000 AGXX40 KNHC 241930 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 230 PM EST SUN JAN 24 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. NWPS BLENDED WITH MWW3. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH WED. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BEYOND WED. SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM SE US TO THE SW GULF. NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS E GULF ARE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING WITH MODERATE RETURN FLOW ESTABLISHED OVER THE WESTERN GULF THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE HIGH THAT IS SUPPORTING THE SURFACE RIDGE SLIDING EAST TO BERMUDA THROUGH TUE. AS THIS OCCURS...FRESH TO STRONG RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT W OF 93W OVER THE GULF AND CONTINUE INTO THE DAY MONDAY. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL THEN BECOME ORIENTED MORE WEST TO EAST OVER THE N GULF COAST ON MON NIGHT...RESULTING IN A RELAXING OF THE RETURN FLOW SOMEWHAT OVER THE W GULF. GLOBAL MODELS ARE ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE NW GULF ON TUE AND EXTEND FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE SW GULF BY WED MORNING. STRONG N TO NW WINDS WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT WITH MODELS AGREEING ON NEAR GALE TO MINIMAL GALE WINDS MAINLY S OF 24N W OF 95W STARTING WED AM...EXPANDING S TO 19N THROUGH THE DAY...AS THE FRONT CONTINUES SE AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE E GULF. LATEST GFS RUN HAS BACKED OFF SOMEWHAT ON INTENSIFICATION OF THE LOW AS IT CROSSES FLORIDA ON WED NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE LATEST ECMWF IS MUCH MORE ROBUST AND WOULD RESULT IN STRONGER WINDS OVER THE E GULF COMPARED THE GFS SOLUTION. REGARDLESS...THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE STRONG NW WINDS ACROSS ALL OF THE W GULF AND A LARGE PORTION OF THE E GULF WED NIGHT THROUGH THU. WINDS WILL DIMINISH FROM W TO E OVER THE GULF THU AND THU NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN OVER THE W GULF. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. NWPS BLENDED WITH MWW3. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A STATIONARY FRONT FROM HISPANIOLA TO PANAMA WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE FROM SW TO NE THROUGH TUE. FRESH TO STRONG N WINDS W OF THE FRONT TO NICARAGUA WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT. SEAS OVER THIS AREA CURRENTLY TO 11 FT WILL DECREASE BELOW 8 FT BY SUNRISE MON. ALSO TO THE W OF THE FRONT...NORTHERLY WINDS ARE INCREASING OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO JAMAICA AND ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN FRESH TO STRONG WHILE VEERING TO THE NE TONIGHT. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO THE S OF HISPANIOLA ON MON. AS THE RIDGE OVER THE SE US MOVES TO THE E TOWARD BERMUDA THROUGH TUE...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL TIGHTEN RESULTING IN INCREASING NE TO E WINDS N OF THE COLOMBIA COAST. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A BRIEF GALE TUE MORNING BEFORE PULSING DOWN SLIGHTLY DURING THE DAY TUE. A BROAD AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TUE TO THROUGH WED ACROSS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN E OF 80W. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO ON WED AND WED NIGHT...ENTERING THE NW CARIBBEAN ON THU WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN THU AND THU NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GLOBAL CONSENSUS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. NWPS BLENDED WITH MWW3. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH WED. LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER. A COLD FRONT FROM E OF BERMUDA TO HISPANIOLA WILL CONTINUE EAST THROUGH TONIGHT. GALE WINDS BOTH E AND W OF THE FRONT WILL SHIFT N OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY NEAR THE MONA PASSAGE MON MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SE US WILL MOVE E TO NEAR BERMUDA BY TUE. THIS WILL RESULT IN MODERATE TO FRESH E TO SE FLOW ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK. GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST A COLD FRONT TO EMERGE OFF THE N FLORIDA/GEORGIA COASTS ON WED. HOWEVER...THERE IS A LARGE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME WITH REGARDS TO AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE E GULF ALONG THE FRONT THAT WILL MOVE E TO NE OVER FLORIDA AND OVER THE W ATLC WED NIGHT AND THU. THE WEAKER MODEL SOLUTION WOULD RESULT IN A LOWER CHANCE FOR GALE WINDS TO OCCUR...WITH THE STRONGER SOLUTION YIELDING A LARGER AREA OF GALES. CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR STRONG TO MINIMAL GALE WINDS N OF 25N OVER THE W ATLC BOTH E AND W OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL EXTEND SW FROM THE LOW OVER THE AREA STARTING THU AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WED. .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WED NIGHT. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE WARNING MON NIGHT. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ115...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W... GALE WARNING TODAY. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FRI. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER LATTO. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.