000 AGXX40 KNHC 190827 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 327 AM EST TUE JAN 19 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES ACROSS THE BASIN THIS MORNING WITH PRES GRADIENT ACROSS SE PART AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA YIELDING N TO NE WINDS 20-25 KT PER RECENT OBS AND PARTIAL SCAT PASSES. SEAS THERE STILL SUGGESTED A FT OR TWO HIGHER THAN MODEL GUIDANCE PER OBS AND EVENING ALTIMETER DATA. MAX SWH TO NEAR 8 FT PROBABLY LINGERING IN WRN STRAITS ATTM. PRES GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN MODESTLY ACROSS THIS AREA NEXT 24 HOURS AND GRADUALLY VEER TO ENE BY WED MORNING AND MAINTAIN SEAS NEAR 6-8 FT. NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM TO MOVE TO SE TEXAS AND STALL AS HIGH ACROSS TN VALLEY SHIFTS E TO ATLC COAST...AND MODERATE SLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS NW AND N CENTRAL PORTIONS. LITTLE CHANGE TO THIS SCENARIO EXPECTED WED-THU BEFORE STRONG COLD FRONT SUPPORTED BY ANOTHER SRN STREAM SFC LOW TO MOVE INTO TEXAS EARLY THU AND INTO NW WATERS THU AFTERNOON-EVENING. FRESHENING SLY FLOW TO OCCUR AHEAD OF FRONT AND INTO SE LA AND SRN MS THU...THEN STRONG NW WINDS 25-30 KT BEHIND FRONT THU NIGHT AND FRI AS IT MARCHES SE ACROSS THE GULF...REACHING FL BIG BEND T YUCATAN CHANNEL BY FRI AFTERNOON. GFS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST CHANCE FOR LOCALIZE GALES ACROSS VERACRUZ AREA FRI. STRONG BROAD WIND FIELD BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL GENERATE HIGH SEAS ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN BUILDING 12-15 FT AND HIGHER ACROSS MUCH OF NE QUARTER OF GULF FRI NIGHT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. STALLED FRONT EXTENDS FROM E CENTRAL CUBA TO VCNTY OF HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA BORDER...WITH NLY WIND FLOW PREVAILING NW OF FRONT AND NNE WINDS TO THE SE OF FRONT. RECENT SCAT PASS SHOWED BROAD AREA OF NLY WINDS AROUND 20 KT ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL EXTENDING SW TO MEXICAN COASTAL WATERS ALONG 18.5N 42056 JUST TO THE E OF THIS AREA AND ONLY REPORTING 4 FT ATTM. BEHIND THE FRONT 42057 IS N AT 20 KT AND HOLDING AT 6 FT. SCAT PASSES ALSO SHOW INFLUENCE OF FRONTAL SYSTEM BACKING WINDS OFF OF COLOMBIA AND CENTRAL CARIB...WITH N TO NNE WINDS ACROSS COLOMBIA REGION SPILLING ACROSS PANAMA AND ACCELERATING S ACROSS GULF OF PANAMA. FRONT TO MOVE LITTLE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND BUILDING RIDGE TO THE N BEHIND FRONT TO TIGHTEN PRES GRADIENT TODAY THROUGH WED MORNING ACROSS NW PORTIONS TO PRODUCE FRESHENING AND SLOWLY VEERING WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS...PEAKING AT 6-8 FT TONIGHT...WHERE NE WINDS IN LEE OF CUBA WILL REACH SOLID 25 KT. AS FRONT DRIFTS SE TO NW COAST OF HAITI TONIGHT...NE WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH WINDWARD PASSAGE TO 20-25 KT AND EXTEND DOWNWIND TO NEAR JAMAICA AND CONTINUE THROUGH WED NIGHT TO ALSO BUILD SEAS TO 6-8 FT BY LATE WED. THIS TIGHTENED PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE ARE WILL ALSO ENHANCE WINDS OFF OF COLOMBIA AND ALLOW FOR NOCTURNAL MAX TO AROUND 30 KT TONIGHT AND WED NIGHTS. WINDS AND SEAS TO DIMINISH MODESTLY WED THROUGH THU ACROSS NW PORTIONS AS FRONTAL REMNANTS DRIFT NW IN ADVANCE OF STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING INTO NW GULF OF MEXICO. OTHERWISE...MODERATE TRADES AND SEAS TO PREVAIL ACROSS E CARIB AND TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH NWLY SWELL IMPACTING N PORTIONS OF THESE ATLC WATERS STARTING WED NIGHT. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO EXTEND SW TO NE FROM E CENTRAL CUBA ACROSS THE SE BAHAMAS TO NEAR 30N60W THIS MORNING WITH PRE FRONTAL TROUGH STILL DEPICTED BY OBS AND RECENT SCAT PASSES 60-90 NM TO THE SE OF FRONT N OF 21N. SECONDARY S/W IN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS CANADIAN MARITIMES SUPPORTING A SECONDARY FRONT SWEEPING SE INTO NW PORTIONS THIS MORNING...WITH 25-30 KT NW WINDS SPILLING OFF GA- SC COASTS TO THIS SECOND FRONT. SFC HIGH ACROSS THE TN VALLEY EXTENDS SE INTO GULF OF MEXICO THEN CONTINUES SE INTO BETWEEN 2 FRONTS...WITH PRES GRADIENT EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN TODAY NW OF FIRST FRONT AND FRESHEN N TO NE WINDS ACROSS BAHAMAS...STRAITS OF FL AND EWD BEHIND FRONT TO 70W. N TO NW WINDS 20-25 KT CURRENTLY ACROSS THE ENTIRE LENGTH FL COASTAL WATERS PER OBS AND RECENT SCAT PASSES GENERATING NLY SWELL PASSING W OF BAHAMAS AND GETTING INTO SE FL COASTAL WATERS. NWLY SWELL BEHIND FIRST FRONT SUGGESTED TO BE HIGHER THAN MODELS BY 2-3 FT...WITH 02Z ALTIMETER PASS NEAR 41047 BOTH SHOWING 9 FT...WHILE 41010 IS AT 8 FT AND 2 FT HIGHER THAN MODELS. SECONDARY FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS N AND NE PORTIONS NEXT 24-36 HRS WITH RIDGING PREVAILING FROM SE U.S. SOUTHEASTWARD TO ERN WATERS AND WILL MAINTAIN FRESH NE WINDS ACROSS BAHAMAS THROUGH WED BEFORE HIGH SHIFTS E AND INTO ATLC BY WED EVENING AND GRADIENT RELAXES. I EXPECT WAVE MODELS TO BE SLIGHTLY UNDERDONE ACROSS THESE WATERS WITH SEAS REACHING 8 FT IN LEE OF SE BAHAMAS TUE NIGHT-EARLY WED...AND ALSO ACROSS ERN WATERS FIRST 24-36 HOURS IN CURRENT PULSE OF NW SWELL BASED ON OBS ABOVE. FRONT TO MOVE TO ALONG NW COAST OF HAITI BY 48 HRS THEN MEANDER THROUGH THU BEFORE STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES INTO GULF OF MEXICO AND WINDS ACROSS THE SW N ATLC OPEN UP INTO FLORIDA AND THE SE U.S. AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONT AND SUPPORTING SFC LOW. MODELS SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR SLY GALES AHEAD OF THIS NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEMS ACROSS NW WATERS LATE FRI. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ111...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N W OF 77W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. .AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT. .AMZ115...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SAT. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.