000 AGXX40 KNHC 301842 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 142 PM EST SAT JAN 30 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. NWPS AND MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS HIGH PRES SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN ATLC OCEAN. SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS OVER MOST OF THE AREA...WITH MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE NW GULF. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH MON NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS E OF THE AREA. A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE TEXAS COAST TUE WILL REACH FROM SE LOUISIANA TO TAMPICO MEXICO TUE NIGHT AND FROM FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO VERACRUZ MEXICO WED. WINDS WILL INCREASE OFF THE COAST OF VERACRUZ TO NEAR GALE WED. MODELS APPEAR TO HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT...WITH NONE EXPLICITLY SHOWING GALE FORCE WINDS. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: THE GFS BLENDED WITH THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. MWW3 AND NWPS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A STATIONARY FRONT FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO THE NE COAST OF NICARAGUA WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE TONIGHT. TRADE WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE EAST-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH SUN AS HIGH PRES BUILDS N OF AREA. SE WINDS WILL INCREASE IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS MON NIGHT AND TUE. ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...GFS AND UKMET SHOW WINDS PULSING TO 30 KT EARLY SUN MORNING...WITH WINDS INCREASING BACK TO 30 KT EARLY WED. WILL LEAN ON THE GFS/UKMET FOR ADJUSTING WINDS HERE. IN THE TROPICAL ATLC...THE MWW3 BUILDS SEAS TO 8 FT IN NE SWELL SUN THROUGH WED OVER FAR SE WATERS. GIVEN THE MODELS HAVE BEEN WEAK WITH MID-ATLANTIC TRADES COMPARED TO SCATTEROMETER DATA... WILL LEAN TOWARD THE MWW3 HERE. OVER N WATERS...THE MODELS AGREE ON CARRYING AN INVERTED TROUGH JUST NE OF THE AREA WED AND THU. THIS COULD LEAD TO LIGHT WINDS AND INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. NWPS BLENDED WITH MWW3. HIGH CONFIDENCE. SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS BEHIND A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM 25N65W TO THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA PREVAILS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION. THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND BECOME DIFFUSE ALONG 24N-25N THROUGH SUN NIGHT. HIGH PRES RIDGE WILL BUILD NE OF FLORIDA THROUGH MON. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE E OF FLORIDA TUE NIGHT AND WED AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT...EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST OF NE FLORIDA THU MORNING. DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS ARE MINOR. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... .NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER MUNDELL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.