000 AGXX40 KNHC 170808 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 308 AM EST SUN JAN 17 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. VIGOROUS LOW MOVING E ACROSS N CENTRAL GULF OVERNIGHT ALONG ABOUT 28.5N HAS MOVE TO NEAR S OF APALACHICOLA...WITH SEVERAL OIL PLATFORMS AND SHIPS REPORTING BRIEF SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 50 KT WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 60 KT THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...EXCLUSIVELY ACROSS W AND SW QUADRANTS. STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDING E OF LOW BEGINNING TO LIFT N AS WARM FRONT ACROSS NRN FL WHILE TRUE COLD AIR AND FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM LOW TO FAR WRN BAY OF CAMPECHE JUST S OF TAMPICO. RECENT 0340Z ALTIMETER DATA ALONG 93.5W-94.5W SHOWED PEAK SEAS TO 13 FT WHICH IS LINE...SURPRISINGLY WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE LOWER RES UKMET-ECWAVE MODELS. MAX SEAS SHOULD BE REACHING NEAR 18 FT ALONG ABOUT 90W ATTM WHERE TWO 06Z SHIP OBS SHOWED WLY WINDS AT 50 KT. GFS APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN CORRECT IN INDICATING A SOMEWHAT ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRES WHICH WAS ALSO FORECAST BY ECMWF. LOW WILL NOW SHIFT MORE NE ACROSS FL BIG BEND AND N FL REMAINDER OF THIS MORNING...WITH SW GALES AHEAD OF SQUALL LINE SHIFTING ENE ACROSS SE WATERS AND INTO SW FL...WHILE W TO NW GALES OCCUR BEHIND FRONT AND SQUALL LINE N OF 22N AND SHIFT RAPIDLY NE ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA AND INTO THE FLORIDA ATLC COASTAL WATERS. BOTH THE EURO WAVE MODELS PEAK SEAS 21-22 FT SE WATERS BY 12Z AND A BIT FARTHER E AND HIGHER THAN WW3...WHILE GWES PEAKS AT 21 FT AT SAME TIME ABOUT 2 DEG TO W OF EUROS. NWPS NOT PRODUCING EXPECTED RESULTS WILL THUS CONTINUE TO BLEND STRONGLY BOTH ECMWF WIND AND WAVES FOR THIS PACKAGE. GALES TO END ACROSS BASIN BY AROUND 15Z EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z IN ERN STRAITS WITH N TO NW FLOW FILLING IN BEHIND COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND MAINTAIN SEAS TO 12 FT TILL 06Z BEFORE WINDS AND SEAS BEGIN TO IMPROVE STEADILY THROUGH MON. FRONT WILL MAKE IT TROUGH NW CARIB AND STALL THROUGH WINDWARD PASSAGE TO ERN NICARAGUA WHILE STRONG RIDGE BUILDS S AND SW ACROSS GULF MON AND TUE TO PRODUCE TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT ACROSS SE GULF AND FRESHENING SLOWLY VEERING WINDS THROUGH WED. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. ATLC RIDGE RETREATING ENE ATTM TO PRODUCE SLOWLY WEAKENING PRES GRADIENT ACROSS CENTRAL AND E PORTIONS OF BASIN AS WELL AS TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. RECENT OBS AND SCAT PASSES INDICATED STRONG WINDS CONTINUING OFFSHORE OF COLOMBIA TO 14N...WHILE WINDS ACROSS N CENTRAL TO NW PART RESPONDING TO LOW IN GULF OF MEXICO AND VEERING SE TO S AND FRESHENING. SEAS BUILDING 5-6 FT IN YUCATAN CHANNEL ATTM AND 4-5 FT TO THE S AND SE AND WILL BUILD FURTHER THROUGH TODAY AS TROUGH THEN FRONT MOVE SE ACROSS YUCATAN CHANNEL BY THIS EVENING...AND BECOME S TO SW E OF BOUNDARIES. CONFUSED SEAS WILL DEVELOP IN CHANNEL AS NW WIND SWELL BEGINS TO MIX WITH SLY WAVES...THEN SEAS BECOME DOMINATED BY NNW WIND SEA AND SWELL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. FRONT EXPECTED TO REACH E CENTRAL CUBA TO NE HONDURAS BY MON EVE THEN WINDWARD PASSAGE TO E COASTAL NICARAGUA BY TUE EVE WHERE IT WILL BEGIN TO STALL. BUILDING HIGH PRES ACROSS THE GULF LATE MON AND TUE WILL ENHANCE PRES GRADIENT BEHIND STALLING FRONT AND STRENGTHEN WINDS AND THEY VEER SLOWLY FROM N TO NE TUE-WED...WITH SEAS BUILDING 6-9 FT NW PORTIONS. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. SLY FLOW INCREASING ATTM ALL ALONG THE ENTIRE FLORIDA E COAST AS WINDS OPEN UP IN ADVANCE OF GULF OF MEXICO LOW. LINES OF SQUALLS AND POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED THIS MORNING AHEAD OF PRE FRONTAL TROUGH AND MAJOR SQUALL LINE CURRENTLY ACROSS THE GULF. S TO SSW GALES AREA EXPECTED BY 12Z W OF 77W FROM GULF STREAM WATERS OFFSHORE OF SE FL N AND NNE TO BEYOND 31N AND WILL SHIFT ENE THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH WLY GALES FILLING IN BEHIND FRONT LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING AND LIFTING NE OUT OF AREA TONIGHT...AND LINGERING E OF TROUGH AND FRONT ACROSS NE WATERS THROUGH 18Z MON. SEAS 12-17 FT TO DEVELOP IN S-SW GALES THIS AFTERNOON...AND 10-17 FT BEHIND FRONT THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOW WILL LIFT OUT OF AREA RAPIDLY BY 18Z AND IT SKIRTS THE NW WATERS OFFSHORE OF FL-GA-SC. MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT IN FRONTAL POSITION...WITH FRONT REACHING FROM 31N72W TO STRAITS OF FL 00Z MON AND 24N65W TO WINDWARD PASSAGE BY 00Z WED WHERE IT WILL BEGIN TO STALL AND GRADUALLY LAY DOWN MORE ENE TO WSW. TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT AFFECTING SE GULF AND NW CARIB TO PRODUCE SIMILAR FRESHENING WINDS ACROSS BAHAMAS...STRAITS AND ADJACENT ATLC WATERS THROUGH WED. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ013...N CENTRAL GULF INCLUDING FLOWER GARDEN BANKS MARINE SANCTUARY... GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY INTO TODAY. .GMZ015...NE GULF N OF 25N E OF 87W... GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY INTO TODAY. .GMZ019...CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N BETWEEN 87W AND 94W... GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY INTO TODAY. .GMZ021...E GULF FROM 22N TO 25N E OF 87W INCLUDING STRAITS OF FLORIDA... GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY INTO TODAY. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ111...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N W OF 77W... GALE WARNING TODAY. .AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W... GALE WARNING TODAY INTO TONIGHT. .AMZ115...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W... GALE WARNING TODAY INTO TONIGHT. .AMZ117...BAHAMAS INCLUDING CAY SAL BANK... GALE WARNING TODAY. .AMZ119...ATLANTIC FROM 22N TO 27N E OF BAHAMAS TO 70W... GALE WARNING TODAY. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.