000 AGXX40 KNHC 211940 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 240 PM EST THU JAN 21 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. RIDGE ANCHORED N OF THE BAHAMAS SHIFTING E IN THE SW N ATLC WHILE WEAKENING PROVIDES RETURN FLOW ACROSS ALL THE BASIN WITH LATEST SCAT PASS AND OBSERVATIONS SHOWING FRESH SE WIND N OF 24N IN THE CENTRAL GULF...THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. THE REMAINDER BASIN IS BEING DOMINATED BY WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT. RIDGE WILL SHIFT FARTHER E TODAY WHILE A LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTER THE NW GULF WATERS TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM S ALABAMA SW TO WESTERN AND CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE FRIDAY MORNING AND WILL EXIT THE BASIN BY EARLY SAT. CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW S TO SW FRESH WINDS ALONG TEXAS COASTAL WATERS IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT. WINDS AT OR NEAR GALE FORCE ARE LIKELY BEHIND THE FRONT MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF...WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE AND SEAS BUILDING 12 TO 18 FT. NORTHERLY GALES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE VERACRUZ AREA BEHIND THE FRONT EARLY FRI THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE W TO E DURING SAT AND EARLY SUN AS HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE BASIN BEHIND THE FRONT. EXPECT FRESH TO STRONG SE RETURN FLOW OFF VERACRUZ SUN AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY MON AHEAD OF NEXT APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. A RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE SW N ATLC N OF THE BAHAMAS CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN THE PRES GRADIENT IN THE NW BASIN. LATEST SCAT PASS AND OBSERVATIONS FROM BUOYS SHOW FRESH NE TO E WINDS PREVAILING W OF 77W OFF THE COAST OF CUBA TO 19N AND IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. THE RIDGE ALSO SUSTAINS FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 10 FT. THE RIDGE WILL MOVE E TONIGHT WHILE IT WEAKENS. THIS WILL REDUCE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE NW AND SW CARIBBEAN...THUS DIMINISHING THE WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT IN THE NW REGION AND REDUCING THE AREAL EXTENT OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OFF THE COLOMBIA COAST. RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT S AND THEN SE ACROSS THE SW N ATLC THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN ACROSS THE COLOMBIAN BASIN REACHING A NOCTURNAL MAX OF 30 KT FRI NIGHT. A TIGHTER PRES GRADIENT N OF HISPANIOLA WILL YIELD FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE LATE THU THROUGH EARLY FRI. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN FRI NIGHT...STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 21N77W TO NE NICARAGUA SAT MORNING...FROM EASTERN CUBA NEAR 20N74W SW TO 16N77W BY SUN MORNING...THEN STALL AND START TO BECOME DIFFUSE FROM EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC SW TO EASTERN JAMAICA TO 13N80W LATE MON. STRONG NW WINDS WILL COVER THE NW BASIN BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH EARLY SAT...THEN MOVE INTO THE SW WATERS LATE SAT WHERE GALE FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVER NICARAGUA COASTAL WATERS. SEAS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE FORECAST TO BUILD UP TO 12 FT. OTHERWISE...MODERATE NW SWELL WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TROPICAL N ATLC TODAY THROUGH SAT BEFORE SUBSIDING. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN NE OF HISPANIOLA. RIDGING CONTINUES TO DOMINATE NW OF THIS BOUNDARY ANCHORED BY A HIGH PRES CENTER JUST N OF THE BAHAMAS. WHILE THE PRESSURE CENTER DISSIPATE LATE TODAY WHILE MOVING E...RIDGING WILL REACH FARTHER S AND SE INTO THE BASIN TO INCREASE THE PRES GRADIENT AND SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS OFF NW HISPANIOLA AND THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST LATE FRI...EXTENDING FROM 31N74W TO CENTRAL CUBA SAT MORNING...FROM 31N64W TO EASTERN CUBA SUN MORNING...AND FROM 22N65W SW TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE MON MORNING. GALE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER NW WATERS AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT LATE FRI THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY N OF 26N. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ011...NW GULF INCLUDING STETSON BANK... GALE WARNING TONIGHT INTO FRI. .GMZ013...N CENTRAL GULF INCLUDING FLOWER GARDEN BANKS MARINE SANCTUARY... GALE WARNING TONIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT. .GMZ015...NE GULF N OF 25N E OF 87W... GALE WARNING FRI. .GMZ019...CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N BETWEEN 87W AND 94W... GALE WARNING FRI. .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE WARNING TONIGHT INTO FRI. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ111...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N W OF 77W... GALE WARNING FRI INTO SAT. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SAT. .AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W... GALE WARNING FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. .AMZ115...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W... GALE WARNING FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SAT. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUN. .AMZ119...ATLANTIC FROM 22N TO 27N E OF BAHAMAS TO 70W... GALE WARNING FRI NIGHT. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER RAMOS. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.