000 AGXX40 KNHC 300643 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 143 AM EST SAT JAN 30 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. NWPS AND MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WILL SHIFT E OF THE AREA TODAY. THE 0310 UTC ASCAT-B PASS SHOWED A FRESH SOUTHERLY BREEZE HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE NW GULF BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE 00Z GFS...12Z/29 ECMWF...AND 00Z UKMET GENERALLY AGREE ON WINDS REMAINING A FRESH SOUTHERLY BREEZE HERE THROUGH MON NIGHT WHEN A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA. THERE IS AGREEMENT THAT WINDS WILL BRIEFLY INCREASE TO A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE AHEAD OF THE FRONT MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. THE ECMWF IS FASTER THAN THE GFS AND UKMET TO BRING THE FRONT TO THE COAST AND INTO THE GULF...BUT THEY ARE ALL IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY. THE EC ENS MEAN PREFERS A SLIGHLTY SLOWER SOLUTION THAN THE OPERATIONAL RUN WHILE THE GEFS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SLOWER GFS/UKMET TIMING. WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE GFS. THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT WINDS WILL INCREASE OFF THE COAST OF VERACRUZ TO NEAR GALE OR GALE FORCE WED. THE MODELS APPEAR TO HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT...WITH NONE OF THIS LATEST GROUP EXPLICITLY SHOWING GALE FORCE WINDS. WITH UNCERTAINTY STILL RELATIVELY HIGH IN A FORECAST THIS FAR OUT IN THE PERIOD...DO NOT FEEL COMFORTABLE DROPPING THE GALE CONDITIONS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST FOR ZONE GMZ023 JUST YET. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: THE GFS BLENDED WITH THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. MWW3 AND NWPS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...THE 00Z GFS AND UKMET SHOW WINDS PULSING TO 30 KT THROUGH EARLY MON MORNING WHILE THE ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY WEAKER. THE GFS GENERALLY PERFORMS BETTER WITH OROGRAPHICALLY INFLUENCED WINDS HERE. BOTH THE GFS AND UKMET AGREE ON WINDS INCREASING BACK TO A MAXIMUM OF 30 KT IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WED. WILL LEAN ON THE GFS/UKMET FOR ADJUSTING WINDS HERE. IN THE TROPICAL ATLC...THE MWW3 BUILDS SEAS TO 8 FT IN NE SWELL SUN THROUGH WED OVER SE WATERS. GIVEN THE MODELS HAVE BEEN WEAK WITH THE TRADE WINDS E OF THE AREA COMPARED TO SCATTEROMETER DATA...WILL ADJUST SEAS TOWARD THE MWW3 HERE. OVER N WATERS...THE MODELS AGREE ON CARRYING AN INVERTED TROUGH AND POSSIBLY A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EITHER JUST N OR NE OF THE AREA WED. THIS SHOULD MAKE FOR LIGHT WINDS AND POTENTIALLY AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AS MOIST...SOUTHERLY FLOW FEEDS INTO THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH/LOW LATE IN THE PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN ANY ONE SOLUTION AT THIS TIME. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. NWPS BLENDED WITH MWW3. HIGH CONFIDENCE. GALE CONDITIONS HAVE SHIFTED E OF THE OFFSHORES AREA THIS MORNING...BUT WINDS TO 30 KT CONTINUE BEHIND THE FRONT PRIMARILY OVER NE WATERS. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT. THE MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON SUBSIDING SEAS BELOW 8 FT BY SUN EVENING. THE GFS IS FAVORED WITH THE PRESSURE PATTERN OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE SW N ATLC AND THE CENTRAL ATLC SUN ONWARD. SEE THE GULF OF MEXICO SECTION FOR DETAILS. DIFFERENCES DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD ARE MINOR...HOWEVER...AS THE FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NW WATERS UNTIL THU OR FRI. THE ECMWF IS THE FASTEST SOLUTION...BUT IT STILL AGREES WITH THE GFS/UKMET ON INCREASING THE SOUTHERLY FLOW TO A FRESH BREEZE IN NW WATERS WED. THE GFS AND NWPS/MWW3 WERE RELIED ON HERE TO ADJUST THE GRIDS. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WED INTO WED NIGHT. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER SCHAUER. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.