000 AGXX40 KNHC 260605 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST TUE JAN 26 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. NWPS BLENDED WITH MWW3. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. AN E TO W SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF IS CURRENTLY IN A WEAKENING TREND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ENTERING THE NW GULF JUST BEFORE SUNRISE. THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM THE MS DELTA TO THE W BAY OF CAMPECHE TONIGHT WITH STRONG N-NE FLOW DEVELOPING INITIALLY ACROSS THE NW GULF...THEN SPREADING S ACROSS THE W-CENTRAL AND SW GULF WATERS BY LATE TONIGHT WHILE INCREASING TO NEAR GALE FORCE MOST AREAS WITH AN EMBEDDED BAND OF MINIMAL GALE WINDS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE W-CENTRAL WATERS TONIGHT. THESE MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD SE REACHING ACROSS THE WATERS S OF 21N W OF 94W ON WED AFTERNOON...AND PERSIST THROUGH SUNRISE ON THU. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM THE FL BIG BEND TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ON WED EVENING WITH A 1011 MB LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT NEAR 26N85W WED NIGHT AND RACING NE ACROSS CENTRAL FL EARLY THU DRAGGING THE FRONT THROUGH THE FL STRAITS LATE THU AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATED WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 20KT OR LESS ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF ON THU EVENING...AND ASSOCIATED SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF LATE THU NIGHT. EXPECT A POST- FRONTAL SURFACE 1021 MB HIGH TO DEVELOP OVER THE NW GULF NEAR 27N96W ON THU AND SHIFT ENE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF REACHING OVER N FL AT SUNRISE ON SAT. FRESH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP ACROSS THE NW GULF BEGINNING FRI NIGHT WITH MODERATE RETURN ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF ON SUN. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. NWPS BLENDED WITH MWW3. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. STRONG NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO THE N OF JAMAICA THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. MINIMAL GALE FORCE NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA THROUGH THE EARLY DAYLIGHT HOURS THIS MORNING...THEN BEGIN AGAIN TONIGHT INTO EARLY WED MORNING. STRONG TO NEAR GALE NE-E TRADES WILL CONTINUE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 68-80W TODAY WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENING TODAY SUPPORTING STRONG NE-E WINDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN E OF 80W TONIGHT INTO MIDDAY ON THU. THE GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY RELAX BEGINNING WED AFTERNOON WITH FRESH TRADES FORECAST ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 55-75W LATE THU. STRONG E TRADES WILL DEVELOP BRIEFLY TONIGHT ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS. A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW CARIBBEAN ON WED NIGHT...REACH FROM E CUBA TO NICARAGUA LATE THU NIGHT...AND FROM HAITI TO COSTA RICA LATE FRI NIGHT. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG N FLOW WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT ON THU EVENING AND THEN DIMINISH FROM THE W ON FRI WITH ONLY A BAND OF STRONG N WINDS EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST OF NICARAGUA OF FRI AFTERNOON INTO FRI EVENING. STRONG NOCTURNAL NE WINDS WILL RESUME ALONG THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF COLOMBIA ON FRI NIGHT. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. NWPS BLENDED WITH MWW3. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 26N55W TO 23N61W THEN BECOMES STATIONARY TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. REMNANTS OF THIS FRONT WILL LIFT N TONIGHT AND WED WHILE GRADUALLY DISSIPATING. NW SWELLS CONTINUE TO MIX WITH SE SWELL ACROSS THE WATERS E OF 72W RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS OF 6-9 FT. THESE SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TODAY WITH 6-8 FT SEAS FORECAST ACROSS THE TROPICAL WATERS E OF THE BAHAMAS ON WED. A POST FRONTAL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM BERMUDA TO PORT CANAVERAL FL AT SUNRISE THIS MORNING WILL RETRACT E TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT REACHING THE SE GA COAST AT SUNRISE ON WED. A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE SAME FRONT IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON WED AND LEAP ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA TO NEAR 29N78W EARLY THU. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO RACE NE ALONG THE FRONT PASSING THROUGH 31N79W THU EVENING WHILE DRAGGING THE COLD FRONT E ACROSS THE WESTERN BAHAMAS. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM BERMUDA TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE ON FRI AFTERNOON WITH MINIMAL GALE SOUTHERLY WINDS POSSIBLE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 28.5N WITHIN ABOUT 420 NM E OF THE FRONT ON THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI.STRONG POST- FRONTAL WINDS WILL DEVELOP ONLY ACROSS THE WATERS N OF THE BAHAMAS ON THU NIGHT...WITH THESE CONDITIONS SHIFTING N OF 31N ON FRI AFTERNOON. A POST-FRONTAL SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT E OFF THE FL COAST AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS ON SAT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W... GALE WARNING TONIGHT INTO WED NIGHT. .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE WARNING WED INTO WED NIGHT. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WED NIGHT INTO THU. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY INTO WED. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.