000 AGXX40 KNHC 271901 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 201 PM EST WED JAN 27 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. COLD FRONT HAS CONTINUED TO PROGRESS SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY...NOW REACHING FROM ERN FL PANHANDLE TO 23.5N93W TO CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE...WHERE NLY FLOW HAS BEGUN TO SPILL THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. VERY RECENT 1546Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS NWLY WINDS 30-40 KT FROM BRO SOUTHWARD TO VERACRUZ AREA...AND W OF 95.5W. BUOY 42055 HAS JUMPED UP TO 12 FT...WHICH IS MORE IN LINE WITH ECWAVE GUIDANCE THAN WW3. THIS WOULD SUGGEST THAT SEAS 15-16 FT ARE LIKELY OFFSHORE OF TAMPICO AND SEAS 10-12 FT BUILDING IN ON VERACRUZ AREA. A TROUGH STILL PREVAILS ABOUT 180 NM SE OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND ERN GULF AND REMAINS FOCUS FOR STRONG CNVTN ERN PORTIONS. MODELS MAINTAIN CLEAR CUT SEPARATE IDENTITIES OF THE FRONT AND THROUGH THROUGH THU BEFORE THEY START TO MERGE AS FRONT ENTERS YUCATAN CHANNEL THU AFTERNOON-EVENING. HAVE THUS ALTERED SYNOPSIS TO REFLECT THIS. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON FRONTAL MOVEMENT AND DEVELOPING LOWS ALONG TROUGH NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH GFS AND ECMWF VERY CLOSE WITH LOCATION OF LOW BOTH IN GULF AND W ATLC. ECMWF STILL REMAINS A BIT SLOWER WITH FRONTAL MOVEMENT AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER WIND BEHIND FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO NW CARIB THU NIGHT. GALES CURRENTLY W AND SW PORTIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE SHIFTING S OF 21N TONIGHT WHERE THEY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 15Z THU BEFORE ENDING. PEAK SEAS ACROSS SW PORTIONS EXPECTED AT 15-18 FT PER ECWAVE 00Z-12Z THU...WHILE WW3 NEVER GET ABOVE 14 FT...AND GWES MAX PEAKS AT 15-18 FT TONIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO INCORPORATE THIS INTO FORECAST. FRONT TO REACH FL BIG BEND TO W COASTAL WATERS OF YUCATAN PENINSULA BY 12Z THU...MOVE ACROSS STRAITS OF FL AND YUCATAN CHANNEL AROUND 00Z FRI...AND THEN SE OF AREA LATE THU NIGHT. LINGERING NLY SWELL TO MAINTAIN SEAS AOA 8 FT ACROSS YUCATAN CHANNEL AND STRAITS THROUGH 12Z FRI BEFORE SUBSIDING BELOW 8 FT. EXPECT A POST-FRONTAL HIGH OF ABOUT 1024 MB TO SHIFT EWD INTO WRN GULF FRI AND THEN SLIDE ENE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF REACHING OVER CENTRAL FL ON SAT. FRESH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP ACROSS THE NW GULF BEGINNING FRI NIGHT WITH MODERATE RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF ON SUN...INCREASING TO FRESH AGAIN ACROSS THE NW GULF ON MON AS NEXT STRONG FRONT MOVES INTO SE TEXAS. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. ATLC HIGH PRES RIDGE GRADUALLY RETREATED NE ACROSS CENTRAL ATLC TODAY WITH WITH SUFFICIENT RIDGING INTO CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO PRODUCE FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ACROSS MOST OF BASIN E OF 80W. GALES HAVE ENDED ACROSS THE COLOMBIAN BASIN LATE THIS MORNING AS SAMPLED BY A 15Z ASCAT PASS. FLOW OPENING UP INTO THE GULF ACROSS NW AND N CENTRAL PORTIONS WHERE SE TO ESE WINDS 15-20 KT PREVAIL...WITH ISOLATED ZONES AROUND 20 KT. THERMAL TROUGH ACROSS GULF OF HONDURAS INDUCING SE WINDS 20 KT OUTER WATERS THERE...WHERE SEAS ARE STILL 6-8 FT. A 14Z ALTIMETER PASS SAMPLED MAX SWH AREA OFF COLOMBIA AND DEPICTED SEAS 12-14 FT THERE AND TO 11 FT AS FAR N AS 16.5N. RIDGE TO CONTINUE TO RETREAT TO THE ENE NEXT 48 HOURS AS FRONT ENTERS NW CARIB AND YUCATAN CHANNEL THU EVENING. MODELS INDICATED PRE FRONTAL TROUGH TO PERSIST ACROSS STRAITS AND NW CARIB THU NIGHT AND FRI AS FRONT MOVES INTO BASIN. THIS WILL ALLOW NWLY WINDS 20-25 KT TO BUILD IN BEHIND TROUGH AND BRIDGE ACROSS FRONT. SEAS EXPECTED TO REACH 7-8 FT IN YUCATAN CHANNEL BY 06Z FRI AND BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO GULF OF HONDURAS BY 12Z. TRADES TO WEAKEN E OF 80W AS RIDGE WEAKENS CONSIDERABLY IN ADVANCE OF FRONT. CONSENSUS POSITION OF FRONT PUT IT CENTRAL CUBA ALONG 80W TO NICARAGUAN COASTAL WATERS BY 12Z FRI...WITH NLY WINDS 20 KT SPILLING DOWN COAST BEHIND IT...AND THEN BECOMING STATIONARY FROM FAR ERN CUBA TO NICARAGUAN COASTAL WATERS 12Z SAT. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. GRADUALLY RETREATING RIDGE PRODUCING FRESH SE TO S FLOW ACROSS MOST OF AREA TODAY...AHEAD OF GULFMEX FRONTAL SYSTEM. FRESH SE TRADES PREVAIL ACROSS SE WATERS AND THROUGH THE BAHAMAS. LINGERING TROUGH REMAINS SW TO NE ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA AND INTO NE FL COASTAL WATERS WHERE OBS AND RECENT PARTIAL ASCAT PASS SUGGEST SFC LOW DEVELOPING INVOF 29N79W AND WILL SHIFT NE THROUGH TONIGHT. S TO SW WINDS SHOULD BE OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM SE SEMICIRCLE. STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS TROUGH NEXT 24-36 HOURS AT LEAST AS JET ENERGY OVERRIDES IT AND TROUGH SHIFTS E-SE AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONT. FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NE FL BY 12Z THU WITH SFC TROUGH JUST SE AHEAD OF IT...AND A SECONDARY LOW ACROSS THE E GULF SHIFTING NE ALONG TROUGH THU AND ACROSS NW WATERS. PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN RIDGE AND TROUGH WILL INDUCE S TO SW WINDS 20-30 KT E AND SE OF TROUGH LATE THU...AND WITH AND JUST AHEAD OF FRONT AS IT MOVE INTO NW WATERS BEHIND TROUGH THU EVENING. FRONT TO REACH FROM 31N71W TO NW BAHAMAS BY 12Z FRI AND FROM 26N65W TO SE BAHAMAS AND ERN CUBA BY 12Z SAT WHERE IT WILL BEGIN TO STALL. SWLY FLOW AHEAD OF TROUGH EXPECTED TO STRENGHTEN TO GALE FORCE FRI MORNING ACROSS NE WATERS BEFORE SHIFTING NE OUT OF AREA FRI EVENING. HIGH PRES TO SHIFT ENE OFF SE U.S. COASTS OVERNIGHT SAT AND INDUCE GRADUALLY VEERING WINDS BEHIND STALLED FRONT...VEERING S TO SE ACROSS W WATERS SUN AFTERNOON THROUGH MON. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W... GALE WARNING TODAY INTO TONIGHT. .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE WARNING TODAY INTO THU. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ115...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FRI. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.