000 AGXX40 KNHC 281853 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 153 PM EST THU JAN 28 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: ECMWF STATIONARY FRONT LINGERS ACROSS THE NE GULF TODAY FROM BIG BEND TO NEAR 26N86W THEN COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW THEN SSW AND MOVING SE INTO W COAST OF YUCATAN CHANNEL. ~1030Z RAPIDSCAT PASS DEPICTED ELONGATED SFC LOW ALONG A TROUGH...WITH LOW NEAR 26N86W AND ABOUT 90 NM SE OF FRONT. LOW HAS SINCE MOVED NE WITH TROUGH TRAILING SW TO YUCATAN...WITH COLD FRONT STILL SLIGHTLY TO THE NW OF THIS FEATURE. 16Z ASCAT PASSES SHOW NW WINDS 30-35 KT ACROSS MOST OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND EXTENDING ABOUT 150 NM NW. I DROPPED GALE WARNINGS FOR GULF WITH MORNING UPDATE...FOLLOWING GFS FORECAST FOR GALES ENDING BY 15-18Z. HOWEVER ECMWF HAS BETTER FORECAST THIS LOW DEVELOPMENT AND PERSISTING GALES. SEAS PER ECWAVE ARE 12-17 FT ACROSS W 2-3RDS OF BAY OF CAMPECHE...WITH WW3 MAX ONLY 14 FT AND GWES MAX 17-18 FT AND IN AGREEMENT WITH ECWAVE. FRONT TO PROGRESS SE TODAY...WITH TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH YUCATAN CHANNEL AND W HALF OF STRAITS THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY COLD FRONT THIS EVENING. NW WINDS WILL BRIEFLY INCREASE IMMEDIATELY BEHIND FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS IT MOVE ACROSS E AND SE PORTIONS...AND THEN BEGIN TO DIMINISH TO 20-25 KT TONIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 20 KT ACROSS ALL BUT WRN STRAITS BY 12Z FRI. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT AND FRI WITH SEAS FINALLY FALLING BELOW 8 FT ACROSS WRN STRAITS AND YUCATAN CHANNEL LATE FRI AFTERNOON. A 1025 MB HIGH WILL MOVE E INTO THE NW GULF EARLY FRI THEN SHIFT ENE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF REACHING OVER CENTRAL FL ON SAT. FRESH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP ACROSS THE NW GULF BEGINNING FRI NIGHT THEN DIMINISH SOME OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE SOUTHERLY FLOW SPREADS E ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF ON SUN. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW GULF OF MON NIGHT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS FRESH TO STRONG E TRADES CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS TODAY AND EXTEND N TO THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE GREATER ANTILLES E OF JAMAICA. RECENT ALTIMETER DATA SHOWED 8 FT SEAS IN THE LEE OF BARAHONA PENINSULA OF DOM REP WITH SEAS TO 10 FT AS FAR N AS 16N ALONG 71.5W. FADING NLY SWELL STILL MIXING WITH WIND SWELL MOVING INTO E AND NE CARIB TODAY FOR ROUGH SEAS. FRENCH BUOY IN COASTAL WATERS OF MARTINIQUE STILL HOLDING AT 8 FT LATE THIS MORNING IN MIXED SWELL. WINDS ACROSS NW PORTIONS HAD DIMINISHED AHEAD OF APPROACHING TROUGH AND FRONT IN GULFMEX OVERNIGHT...NOW WITH WELL DEFINED AND FORECAST TROUGH EXTENDING FROM GULF OF HONDURAS TO WRN STRAITS OF FL. MODELS DEPICTS NW WINDS 20-25 KT BUILDING INTO GULF OF HONDURAS TODAY BEHIND THE TROUGH...THEN COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS YUCATAN CHANNEL THIS EVENING AND REACH FROM CENTRAL CUBA ALONG 79W TO FAR NE HONDURAS BY 12Z FRI. ATLC RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO RETREAT NEXT FEW DAYS AND RELAX PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE ERN CARIB FOR SUBSIDING TRADES AND SEAS THERE. FRONT TO REACH FROM ERN CUBA TO NEAR SHORE COASTAL WATERS OF NICARAGUA BY 12Z SAT THEN STALL DURING THE DAY...AND BEGIN TO DRIFT BACK TOWARDS THE NW BY 12Z SUN AND BACK INTO THE NW CARIB. NW WINDS 20-25 KT BEHIND FRONT WILL SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF NW CARIB BRIEFLY FRI WITH POTENTIAL FOR WINDS TO 30 KT AROUND CORNER OF HONDURAS-NICARAGUA BORDER. HOWEVER THIS PATTERN FORECAST TO BE BRIEF...AND MODELS ONLY GENERATE SEAS 7-10 FT THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON BEFORE SLOWLY ABATING. AGAIN...ECWAVE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN WW3 WITH THIS BRIEF EVENT. HIGH PRES BEHIND THE FRONT AND SHIFTING ENE ACROSS GULFMEX FRI THROUGH SAT WILL MOVE ACROSS FL PENINSULA SAT AND INTO SW N ATLC SAT NIGHT TO RE ESTABLISH MODEST PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE BASIN...AND FRESHEN ELY TRADES. NOCTURNAL MAX OFF OF COLOMBIA TO REACH 30 KT SAT-SUN-MON NIGHTS AS THIS OCCURS. STRONG SE FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS ON MON NIGHT AS FLOW ACROSS W PORTIONS OPENS UP INTO GULFMEX AHEAD OF NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS STATIONARY FRONT HUNG UP ACROSS FAR NW WATERS AND NE FL...WITH CONVERGENCE LINE/TROUGH TO THE SE...ACROSS S FL AND NE INTO OFFSHORE WATERS. STRONGEST CNVTN HAS CONTINUED TO FIRE ALONG THIS SECOND BOUNDARY. MODELS REMAIN IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH WEAK LOW MOVING FROM ERN GULF NE ACROSS THE PENINSULA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND REFORMING OVER NW WATERS THIS EVENING AS IT BEGINS TO MERGE WITH COLD FRONT. MODELS HAD BEEN HINTING IN RECENT DAYS AT STRONG TO GALE FORCE SW WINDS ACROSS SE SEMICIRCLE OF MESO LOWS NEAR AND TO THE NE OF THE NW BAHAMAS MOVING AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. ECMWF HAS REMAINED FAIRLY CONSISTENT AND SHOWS GALES BY 00Z TONIGHT FROM N OF BAHAMAS NNE TO 31N76W. MEANWHILE...12Z GFS HAS BECOME VERY AGGRESSIVE AND NOW SHOWING GALES AT THIS SAME TIME EXTENDING FROM COASTAL WATERS OFF OF PALM BEACH NNE TO SAME GENERAL AREA...BUT BROADER COVERAGE. WITH THIS IN MIND ADJUSTMENTS WILL NEED TO BE MADE AS WE HAVE NO ATLC GALES UNTIL 12Z FRI ACROSS FAR NE WATERS. LOW FORECAST TO LIFT OUT OF AREA OVERNIGHT WITH COLD FRONT REACHING 31N72W TO CENTRAL CUBA BY 12Z FRI THEN 30N60W TO E CUBA SAT 12Z WHERE IT WILL BEGIN TO STALL. SW GALES TO CONTINUE E OF FRONT ACROSS N PORTIONS OF ZONES THROUGH FRI EVENING BEFORE SHIFTING OUT OF AREA. 12Z RUNS OF GFS AND UKMET NOW SHOWING CHANCE FOR BRIEF GALES BEHIND FRONT OVERNIGHT IN NWLY FLOW N OF 28N BEFORE LIFTING N OF AREA BY MORNING. WILL WAIT FOR 12Z ECMWF TO COME IN BEFORE ISSUING GALES FOR THIS. A POST- FRONTAL RIDGE WILL BUILD FROM W TO E ALONG 28N ON SAT...THEN BECOME ORIENTATED FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO NE FL ON SUN AND MON AND BRING A RETURN TO E TO ESE TRADES S OF 23N AND GENERALLY MILD CONDITIONS. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W... GALE WARNING TONIGHT INTO FRI. .AMZ115...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W... GALE WARNING TONIGHT INTO FRI. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.