000 AGXX40 KNHC 290701 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 201 AM EST FRI JAN 29 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. NWPS AND MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH TODAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT HAS MOVED OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE SLIGHTLY LOWER SEA HEIGHTS SEEN IN THE MWW3 MATCHED THE OBSERVATIONS BETTER THAN THE EC WAVE AT 00Z. THE 00Z GFS AND 12Z/28 ECMWF SHOWED A SIMILAR AREAL EXTENT OF THE 20-25 KT WINDS...WHICH SEEMED TO REASONABLY MATCH THE OBSERVATIONS. A FRESH SOUTHERLY BREEZE SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE NW GULF LATE FRI NIGHT AS PRESSURES LOWER OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES BETWEEN THAT LOWER PRESSURE AND HIGH PRES NEAR FLORIDA. THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT E INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC SUN. THE GFS DIVERGES FROM THE MODEL CONSENSUS AS THIS POINT AS IT CARRIES LOW PRES OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FASTER THAN THE OTHER MODELS. THE GFS WEAKENS THE RETURN FLOW COMPARED TO THE ECMWF AS A RESULT...BUT IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z UKMET. THE GFS AND UKMET ALSO AGREE ON INCREASING WINDS IN THE NW GULF TO A STRONG BREEZE AT 06Z TUE...LATER THAN THE 12Z/28 ECMWF WHICH IS CONSIDERABLY FASTER WITH THE COLD FRONT OVER TEXAS AT THAT TIME. THE UKMET THEN BECOMES THE SLOWEST SOLUTION INTO WED...WITH THE GFS LOOKING LIKE A COMPROMISE. THE GEFS SIDES WITH THE GFS AND THE EC ENS MEAN SIDES WITH THE ECMWF. CONFIDENCE WANES A BIT BY SUN...BUT THE GFS SEEMS TO HAVE MORE SUPPORT FROM THE UKMET. WILL STICK WITH THE GFS WHEN ADJUSTING THE GRIDS. WILL USE THE MWW3 AND NWPS...WHICH WAS PRIMARILY BASED ON THE GFS...TO ADJUST THE WAVE FORECAST. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: STRONGER SOLUTION THAN THE GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL THROUGH EARLY SUN...THEN THE GFS BLENDED WITH THE OFFICIAL. EC WAVE AND NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL THROUGH EARLY SUN...THEN MWW3 AND NWPS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. THE 00Z GFS AND 12Z/28 ECMWF CARRY A STRONG BREEZE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. THE ECMWF CARRIES THESE WINDS THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...AND THIS MATCHES THE LATEST ASCAT-B PASS BETTER THAN THE GFS. THE EC WAVE HAS HIGHER SEAS IN THE AREA THAN THE MWW3. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE LONG FETCH AND THE WIND COUNTER TO THE CURRENT HERE. THE ECMWF AND EC WAVE WERE USED TO ADJUST THE GRIDS TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE FRONT WEAKENS. ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...THE 00Z GFS AND 12Z/28 ECMWF SHOW WINDS PULSING TO 30 KT EARLY SUN MORNING. THE AREAL EXTENT IS GREATER IN THE GFS THAN THE ECMWF. THE GFS GENERALLY PERFORMS BETTER WITH OROGRAPHICALLY INFLUENCED WINDS HERE. THE GFS KEEPS THE WINDS TO NEAR GALE FORCE IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS THROUGH MON MORNING WHILE THE ECMWF ENDS THEM A DAY EARLIER AND THE UKMET KEEPS THEM AROUND INTO TUE MORNING. THE TIMING WILL BE TIED TO THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE COMPROMISE GFS WAS PREFERRED THERE...AND A BLEND OF THE NWPS AND IT IS PREFERRED HERE AS WELL FROM LATE SAT ONWARD. IN THE TROPICAL ATLC...BOTH THE MWW3 AND EC WAVE ALLOW SEAS TO SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT BY 00Z SAT. THEIR SOLUTION ARE ALSO SIMILAR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...WITH THE MWW3 SLIGHTLY HIGHEST IN THE FAR SE PORTION UNDER TRADE WIND FLOW FROM EARLY MON ONWARD. WITH THE GFS PREFERRED WITH THE PRESSURE PATTERN N OF THE AREA...WILL STICK WITH THE MWW3 SOLUTION HERE. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. NWPS BLENDED WITH MWW3. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. THE 00Z GFS CARRIES 40 KT WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT STRETCHED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH WINDS BELOW GALE FORCE BEHIND THE FRONT. THE 00Z UKMET AND 12Z/28 ECMWF CAP WINDS AT 40 KT. THEY AGREE WITH THE GFS BY KEEPING THE WINDS BELOW GALE FORCE BEHIND THE FRONT. THE GFS AND UKMET MAINTAIN GALE FORCE WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH 06Z SAT WHILE THE ECMWF DROPS THEM BY 18Z TODAY. THE GEFS STILL SHOWS A 100 PERCENT CHANCE OF GALES AT 18Z TODAY...AND DOES NOT LOWER THE CHANCE TO ZERO UNTIL 18Z SAT. GIVEN THE ENSEMBLE SUPPORT...WILL SIDE WITH THE STRONGER GFS FOR ADJUSTING THE GRIDS. THE GFS IS ALSO FAVORED WITH THE PRESSURE PATTERN OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE SW N ATLC AND THE CENTRAL ATLC SUN ONWARD. SEE THE GULF OF MEXICO SECTION FOR DETAILS. THE GFS AND NWPS/MWW3 WERE RELIED ON HERE TO ADJUST THE GRIDS. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W... GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY INTO TODAY. .AMZ115...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W... GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY INTO TODAY. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER SCHAUER. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.