000 AGXX40 KNHC 180845 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 345 AM EST MON JAN 18 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS THE BASIN CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH AS COLD FRONT HAS MOVED WELL SE INTO NW CARIB. A WEAK TROUGH IN PREVAILING NWLY FLOW ACROSS ERN HALF OF BASIN IS DEPICTED IN SFC AND LLVL WIND VECTORS THIS MORNING FROM CENTRAL FL WSW TO 25N89W. OTHERWISE...NLY TO NW WINDS AROUND 15 KT CONTINUE E OF 86W...WHILE FLOW IS BECOMING MORE ANTICYCLONIC W AND NW OF 90W. A 00Z ALTIMETER PASS SHOWED SEAS ABOVE GUIDANCE...WITH 9-11 FT STILL BEING MEASURED ALONG 90W FROM JUST OFFSHORE OF NW YUCATAN COAST TO 26N. SEAS STILL LIKELY 7-9 FT THERE...WITH MAX SWH PROBABLY 10-12 FT IN WRN STRAITS OF FL. BUOY 42003 IN ERN GULF NOW DOWN TO 7 FT AND IN LINE WITH MODELS. COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS NW CARIB WITHIN 36 HOURS AND THEN DRIFT WWD TOWARD GULF OF HONDURAS THROUGH DAY 3. PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE STRAITS AND SE PORTIONS IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO TIGHTEN TONIGHT AS THE FRONT STALLS...WITH WINDS VEERING NELY. THESE FRESHENING WINDS S OF 25-26N ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY WED MORNING BEFORE THE SUPPORTING HIGH SHIFTS E TO SE U.S. COAST...WINDS VEER ENE ACROSS SE GULF...AND GRADIENT WEAKENS. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 6-8 FT TUE AFTERNOON THROUGH WED MORNING BEFORE SUBSIDING. SFC HIGH EXPECTED TO SETTLE ACROSS SW N ATLC WATERS BETWEEN BERMUDA AND E COAST WED TO PRODUCE FRESH SLY RETURN FLOW NW AND N CENTRAL PORTIONS...AHEAD OF NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM...EXPECTED TO REACH TEXAS COASTAL WATERS THU ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. COLD FRONT HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE SE ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN OVERNIGHT...PRECEDED BY WELL DEFINED TROUGH TO ITS SE. TROUGH CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM E CENTRAL CUBA NEAR CAMAGUEY TO FAR NE HONDURAS...WITH FRONT BEHIND IT FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO N CENTRAL COAST OF HONDURAS. RECENT SCAT PASSES AND OBS SHOW N TO NNW WINDS GENERALLY AROUND 15 KT FROM FRONT TO CUBA...AND 15-20 KT BETWEEN 82W AND 86W FROM FRONT TO 18.5N. BUOY 42056 IN NW CARIB DOWN TO 8 FT ATTM IN NNW SWELL THROUGH THE CHANNEL...WITH SEAS 8-9 FT LIKELY EXTENDING SSE FROM THERE TO 17.5-18N WHICH ARE PEAK SWH. OTHERWISE MODERATE E TO ESE TRADES PREVAIL E AND CENTRAL PORTIONS EXCEPT FOR VERY SMALL AREA 20 TO NEAR 25 KT WITHIN 90 NM OF COLOMBIAN COAST. FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE SLIGHTLY SE NEXT 24 HOURS AND REACH ERN CUBA TO COASTAL WATERS OF NICARAGUA BY THIS EVENING. FRESH NLY FLOW WILL PERSIST BEHIND THE FRONT AND KEEP SEAS 4-7 FT IN NLY WINDSWELL BEFORE FRONT STALLS TONIGHT AND PRES GRADIENT INCREASES ACROSS ENTIRE NW CARIB. WILL WILL VEER SLIGHTLY AND INCREASE 20-25 KT THROUGH EARLY WED...WITH NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW IN LEE OF CUBA TO YIELD SOLID AREAS OF 25 KT AND 6-7 FT...WITH DOWNSTREAM SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT TUE NIGHT-WED MORNING. FRONT TO LAY DOWN MORE ENE TO WSW WED MORNING AND SINK ACROSS WINDWARD PASSAGE TO NW COAST OF HAITI...WHILE E TO NE TRADES ALSO INCREASE CENTRAL AND SW PORTIONS OF BASIN AND FORCE THE FRONT TO BEGIN TO RETROGRADE ACROSS W PORTIONS AND BACK INTO GULF OF HONDURAS. HIGH PRES WILL HAVE SHIFTED TO ALONG SE U.S. COAST DURING THIS TIME AND NEARLY DUE N OF REGION FOR TIGHTENED GRADIENT...AND ALLOW NOCTURNAL WIND MAX OF 30 KT TO RETURN TO COASTAL COLOMBIA WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 10 FT LOCALLY. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. COLD FRONT HAS JUST SHIFTED E THROUGH BERMUDA AND EXTENDS SW THROUGH CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO CENTRAL CUBA...WITH STILL WELL DEFINED PRE FRONTAL TROUGH ABOUT 120 NM SE AND ACTING TO TRIGGER SHALLOW CONVECTION SEEN IN STLT IMAGERY ALONG BOUNDARIES. FRESH TO STRONG SWLY FLOW PREVAILS E OF TROUGH AND N OF 24N...WITH GALES JUST ABOUT TO EXIT THE HSF AREA ATTM AND SHOULD EXIT ENTIRELY AROUND 12Z. NW TO W FLOW DEPICTED BY SCAT WINDS AND OBS BEHIND FRONT TO BAHAMAS AND 77W...WITH 20-25 KT WINDS W OF FRONT N OF 28N. WAVE MODELS DOING GOOD JOB OF HANDLING SEAS BEHIND THE FRONT ATTM...WITH PEAK SWH 13-14 FT BEHIND FRONT ALONG 30N. HOWEVER MODELS A BIT SLOW WITH WAVE GROWTH ATTM ACROSS COASTAL WATERS OF FLORIDA AND NW WATERS WHERE NLY FLOW IS GENERATING SWELL AND MODELS ABOUT 2 FT LOW PRESENTLY. FRONT TO MOVE SLOWLY SE AND REACH NEAR 30N60W TO ERN CUBA BY THIS EVENING AND THEN 23N65W TO WINDWARD PASSAGE TUE EVENING THEN BEGIN TO STALL ACROSS SE WATERS TO NW COAST OF HAITI LATE WED. STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDING FROM SE U.S. SOUTHEASTWARD BEHIND FRONT WILL TIGHTEN PRES GRADIENT TONIGHT INTO TUE AND FRESHEN THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT...AFFECTING MOST WATERS BEHIND FRONT THROUGH TUE MORNING BEFORE STRONGEST WINDS SHIFT ACROSS BAHAMAS AND STRAITS LATE TUE THROUGH EARLY WED. SECONDARY LOW WILL DEVELOP OFF NEW ENGLAND NEXT FEW DAYS AND MAINTAIN A BROAD NWLY FETCH ACROSS THE NW ATLC TO MAINTAIN NWLY SWELL INTO AREA WATERS THROUGH MID WEEK...HIGHEST LOCALLY ACROSS NE WATERS WHERE MODELS ARE STILL 10-15 FT WED AFTERNOON. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ115...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W... GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.