000 AGXX40 KNHC 261941 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 241 PM EST TUE JAN 26 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. ATLC RIDGE IS RETREATING ATTM AS COLD FRONT IS MOVING INTO NW GULF...CURRENTLY FROM SW LA TO JUST N OF BRO. PRE FRONTAL TROUGH WAS EVIDENT THIS MORNING ACROSS NW PORTIONS WHILE THERMAL TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED SW PORTIONS AND OVER WATER. STRONG SELY FLOW OF PAST 24 HOURS GENERATED SEAS 6-8 FT ACROSS LARGE PART OF W HALF OF BASIN THAT HAS FALLEN SLIGHTLY IN PAST FEW HOURS. PEAK SEAS NOW PROBABLY 7 FT. N TO NNE WINDS 20-25 KT BUILDING IN BEHIND FRONT ATTM...WHILE FRESH SE FLOW E PART KEEPING SEAS 4-6 FT. MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH FRONT AND CYCLOGENESIS...WITH GLOBAL MODELS DEVELOPING LOW AHEAD OF FRONT ALONG SFC TROUGH...WHICH IS LIKELY THERMAL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER SW GULF...WHILE FRONT TRAILS FURTHER BACK TO THE NW. FRONT TO REACH FL BIG BEND TO 25N94W TO WRN BAY OF CAMPECHE BY 12Z WED AND THEN TAMPA BAY TO WRN COAST OF YUCATAN BY 12Z THU AND THEN INTO NW CARIB THU NIGHT AND FRI. FRONT LOOKS TO FINALLY MERGE INTO BACKSIDE OF EXITING LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH ON THU AS THEY MOVE ACROSS SE PORTIONS. ECMWF HAS SHOWN BROADEST SFC CYCLONE IN RECENT RUNS AND HAS BEEN 6-12 HOURS SLOWER IN CLEARING THE BASIN. 12Z RUN OF ECMWF STILL SLOWER AND IS ALSO IN LINE WITH ENSEMBLE MEANS AND THUS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE ECMWF WITH PROGS THROUGH DAY 3. GALES EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEHIND FRONT TONIGHT BY 06Z ACROSS THE CENTRAL MEXICAN WATERS AND THEN SPREAD S...WITH GALES REACHING VERACRUZ REGION BY 12Z. GALES TO THEN END WELL BEHIND FRONT BY 06Z THU AND BY 18Z THU VERACRUZ AREA. WAVE MODELS SHOWING SIGNIFICANT SPREAD WITH WW3 TOO SLOW IN WAVE GROWTH AND BEHIND THE FASTER ECWAVE. ECWAVE SHOWING SEAS 10-14 FT BEHIND FRONT BY 12Z WED WHILE WW3 ONLY 9-11 FT AT THAT TIME. PEAK SEAS THU FORECAST 12-18 FT ACROSS SW PORTIONS BY ECWAVE WHILE WW3 IS 12-15 FT...AND GWES MAX PEAKS AT 15-19 FT WED NIGHT THROUGH THU. THUS 18 FT LOOKS GOOD. HAVE BLENDED IN MODEST PORTION OF ECWAVE BUT WILL HAVE TO USE MORE TO NUDGE TOWARDS THIS PEAK OF 18. HIGH PRES TO SHIFT INTO NW PART OF BASIN FRI BEHIND FRONT AND THEN SHIFT ENE AND INTO ATLC THROUGH EARLY SUN...AS RETURN FLOW SETS UP IN ADVANCE OF NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH PRES ACROSS ATLC NOW SHIFTING NE OF BERMUDA AND INDUCING WINDS ACROSS THE CARIB TO VEER TO A MORE TYPICAL E DIRECTION. STRONG WINDS HAS DIMINISHED THROUGH WINDWARD PASSAGE IN THIS SCENARIO BUT STILL FRESH S OF CUBA AND VEERING ESE THROUGH YUCATAN...WHERE SEAS SHOULD BE BUILDING TO 5-7 FT. STRONG TRADES CONTINUE ACROSS S CENTRAL PORTIONS...WHERE GALES ENDED BY 15Z THIS MORNING. 42058 WAS UP TO 10 FT AT 12Z. BROAD FIELD OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS THEN EXTENDED N TO 18N OVERNIGHT PERSIST ATTM AND MAINTAINING SEAS AS HIGH AS 8 FT N TO 17N THIS AFTERNOON. 42059 HOLDING AT 7 FT UNDER FRESH ELY FLOW. MEANWHILE...LONG PERIOD NLY SWELL PREVAILS ACROSS TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS AND BLEEDING THROUGH E CARIB PASSAGES...WITH MORNING ALTIMETER DATA SHOWING SEAS TO 9 FT JUST OFFSHORE OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA. ATLC RIDGE WILL SHIFT E-SE NEXT 48 HRS WITH CURRENT PRES GRADUALLY RELAXING BEGINNING WED AFTERNOON THROUGH FRI. GALES EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT OFF OF COLOMBIA BY ENDING BY 12Z WHILE FRESH TRADES ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 55-75W THROUGH LATE THU. STRONG E TRADES WILL DEVELOP BRIEFLY TONIGHT ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS. GULFMEX COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW CARIBBEAN THU AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING...REACH FROM E CUBA TO NICARAGUA LATE THU NIGHT...AND FROM HAITI TO COSTA RICA LATE FRI NIGHT WHERE IT WILL STALL AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH SAT NIGHT. N-NWLY FLOW BEHIND FRONT NOT FORECAST AS STRONG AS LAST FRONT AND ONLY TO REACH 20-25 KT AND 6-9 FT THU THROUGH EARLY FRI. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. WEAKENING FRONT IS BECOMING DIFFUSE AND SHIFTING WWD AS ATLC HIGH SHIFTS ENE AND WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO VEER. RETURN FLOW PREVAILING W OF 70W IN ADVANCE OF GULFMEX COLD FRONT. NLY SWELL DOMINATES REGIONAL SEAS WITH LARGE AREA OF 8 TO 11 FT ACROSS SE HALF OF AREA WHICH MATCHES ECWAVE MUCH BETTER THAN WW3. RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT ESE AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN WED THROUGH END OF WEEK AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. FRONT AND WEAK LOW TO MOVE OFF WED NIGHT WITH FRONT REACHING INTO EXTREME NW WATERS TO NEAR DAYTONA BEACH BY 12Z THU. MODELS IS REASONABLE AGREEMENT AND SIGNIFICANT CYCLOGENESIS NOT EXPECTED WITH LOWS UNTIL LIFTING OUT OF AREA LATE THU THROUGH FRI. AGAIN...ECMWF SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH FRONT AND LIFTING LOW ACROSS FL...AND HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS THAT. FRONT TO REACH 31N71W TO CENTRAL CUBA ALONG 79W BY 12Z FRI AND ACROSS SE WATERS TO TURKS AND CAICOS BY 12Z SAT. SW GALES EXPECTED AHEAD OF FRONT EARLY FRI ACROSS NE WATERS THAT WILL SHIFT OUT OF AREA FRI EVENING. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W... GALE WARNING TONIGHT INTO WED. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WED NIGHT. .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE WARNING WED. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WED NIGHT INTO THU. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE WARNING TODAY INTO TONIGHT. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.