000 AGXX40 KNHC 201943 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 243 PM EST WED JAN 20 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. A RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE SE CONUS EXTENDS S ACROSS THE SE GULF AND STRAITS OF FL AND ACTS TO TIGHTEN THE PRES GRADIENT W OF A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM NW HISPANIOLA TO EASTERN HONDURAS. LATEST SCAT PASSES ALONG WITH OBS SHOW NE WINDS AROUND 20 KT ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...THE KEYS INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. WAVE MODELS NOWCAST SEAS 4-5 FT IN THE SE PORTION OF THE BASIN TO INCLUDE THE AFOREMENTIONED REGION. ELSEWHERE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SE RETURN FLOW ACROSS NW AND N CENTRAL PORTIONS IN ADVANCE OF A FRONT THAT STALLS FROM SW LOUISIANA TO S TEXAS NEAR 27N97W. THIS FRONT WILL DRIFT NW EARLY THU MORNING AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NW GULF WATERS THU NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL RAPIDLY SHIFT EASTWARD...EXTENDING FROM PENSACOLA FLORIDA TO THE WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE FRI MORNING...MOVING OFF THE BASIN BY EARLY SAT MORNING. GFS CONTINUES TO FORECAST GALE CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT OFF VERACRUZ FRI MORNING...WITH NEAR GALE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF N OF 24N FRI AND FRI NIGHT...CONTINUING OVER NE PORTIONS FRI NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SAT. WITH A LARGE AREA OF 30 KT WINDS DEPICTED BY MODELS...GALE WARNINGS IN AT LEAST FREQUENT GUSTS IS HIGHLY EXPECTED. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD UP TO 18 FT ACROSS THE NORTHERN BASIN ACCORDING TO ECWAVE WHILE WW4 ONLY REACHES 13-14 FT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE W TO E DURING SAT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE BASIN BEHIND THE FRONT. EXPECT FRESH TO STRONG SE RETURN FLOW OFF VERACRUZ STARTING SUN AFTERNOON...CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM NW HISPANIOLA WSW TO ERN HONDURAS COASTAL WATERS. A RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE SE CONUS EXTENDING S TO THE NW BASIN ACTS TO TIGHTEN THE PRES GRADIENT W OF THE FRONT...THUS SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG WINDS N OF 17N AS DEPICTED BY THE MOST RECENT SCAT PASS. WAVE MODELS NOWCAST SEAS 5-8 FT IN THIS REGION. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THIS EVENING...LEAVING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT WILL DRIFT W TO ENTER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EARLY FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN WINDS DIMINISHING TO 20 KT OR LESS S OF CUBA AND ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE BY EARLY THU MORNING. AS THE RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED HIGH SHIFTS S AND THEN SE ACROSS THE SW N ATLC THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE S OF FRONT ACROSS COLOMBIAN BASIN AND A NOCTURNAL MAX OF 30 KT IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 2 NIGHTS. A NEW COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN FRI NIGHT...STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 21N79W TO EASTERN HONDURAS SAT MORNING. AS STRONG NWLY FLOW SPREADS ACROSS W CARIB BEHIND FRONT MODELS SUGGEST AREAS OF 25-30 KT TO DEVELOP ACROSS INTERIOR GULF OF HONDURAS FRI NIGHT...ACROSS NE COASTAL PORTIONS OF HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA SAT MORNING...THEN INCREASING AS NNW WINDS ACCELERATE SWD ACROSS SW CARIB AND WATERS E OF NICARAGUA SAT NIGHT WHERE GALE WARNINGS COULD BE POSSIBLE. SEAS TO BUILD 8-10 FT ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED REGION. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N43W SW TO 25N53W WHERE IT STALLS TO NE HISPANIOLA. THE FRONT WILL DRIFT SE THROUGH THU WHEN IT WILL WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE. A RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE SE CONUS EXTENDING SE TO N OF HISPANIOLA ACTS TO TIGHTEN THE PRES GRADIENT W OF THE FRONT...THUS SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG WINDS S OF 24N TO NEARLY 74W...INCLUDING THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. WAVE MODELS NOWCAST SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT IN THIS REGION. THIS WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE HIGH WEAKENS WHILE DRIFTS SSE. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF NE FLORIDA LATE FRI AND EXTEND FROM 30N74W...ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS TO CENTRAL CUBA SAT MORNING. BY SUNDAY MORNING THE FRONT WILL STRETCH FROM 30N64W TO EASTERN CUBA...AND FROM 30N61W TO WESTERN HISPANIOLA SUN NIGHT. GALE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER NW WATERS AHEAD AND BEHIND THE FRONT FRI NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...INCLUDING THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. OTHERWISE...NW SWELL IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS SE WATERS AND HIT NE CARIB ISLANDS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRI. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE WARNING FRI. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ111...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N W OF 77W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SAT. .AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. .AMZ115...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SAT. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUN. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER RAMOS. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.