000 AGXX40 KNHC 251859 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 159 PM EST MON JAN 25 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS NE TO SW ACROSS THE GULF TODAY FROM NE FL-SE GA TO THE CENTRAL MEXICAN COAST. STRONG SE-S RETURN FLOW SET UP OVERNIGHT AND KICKED UP SEAS 8-10 FT ACROSS NW PORTIONS...WHERE 42019 PEAKED AT 10 FT AT 12Z. RECENT SCAT DATA SHOWS THAT WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS THE TEXAS AND LA COASTAL WATERS AS A TROUGH HAS SET UP OFFSHORE IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT IN NW TEXAS. WEAK WINDS NOW LOOK TO BE AROUND 25 KT ACROSS SW PORTIONS WHERE SEAS ARE LIKELY 5-8 FT. THE RIDGE WILL QUICKLY RETRACT E EARLY TONIGHT WITH COLD FRONT TO ENTER THE NW GULF WATERS AROUND 12Z TUE. MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT INITIALLY WITH BOUNDARY...WITH BEGIN TO DIVERGE AFTER 48 HOURS SOMEWHAT AS DIFFERING SOLUTIONS FOR CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE FRONT OCCUR. AS IS TYPICAL IN STRONG SRN STREAM JET SCENARIOS THE GFS IS FASTEST WITH LIFTING A LOW OUT TO THE NE AND INTO ATLC...WHILE EURO MODELS SLOWER...AND 00Z RUN OF ECMWF DEVELOPING SIGNIFICANT LOW ACROSS ERN GULF WED NIGHT-THU. HAVE USED THE GEFS MEAN FOR CONSENSUS FRONTAL POSITIONS. GLOBAL MODELS IN AGREEMENT OF GALES DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICAN COASTAL WATERS BEHIND FRONT TUE NIGHT AND SPREADING TO OFFSHORE OF VERACRUZ BY 12Z WED. FRONT TO REACH BIG BEND TO CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE BY 12Z WED AND CENTRAL FL TO YUCATAN PENINSULA BY 12Z THU. GALES TO CONTINUE SW PORTIONS THROUGH 12Z THU BEFORE DIMINISHING. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THIS SEASON...WW3 SEVERAL FT LOWER THAN ECWAVE WITH THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND AM BLENDING STRONG PERCENTAGE OF ECWAVE...WHERE PEAK SEAS BEHIND FRONT FORECAST TO REACH 17 FT IN BAY OF CAMPECHE EARLY THU WHILE WW3 DOES REACH 16 FT A BIT FARTHER NW IN AREA OF GALES. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM ERN DOM REP TO SW CARIB ALONG 80W AND ALREADY BEGINNING TO DRIFT WWD S OF JAMAICA. STRONG NE WINDS DEPICTED IN MORNING SCAT DATA BLASTING THROUGH WINDWARD PASSAGE AND THAN CONTINUING SW ON EITHER SIDE OF JAMAICA...AND DOWNSTREAM OF MONA PASSAGE TO NEAR 72W. ALTIMETER DATA DID SAMPLE SOME OF THIS AND SHOWED SEAS 7-8 FT BETWEEN JAMAICA AND HAITI AND ALSO 7-9 FT WELL S OF JAMAICA TO 14N. MODERATE ELY TRADES PREVAIL E OF 70W WHILE NNE TO NE WINDS 15-20 KT STILL ACROSS SW PORTIONS ON BOTH SIDES OF DISSIPATING FRONT. TYPICALLY STRONG NE WINDS ALONG THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TO MINIMAL GALES WARNING FORCE THIS AFTERNOON...AND REACH MINIMAL GALES TONIGHT AS HIGH SHIFTS E INTO W ATLC...WITH WINDS PULSING AGAIN TO GALES TUE NIGHT. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS E AND PASSES DUE N OF THE BASIN...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN THROUGHOUT TODAY SUPPORTING STRONG NE-E WINDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN ELSEWHERE BETWEEN 70-78W TONIGHT...WITH STRONG E TRADES EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA BETWEEN 55-80W LATE TUE NIGHT INTO MIDDAY ON WED. THE GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY RELAX ON WED NIGHT INTO THU...WITH FRESH TRADES FORECAST ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 55-75W. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW CARIBBEAN THU AND SWEEP ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS TO CENTRAL CUBA BY FRI MORNING. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS COLD FRONT APPEARS TO HAVE STALLED FROM ABOUT 23N65W TO CENTRAL DOM REP...WHERE IT IS STARTING TO DRIFT WWD. HIGH PRES SHIFTING E ACROSS THE SW N ATLC WATERS ALONG 30-31N IS N OF BAHAMAS AND WILL SLIDE NE NEXT 24 HOURS AND FORCE FRONTAL REMNANTS TO LAY DOWN MORE NE TO SW ACROSS CENTRAL ATLC...AND TIGHTEN PRES GRADIENT N OF THE OLD BOUNDARY...PRODUCING FRESH TO STRONG ENE TO E WINDS S OF 22N W OF 70W INTO CUBA. LARGE NW TO N SWELL GENERATED BY THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED LOW THIS WEEKEND IS PROPAGATING S AND SE ACROSS THE WATERS...WITH BUOYS E OF 75W REPORTING SEAS 10-13 FT THIS MORNING AND NOW 9-12 FT...ALL ABOUT 2-3 FT HIGHER THAN WW3 GUIDANCE. AGAIN HAVE BLENDED IN ECWAVE TO ATTEMPT TO ACCOUNT FOR WW3 LOW SWELL BIAS. PEAK OF THE NW SWELL WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SE WATERS AND INTO TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS TONIGHT AND TUE...WHILE N TO NNE SWELL GENERATED ACROSS WRN SEMICIRCLE OF DEEP LOW THIS WEEKEND NOW ENTERING WRN WATERS AND WILL PROPAGATE SW AND TO HISPANIOLA AND PR TUE MORNING WITH MINOR SWELL ENERGY MOVING W OF THE BAHAMAS AND INTO SE FL COASTAL WATERS. HIGH PRES AND ASSOCIATED RIDGE WILL SHIFT E BY TUE NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT REACHING THE SE GA COAST ON WED AFTERNOON. A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE SAME FRONT IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON WED AND LEAP ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA AND INTO SW N ATLC THU. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO RACE NE ALONG THE FRONT AND OUT OF THE AREA THU EVENING WHILE DRAGGING THE COLD FRONT E ACROSS THE WESTERN BAHAMAS. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM BERMUDA TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE ON FRI AFTERNOON. STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE SW WINDS WILL DEVELOP N OF 25N E OF THE FRONT ON THU NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRI NIGHT. MODELS IS REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON FRONTAL POSITION AND TIMING OF LOW. 12Z ECMWF JUST NOW COMING IN AND LOOKS TO HAVE SHIFTED MORE IN LINE WITH GFS SOLUTION...AND IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAN 00Z RUNS. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT INTO WED. .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WED INTO WED NIGHT. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE WARNING TONIGHT. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.