BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH WED NIGHT THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. THE 00Z GFS...00Z UKMET...AND 12Z/31 ECMWF ARE ALL IN AGREEMENT ON WINDS IN THE NW GULF INCREASING TO THE ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 20-25 KT BY 06Z TUE...WITH THE FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE OFFSHORE AROUND 09Z. THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE ECMWF AND UKMET UNTIL THE REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR MOVES INTO THE GULF LATE WED. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING IN THE GULF FROM EARLY THU THROUGH THE TIME OF THE FRONT CLEARS THE GULF EARLY FRI. THE ECMWF AND UKMET HOLD ONTO A MORE WIDESPREAD AREA OF 20-25 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ON FRI THAN THE GFS WHICH IS MORE NORTHEASTERLY. THE GFS BECOMES A WEAKER AND FASTER OUTLIER WITH THE H5 TROUGH SUPPORTING THE REINFORCING FRONT LATE THU INTO FRI AMONG BOTH THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND THE ENSEMBLES. THEREFORE...THE ECMWF WAS USED TO ADJUST THE FORECAST THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL THROUGH 00Z FRI THEN 12Z/31 ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. NWPS AND MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL THROUGH 00Z FRI THEN 12Z/31 EC WAVE BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH THU THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...THE 00Z GFS HAS TRENDED WEAKER WITH THE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND DOES NOT SHOW THEM REACHING 30 KT UNTIL EARLY THU MORNING. THE RAPIDSCAT PASS BACK AT 2244Z...CLOSE TO THE DIURNAL MINIMUM...SHOWED AN AREA OF 25-30 KT NE WINDS FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 73.5W AND 75.5W. NONE OF THE MODELS ARE THIS STRONG. THE UKMET SHOWS WINDS REACHING 30 KT EVERY MORNING DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS SEEMS TO AGREE BETTER WITH RECENT OBSERVATIONS AS WELL AS THE PAST FEW DAYS WHICH SAW OBSERVATIONS OF WINDS AT OR GREATER THAN 20-25 KT OVER A LARGER AREA THAN THE MODELS SUGGESTED. WILL FAVOR THE STRONGER UKMET FOR ADJUSTING THE WIND GRIDS AND THE NWPS FOR THE WAVE GRIDS AS IT IS BASED ON STRONGER WINDS. IN THE TROPICAL ATLC...THE MODELS AGREE ON CARRYING AN INVERTED TROUGH AND POSSIBLY A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM JUST N OF THE AREA BY TUE. THIS SHOULD MAKE FOR LIGHT WINDS AND POTENTIALLY AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AS MOIST...SOUTHERLY FLOW FEEDS INTO THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH/LOW PRIMARILY TUE NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE 00Z GFS AGREES WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS WHILE THE 12Z/31 ECMWF IS ON THE WEAK SIDE...EVEN COMPARED TO THE EC ENS MEAN. THE GFS IS PREFERRED FOR ADJUSTING THE GRIDS UNTIL FRI WHEN THE ECMWF IS FAVORED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE SW N ATLC WHICH SHOULD BEGIN TO INFLUENCE THE WEAKENING TROUGH AS IT SHIFTS W. THE MODELS DIVERGE WITH THE TRACK OF THE COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE CARIBBEAN BY FRI. AS EXPLAINED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO SECTION...THE 00Z UKMET AND 12Z/31 ECMWF HAVE A MORE NORTHERLY WIND TRAJECTORY BY EARLY FRI AND SEND THE FRONT FARTHER S INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. THE UKMET AND ECMWF STRETCH THE FRONT FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS BY 18Z FRI WHILE THE GFS SHOWS THE FRONT FROM JUST W OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH TO COZUMEL. THE GFS IS AN OUTLIER WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTING THIS FRONT COMPARED TO BOTH THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND THE ENSEMBLES. THE ECMWF/EC WAVE WAS USED TO ADJUST THE GRIDS WITH THE FRONT. SEE THE SECTION BELOW FOR DETAILS ABOUT THE WINDWARD PASSAGE LATE TUE TROUGH THU NIGHT. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL THROUGH 12Z THU THEN 12Z/31 ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. NWPS AND MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL THROUGH 12Z THU THEN 12Z/31 EC WAVE BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH WED NIGHT THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. RATHER BENIGN CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUE AS HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK WINDS DOMINATE THE AREA. BY TUE NIGHT...WINDS WILL INCREASE TO A FRESH BREEZE OVER W WATERS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BUILDS BETWEEN A MERIDIONALLY ORIENTED RIDGE AXIS NEAR 72W ABUTS LOWER PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT. AT THE SAME TIME...A MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZE IS EXPECTED OVER SE WATERS WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE AFOREMENTIONED INVERTED TROUGH N OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. THIS INVERTED TROUGH SHOULD LINGER JUST E OF THE AREA THROUGH THU BEFORE WEAKENING AND DRIFTING W INTO THE SE WATERS. MEANWHILE THE COLD FRONT IN THE GULF IS FORECAST TO REACH THE NW WATERS EARLY THU...WITH THE 00Z GFS A FASTER AND WEAKER SOLUTION WITH THE FRONT THAN THE 12Z/31 ECMWF AND 00Z UKMET. AS STATED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND TROPICAL ATLC SECTIONS...THE 12Z/31 ECMWF WAS USED TO ADJUST THE FORECAST AS THE GFS BECOMES A WEAK/FAST OUTLIER THU/FRI. THE SAME HOLDS TRUE HERE. THE BEST CHANCE OF WINDS EXCEEDING ADVISORY CRITERIA PRIOR TO THIS FRONT MOVING OFFSHORE IS ALONG THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA AND INTO THE ATLC APPROACHES TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE LATE TUE THROUGH THU NIGHT AS THE HIGH PRES RIDGE BECOMES ORIENTED JUST N OF THE AREA. THE MODELS GENERALLY UNDER FORECAST THE WINDS/SEAS FUNNELING INTO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE IN NE FLOW. WILL MAKE ADJUSTMENTS ACCORDINGLY TO THE GRIDS. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THU. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER SCHAUER. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.