000 AGXX40 KNHC 200848 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 348 AM EST WED JAN 20 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EXTEND RIDGE SE ACROSS NE GULF AND TO STRAITS OF FL THIS MORNING...PRODUCING A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT ACROSS STRAITS AND SE PORTIONS AS COLD FRONT HAS STALLED FROM WINDWARD PASSAGE TO CENTRAL AMERICA. RECENT SCAT PASSES AND OBS SHOW NE WINDS AROUND 20 KT ACROSS SE QUARTER OF BASIN...AND A BIT MORE NNE FROM THE KEYS EWD. WAVE MODELS NOWCAST SEAS 5-7 FT IN THE STRAITS ATTM BUT LIKELY TO AT LEAST TO 8 FT IN WINDWAVE AGAINST CURRENT SCENARIO. 42003 NOW AT 5 FT. ELSEWHERE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS WITH MODERATE SE RETURN FLOW ACROSS NW AND N CENTRAL PORTIONS IN ADVANCE OF NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS W TEXAS. THIS FRONT EXPECTED TO REACH COASTAL COUNTIES OF TEXAS BY AFTERNOON...STALL AND THEN DRIFT NW AS YET ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE NW THU. LOOK FOR DECREASING WIND AND SEAS ACROSS SE PORTIONS TODAY AS RIDGE SHIFTS E INTO SW N ATLC...WITH MODERATE TO FRESH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILING THROUGH TONIGHT. MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON THIS NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM. S/W ENERGY WILL DROP INTO BACK SIDE OF CUT OFF LOW MOVING INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY THU-FRI AND MODEL DIFFERENCES TO BE EXPECTED. ATTM...THE 00Z ECMWF IS A BIT SLOWER IN MOTION OF DEVELOPING SFC LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE INTO NW GULF THU AFTERNOON...UKMET FARTHER S AND DEEP INITIALLY...WHILE GFS IS VERY MUCH IN LINE WITH ENSEMBLE MEANS...AND THUS AM TRENDING TOWARD THE GFS WITH THIS PACKAGE. SLY FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE N CENTRAL GULF THU IN ADVANCE OF FRONT AND DEEPENING LOW...AND EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 25-30 KT IN SWLY FLOW FRI EVENING AND NIGHT E OF 90W AND IMMEDIATELY E OF FRONT. 25-30 KT NW WINDS WILL BLAST OFF WRN COASTS BEHIND FRONT AND DOMINATE THE GULF THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT. WITH SUCH A LARGE AREA OF 30 KT WINDS DEPICTED BY MODELS...GALES IN AT LEAST FREQUENT GUSTS WOULD BE A GOOD BET AND WILL WORK THIS INTO FCST THIS MORNING. GFS FORECASTING GALES NEAR THE COAST OF VERACRUZ AREA 12-18Z WHILE SREF HANGS ON TO MINIMAL GALE CHANCES THROUGH 21Z. FRONT WILL RACE ACROSS BASIN AND INTO NW CARIB FRI AFTERNOON WITH SEAS BUILDING 12-16 FT AND POSSIBLY HIGHER ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE GULF FRI-SAT. ECWAVE MODEL PEAKING AT 18 FT ACROSS E CENTRAL PORTIONS SAT AFTERNOON WHILE WW4 ONLY REACHES 13-14 FT. GWES ENSEMBLE MAX REACHES 18 FT EARLY SAT ACROSS E CENTRAL PORTIONS...AND WILL THUS BLEND ECWAVE TO CREATE THIS. WINDS AND SEAS TO QUICKLY SUBSIDE SUN E PART WHILE FRESH SLY FLOW DEVELOP W PART IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER WEAKER FRONTAL SYSTEM. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. FRONT HAS DRIFTED INTO WINDWARD PASSAGE AND EXTENDS WSW THEN SW TO FAR ERN HONDURAS COAST. RECENT SCAT PASSES AND OBS VERIFY MODELS FORECASTS OF STRONG NNE TO NE WINDS NW OF BOUNDARY...WITH SOLID AREA OF AROUND 25 KT IN LEES OF CUBA...AND LIKELY THROUGH WINDWARD PASSAGE ATTM. BUOY 42057 HOLDING AT 7 FT ATTM AND 1-2 FT HIGHER THAN MODELS...AND HAVE CONFIDENCE THAT PEAK SEAS ARE 8-9 FT TO THE N IN STRONG FETCH OF 25 KT WINDS. EXPECT SEAS TO BUILD TO 8 FT WITHIN CARIB APPROACH TO WINDWARD PASSAGE TODAY AND TO 9 FT TONIGHT. TIGHT PRES GRADIENT TO NW OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY FORECAST TO SLOWLY WEAKEN TODAY AS E GULFMEX RIDGE SHIFTS E INTO SW N ATLC AND WINDS ACROSS W HALF OF CARIB GRADUALLY VEER ENE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY NW OF FRONT DURING THIS TIME AND KEEP SEAS IN THE 5-7 FT RANGE WITH ISOLATED AREAS TO 8 FT POSSIBLE THROUGH THU. ALSO AS RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED HIGH SHIFTS E ACROSS ATLC...GRADIENT WILL INCREASE S OF FRONT ACROSS COLOMBIAN BASIN AND NOCTURNAL MAX EXPECTED TO PEAK AROUND 30 KT NEXT 2 NIGHTS. FRONT TO DRIFT WWD AND DISSIPATED TONIGHT THROUGH THU AND THEN NW INTO YUCATAN CHANNEL THU NIGHT AND FRI AHEAD OF NEXT STRONG GULFMEX COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS YUCATAN CHANNEL FRI AFTERNOON WITH PRE FRONTAL TROUGH DEVELOPING AHEAD OF TRUE BOUNDARY...AND THEN MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS NW PORTIONS FRI NIGHT AND REACHING CENTRAL CUBA TO NE COAST OF HONDURAS BY 12Z SAT AND HAITI TO CENTRAL PANAMA BY 12Z SUN. AS STRONG NWLY FLOW SPREADS ACROSS W CARIB BEHIND FRONT MODELS SUGGEST AREAS OF 25-30 KT TO DEVELOP ACROSS INTERIOR GULF OF HONDURAS FRI NIGHT...ACROSS NE COASTAL PORTIONS OF HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA SAT MORNING...THEN INCREASING AS NNW WINDS ACCELERATE SWD ACROSS SW CARIB AND WATERS E OF NICARAGUA SAT AFTERNOON WHERE GALES LOOK TO BE A GOOD BET. SEAS TO BUILD 8-10 FT ACROSS GULF OF HONDURAS BY SAT MORNING...AND 10-13 FT IN YUCATAN CHANNEL...THEN BUILD 9-12 FT SW WATERS IN GALES LATE SAT NIGHT-SUN AND SLAM PANAMA COAST. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. COLD FRONT STARTING TO STALL N OF 30N THIS MORNING AND EXTEND SW THROUGH 26N60W TO WINDWARD PASSAGE...WHERE IT WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SE THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT AND INTO NW HISPANIOLA. RIDGE EXTENDS SE ACROSS ERN GULF AND TO WRN CUBA BEHIND FRONT PRODUCING TIGHT PRES GRADIENT ACROSS SRN BAHAMAS AND WATERS N OF FRONT TO 70W...WHERE NE WINDS 20-25 KT PREVAIL AND LIKELY VERY GUSTY IN BAHAMAS PASSAGES...AND THROUGH WINDWARD PASSAGE. WAVE MODELS SUGGESTS SEAS HAVE REACHED 8 FT ALONG NE COAST OF CUBA AND WILL SON BUILD TO 8 FT IN WINDWARD PASSAGE...AND 5-7 FT IN ERN STRAITS OF FL. NW SWELL BEHIND FRONT AND MOVING ACROSS E HALF OF AREA STILL UNDERFORECAST BY MODELS...WITH 41047 AND 41049 AT 11 FT ATTM...2-3 FT ABOVE MODELS...WITH ECWAVE ONLY 1-2 FT LOW. PRES GRADIENT TO WEAKEN LATER TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH SHIFTS E INTO ATLC. NW SWELL TO MOVE ACROSS SE WATERS AND HIT NE CARIB ISLANDS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRI. BEYOND THAT...MAIN FORECAST QUESTION IS STRENGTH AND TIMING OF STRONG TO GALE FORCE WINDS AHEAD OF NEXT GULFMEX FRONTAL SYSTEM. INITIALLY I PREFER GFS HANDLING OF SYSTEM ACROSS THE GULF AS DESCRIBED ABOVE...BUT MODELS COME BETTER IN LINE AS FRONT SHIFTS INTO ATLC FRI NIGHT-SAT. SLY WINDS 25-30 KT TO DEVELOP ACROSS NW PORTIONS FRI AFTERNOON AND COULD REACH GALE FORCE AHEAD OF PRE FRONTAL TROUGH BY FRI EVENING AND THEN CERTAINLY ON BOTH SIDES OF FRONT N OF 27N W OF 71W OVERNIGHT FRI...SPREADING E AND NE AHEAD OF FRONT SAT. STRONG WLY FLOW BEHIND FRONT WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF N WATERS THROUGH SUN WITH GALES LIKELY TO CONTINUE N OF 27.5N BEFORE ENDING W TO E BEGINNING SUN. FRONT TO REACH CENTRAL HISPANIOLA BY THAT TIME. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FRI. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ111...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N W OF 77W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SAT. .AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. .AMZ115...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SAT. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.