000 AGXX40 KNHC 161842 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 142 PM EST SAT JAN 16 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PREVAILS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AS LOW PRESSURE IS JUST MOVING OFF THE TEXAS COAST. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OVER THE NW WATERS AS THE LOW STARTS TO INTENSIFY. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE OVER THE WESTERN WATERS WITH GENTLE WINDS PREVAILING OVER THE E GULF. SEAS ARE IN THE 3-5 FT RANGE OVER THE NW GULF...AND 3-4 FT OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF EXCEPT FOR THE SW GULF WHERE SEAS ARE IN THE 1-2 FT RANGE. THE LOW WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY TONIGHT AS IT SHIFTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE NORTHERN 2/3 OF THE GULF WATERS AS THE LOW SHIFTS EASTWARD. THE LOW CENTER WILL SHIFT NE OF THE AREA EARLY SUN MORNING WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SHIFTING SE OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SUN AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION TO THE GALE FORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED TO THIS SYSTEM...STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO BE FOUND IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT TODAY THROUGH SUN BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES SE OF THE AREA. THESE STORMS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS UPWARDS OF 50 KT OR MORE...BLINDING RAIN...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR WATERSPOUTS. THESE WATERSPOUTS WILL BE PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS AS THEY WILL BE ASSOCIATED TO SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS AS OPPOSED TO THOSE GENERATED WITHIN A CLOUD LINE...WHICH TEND TO BE MUCH WEAKER. THE GALES AND THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL SPREAD WEST TO EAST AS THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. MARINERS SHOULD EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION ACROSS THE GULF WATERS TODAY THROUGH SUN WHEN THE LOW AND FRONT CLEARS THE AREA. SEAS WILL BUILD TO NEAR 15 FT OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF TONIGHT AND SUN MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL START TO DECREASE WEST-EAST SUN AS THE LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES FURTHER FROM THE FORECAST AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILD IN ITS WAKE. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY... AND CMAN DATA DEPICT FRESH TO STRONG TRADES OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...AND GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN AS WELL AS THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. SEAS ARE IN THE 6-8 FT RANGE OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...4-6 FT OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...3-4 FT OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...2-4 FT OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...AND 6-8 FT OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS IN NE SWELL. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE JUST N OF THE AREA WILL RETREAT EASTWARD ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL WEAKEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WATERS AND DIMINISH WINDS BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE RIDGE WILL ENABLE A COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. A BRIEF INCREASE IN WINDS REACHING NEAR 25 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE FRONT EARLY SUN AS WELL AS A BRIEF INCREASE IN SEAS IN THE 8-9 FT RANGE OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND FAR NW CARIBBEAN ON SUNDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO E HONDURAS LATE MON WHERE IT WILL STALL AND DISSIPATE THROUGH TUE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL ONCE AGAIN STRENGTHEN TRADES OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA BY MID WEEK. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR 31N65W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA WITH A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING OVER THE SE WATERS INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY... AND CMAN DATA DEPICT STRONG TO MINIMAL GALE WINDS E OF THE FRONT N OF 30N. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS PREVAIL E OF THE FRONT N OF THE RIDGE AXIS. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL S OF THE RIDGE AXIS. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL W OF THE FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS AND LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS PREVAIL W OF THE FRONT OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS. SEAS ARE IN THE 7-10 FT RANGE OVER THE NE WATERS...4-6 FT ELSEWHERE E OF THE BAHAMAS...AND 1-2 FT W OF THE BAHAMAS. THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FRONT WILL SHIFT E OF THE AREA SHIFTING THE GALE FORCE WINDS E OF THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FRONT WILL STALL AND DISSIPATE. INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE FAR NW GULF OF MEXICO WILL SHIFT ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND CLIP THE FAR NW ZONE OF THE SW N ATLC WATERS EARLY SUN. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL MOVE WITH THE LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS FROM W TO E SUN THROUGH EARLY MON BEFORE MOVING N OF THE AREA MON AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 15-16 FT OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS SUN INTO EARLY MON BEFORE STARTING TO SUBSIDE. ANOTHER NORTHERLY SWELL WILL MOVE INTO THE NE WATERS TUE AND WED WITH SEAS IN THE 10-12 FT RANGE. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ011...NW GULF INCLUDING STETSON BANK... GALE WARNING TODAY INTO TONIGHT. .GMZ013...N CENTRAL GULF INCLUDING FLOWER GARDEN BANKS MARINE SANCTUARY... GALE WARNING TONIGHT. .GMZ015...NE GULF N OF 25N E OF 87W... GALE WARNING TONIGHT INTO SUN. .GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W... GALE WARNING TONIGHT. .GMZ019...CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N BETWEEN 87W AND 94W... GALE WARNING TONIGHT INTO SUN. .GMZ021...E GULF FROM 22N TO 25N E OF 87W INCLUDING STRAITS OF FLORIDA... GALE WARNING TONIGHT INTO SUN. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ111...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N W OF 77W... GALE WARNING SUN. .AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W... GALE WARNING SUN INTO SUN NIGHT. .AMZ115...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W... GALE WARNING SUN NIGHT. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.