000 AGXX40 KNHC 240623 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 123 AM EST SUN JAN 24 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. NWPS BLENDED WITH MWW3. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. NW WINDS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS ACROSS THE E GULF WATERS AROUND SUNRISE THIS MORNING...AND ASSOCIATED SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT BY LATE THIS MORNING. POST FRONTAL HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE GULF WITH A N-S ORIENTATED RIDGE FROM SW LA TO BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT E ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF TONIGHT WITH A 1023 MB HIGH DEVELOPING NEAR 28N88W TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT RAPIDLY NE ACROSS N FL EARLY MON LEAVING A RIDGE DISSECTING THE GULF FROM THE FL BIG BEND TO SE TX WITH STRONG SE RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE GULF WATERS W OF 94W. THE RIDGE WILL QUICKLY RETRACT E ON MON NIGHT ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO ENTER THE NW GULF. THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM THE MS DELTA TO THE W BAY OF CAMPECHE ON TUE AFTERNOON WITH STRONG N FLOW DEVELOPING W OF THE FRONT AND INCREASING TO NEAR GALE TUE NIGHT...EXCEPT FOR A SMALL BAND OF EMBEDDED MINIMAL GALE WINDS WHICH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE W-CENTRAL WATERS AROUND SUNRISE ON WED. THESE GALE CONDITIONS WILL SHIFT SE TO ACROSS THE WATERS S OF 21N W OF 94W LATE WED AND CONTINUE INTO WED NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE FL STRAITS ON THU AFTERNOON WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO 20 KT OR LESS ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF ON THU NIGHT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. NWPS BLENDED WITH MWW3. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO COSTA RICA WILL CONTINUE E NEARLY STALLING FROM THE MONA PASSAGE TO PANAMA LATE TONIGHT...AND THEN GRADUALLY DISSIPATING THROUGH TUE. NEAR GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE SW GULF W OF THE FRONT THIS MORNING WILL DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS TONIGHT WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO LESS THAN 8 FT BY SUNRISE ON MON. STRONG NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TODAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH LATE TUE. STRONG NE WINDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP S OF EASTERN CUBA TONIGHT. STRONG NE WINDS WILL ALSO DEVELOP S OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC LATE TONIGHT. STRONG NOCTURNAL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RESUME ALONG THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA TONIGHT. THE GRADIENT WILL FURTHER TIGHTEN WITH STRONG NE-E WINDS FORECAST ACROSS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 70-78W ON MON NIGHT...WITH STRONG E TRADES EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA BETWEEN 55-80W LATE TUE NIGHT INTO MIDDAY ON WED. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW CARIBBEAN LATE WED AND REACH FROM E CUBA TO COSTA RICA LATE THU NIGHT WITH STRONG N FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. NWPS BLENDED WITH MWW3. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM BERMUDA TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE WILL REACH FROM 31N55W TO THE MONA PASSAGE EARLY MON...THEN STALL FROM 26N55W TO THE MONA PASSAGE ON MON NIGHT. REMNANTS OF THE FRONT WILL LIFT N ON TUE AND WED. SW-W GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 28.5N BETWEEN 67-74W AT SUNRISE THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT E WITH THE FRONT DURING THE MORNING AND SHIFT N OF 31N THIS AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATED WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS ACROSS THE DISCUSSION WATERS W OF 55W EARLY MON. MAXIMUM SEAS OF 21 FT ARE EXPECTED NEAR 31N67W THIS MORNING...WITH THIS BAND OF MAX SEAS SHIFTING E WITH A 19 FT MAX NEAR 31N60W TONIGHT. SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER EXPECTED E OF THE BAHAMAS ON MON WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS OF 16 FT FORECAST NEAR 31N55W. SEAS OF 8-11 FT IN DECAYING N SWELL ARE EXPECTED E OF A LINE FROM BERMUDA TO THE SE BAHAMAS ON TUE...AND 7-9 FT SEAS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE TROPICAL WATERS S OF 22N E OF THE BAHAMAS ON WED...AND ONLY 6-8 FT ACROSS THE TROPICS S OF 22N E OF 60W ON THU. A POST FRONTAL RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM 31N76W TO HAITI ON MON WITH THE PARENT HIGH RACING E PAST BERMUDA ON MON NIGHT RE- ORIENTATING THE RIDGE SW TO PORT CANAVERAL FL. THE RIDGE WILL RETRACT E ON TUE NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT REACHING THE SE GA COAST ON EARLY WED. A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE SAME FRONT IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO LATE WED AND LEAP ACROSS S FL TO NEAR THE N BAHAMAS EARLY THU. THE LOW WILL THEN RACE NE ALONG THE FRONT PASSING N OF 31N 75W LATE THU AND DRAG THE COLD FRONT SE TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS LATE THU NIGHT. STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS WILL DEVELOP W OF THE FRONT ON THU NIGHT WITH GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE N OF 27N E OF THE FRONT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WED. .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WED INTO WED NIGHT. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MON NIGHT. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W... GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY INTO TODAY. .AMZ115...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W... GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY INTO TODAY. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.