000 AGXX40 KNHC 250543 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1243 AM EST MON JAN 25 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. NWPS BLENDED WITH MWW3. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A SURFACE RIDGE DISSECTS THE GULF FROM THE FL BIG BEND TO THE TX COASTAL BEND WITH STRONG SE-S RETURN FLOW CURRENTLY ACROSS THE GULF WATERS W OF 94W. THE RIDGE WILL QUICKLY RETRACT E EARLY TONIGHT ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO ENTER THE NW GULF LATE TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM THE MS DELTA TO THE W BAY OF CAMPECHE EARLY TUE NIGHT WITH STRONG N-NE FLOW DEVELOPING INITIALLY ACROSS THE NW GULF...THEN SPREADING S ACROSS THE W- CENTRAL WATERS AND SW WATERS BY LATE TUE NIGHT WHILE INCREASING TO NEAR GALE FORCE. AN EMBEDDED BAND OF MINIMAL GALE WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE W-CENTRAL WATERS ON WED MORNING...WITH THESE GALE CONDITIONS SHIFTING SE ON WED AFTERNOON REACHING ACROSS THE WATERS S OF 21N W OF 94W ON WED EVENING AND PERSISTING THROUGH WED NIGHT. ALL OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT AT LEAST ONE SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE E GULF ALONG THE FRONT ON WED. USING A MODEL BLEND LEADS TO A SOLUTION WHERE A SINGLE 1011 MB LOW DEVELOPS NEAR 25N85W ON WED AFTERNOON AND RACES NE ACROSS CENTRAL FL WED NIGHT DRAGGING THE FRONT THROUGH THE FL STRAITS ON THU AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO 20 KT OR LESS ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF ON THU EVENING...AND SEAS SUBSIDING TO LESS THAN 8 FT ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF LATE THU NIGHT. EXPECT A POST-FRONTAL SURFACE HIGH TO DEVELOP NEAR 25N95W EARLY FRI AND SHIFT ENE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF REACHING NEAR 28N84W AT SUNRISE ON SAT SETTING UP FRESH RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE NW GULF. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. NWPS BLENDED WITH MWW3. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM HAITI TO W PANAMA WILL GRADUALLY LOSE IDENTITY THROUGH TUE. STRONG NE WINDS ARE OBSERVED IN AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE TUE...BUT SHIFT NW ACROSS THE WATERS N OF JAMAICA. STRONG NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED BRIEFLY JUST TO THE S OF EASTERN CUBA THIS MORNING. STRONG NE WINDS WILL ALSO DEVELOP S OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC EARLY THIS MORNING. STRONG NE WINDS ALONG THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TO NEAR GALE FORCE THIS AFTERNOON...AND REACH MINIMAL GALE FORCE TONIGHT AND THEN AGAIN ON TUE NIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN THROUGHOUT TODAY SUPPORTING STRONG NE-E WINDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN ELSEWHERE BETWEEN 70-78W TONIGHT...WITH STRONG E TRADES EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA BETWEEN 55-80W LATE TUE NIGHT INTO MIDDAY ON WED. THE GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY RELAX ON WED NIGHT INTO THU...WITH FRESH TRADES FORECAST ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 55-75W. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW CARIBBEAN WED NIGHT...REACH FROM E CUBA TO NICARAGUA LATE THU NIGHT...AND FROM HAITI TO COSTA RICA LATE FRI NIGHT. STRONG N FLOW WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE ON THU EVENING AND THEN DIMINISH FROM THE W ON FRI WITH A BAND OF STRONG N WINDS EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST OF NICARAGUA OF FRI AFTERNOON INTO FRI EVENING. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. NWPS BLENDED WITH MWW3. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 31N58W TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WILL NEARLY STALL FROM 26N55W TO THE MONA PASSAGE TODAY. REMNANTS OF THE FRONT WILL LIFT N ON TUE AND WED WHILE GRADUALLY DISSIPATING. SOUTHWESTERLY GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE FAR NE WATERS...GENERALLY N OF 29N E OF 56W...WILL SHIFT E OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH ASSOCIATED WINDS DIMINISHING TO 20 KT OR LESS ACROSS THE DISCUSSION WATERS W OF 55W LATER THIS MORNING. MAXIMUM SEAS OF 16 FT ARE CURRENTLY OBSERVED ALONG 31N BETWEEN 60-65W WITH SEAS OF 8-15 FT ELSEWHERE TO THE N OF 20N BETWEEN 55W- 75W. THESE SEAS WILL SUBSIDE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH 8-11 FT SEAS EXPECTED TONIGHT ACROSS THE WATERS E OF 72W...AND 6-8 FT SEAS FORECAST ACROSS THE TROPICAL WATERS E OF THE BAHAMAS ON WED NIGHT. A POST FRONTAL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM 31N74W TO HAITI THIS MORNING WILL RE-ORIENTATE FROM BERMUDA TO PORT CANAVERAL FL LATE TUE. THE RIDGE WILL RETRACT E ON TUE NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT REACHING THE SE GA COAST ON WED AFTERNOON. A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE SAME FRONT IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON WED AND LEAP ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA TO NEAR 29N78W EARLY THU. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO RACE NE ALONG THE FRONT PASSING THROUGH 31N75W THU EVENING WHILE DRAGGING THE COLD FRONT E ACROSS THE WESTERN BAHAMAS. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM BERMUDA TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE ON FRI AFTERNOON. STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS WILL DEVELOP N OF 25N E OF THE FRONT ON THU NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRI NIGHT. LATEST GUIDANCE IS A LITTLE LESS AGGRESSIVE THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...AND SUGGEST THAT STRONG POST- FRONTAL WINDS WILL DEVELOP ONLY ACROSS THE WATERS N OF THE BAHAMAS ON THU NIGHT...WITH THESE CONDITIONS SHIFTING N OF 31N ON FRI AFTERNOON. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WED. .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WED INTO WED NIGHT. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE WARNING TONIGHT INTO TUE. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT INTO WED. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.