000 AGXX40 KNHC 311845 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 145 PM EST SUN JAN 31 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS/ECMWF BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FCST. NWPS AND MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS GENTLE TO MODERATE S-SE WINDS IN THE EAST-CENTRAL GULF. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE GULF THROUGH MON NIGHT. PRIMARY FORECAST UNCERTAINTY CONCERNS COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO REACH THE TEXAS COAST TUE. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF HAVE TRENDED TOWARD WEAKER 20-25 KT NORTHERLY FLOW IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT TUE NIGHT AND WED...BUT HOWEVER FOLLOWED BY A SURGE OF STRONGER 25-35 WINDS W OF THE FRONT WED NIGHT TO FRI. SO WILL USE A BLEND OF GFS AND EUROPEAN MODELS WHICH MAINTAINS WINDS JUST BELOW GALE IN THE SW GULF OF MEXICO. DO NOT SEE MUCH DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS THROUGH FRI EXCEPT FOR 3-6 HOURS TIMING. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS/ECMWF BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FCST. NWPS AND MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. HIGH CONFIDENCE. SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE TRADES IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC AND MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN EXCEPT FOR A SMALL AREA OF 25 KT WINDS NEAR COAST OF COLOMBIA. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE N OF THE AREA WILL SHIFT E-NE THROUGH WED. ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...THE GFS IS TRENDING STRONGER WITH WINDS APPROACHING MINIMAL GALE DURING THE EARLY MORNING DIURNAL MAXIMUM FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD. THE NWPS IS RUNNING HIGHER THAN THE MWW3 IN THIS AREA...SO IT WAS USED TO BUMP UP THE SEAS TO MORE CLOSELY MATCH THE WINDS. MWW3 AND NWPS BUILD SEAS TO 8 FT IN NE SWELL THROUGH WED OVER FAR SE WATERS. AN INVERTED TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT WESTWARD NE OF THE AREA TUE THROUGH FRI. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL FRI. SE WINDS WILL INCREASE IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS MON NIGHT THEN REMAIN FRESH TO STRONG THROUGH THU NIGHT...AHEAD OF THIS NEXT FRONT THAT WILL APPROACH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL THU NIGHT. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. NWPS AND MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. HIGH CONFIDENCE. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND ASCAT DATA INDICATE LITTLE REMAINS OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH PUSHED INTO THE AREA FRI. LIGHT TO GENTLE ELY WINDS PREVAIL OVER MOST OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR BERMUDA WILL SHIFT NE THROUGH TUE. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE E OF FLORIDA TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO REACH NW WATERS LATE THU. AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL DRIFT WESTWARD E OF THE AREA TUE THROUGH THU...REACHING 60W FRI. THE BEST CHANCE OF WINDS REACHING 25 KT IS ALONG THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA AND ATLC APPROACHES TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TUE-THU. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THU INTO THU NIGHT. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER MUNDELL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.