000 AGXX40 KNHC 160819 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 319 AM EST SAT JAN 16 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. DEEP LOW PRES CONTINUES TO LIFT OUT TO THE NE AND OFFSHORE OF MID ATLC STATES AND DRAGGING DRY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS S FL AND INTO SE GULF TO JUST N OF YUCATAN PENINSULA. WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDING RATHER QUICKLY ACROSS THE BASIN PAST 12 HOURS WITH WLY FETCH ACROSS THE N GULF STILL PRODUCING SEAS 5-7 FT ACROSS NE PORTIONS AND FL BIG BEND. HOWEVER...ALL THIS TO CHANGE DRASTICALLY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST A "GORILLA IN THE GULF" AS THEY SAY IN NEW ENGLAND. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO...AND HAVE USED A GLOBAL BLEND FOR WIND FIELDS TODAY... LEANING STRONGLY ON THE ECMWF DUE TO ITS CONSISTENCY RUN TO RUN AND WITH THE UKMET. DEEPENING LOW PRES SYSTEM EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE CENTRAL TEXAS COAST BY AROUND 18Z TODAY WITH A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH AND POSSIBLE SQUALLS PRECEDING A COLD FRONT...AND WINDS IMMEDIATELY INCREASING TO 25-30 KT BOTH SIDES OF TROUGH. GALES LIKELY TO START SHORTLY THEREAFTER...21Z...AND INCREASE TO 40 KT POSSIBLY 45 KT 00-06Z AND LOW DEEPENS QUICKLY AND SHIFTS E ALONG ABOUT 28N-28.5N. GFS STILL SLIGHTLY FASTER SHIFTING SOME OF THE ELONGATED MID LEVEL ENERGY ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA EARLY SUN MORNING. BROAD AREA OF NW TO W GALES BEHIND FRONT TO GENERATE LARGE AREA OF 12-15 FT SEAS SHIFTING ESE ACROSS CENTRAL AND INTO ERN PORTIONS SAT NIGHT THROUGH NOON ON SUN...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SEAS TO REACH 19-20 FT E CENTRAL PORTIONS SUN MORNING. LOW TO SHIFT ACROSS FL PENINSULA SUN WITH FRONT SWINGING SE ACROSS STRAITS AND INTO NW CARIB SUN EVE-NIGHT BEFORE WIND AND SEAS BEGIN TO DIMINISH SIGNIFICANTLY. COASTLINES OF YUCATAN AND FL WILL BE HIT WITH HIGH WINDSEA AND DRIVING WINDS FOR COASTAL EROSION AND HIGH SURF MUCH OF DAY SUN. SLOWLY VEERING FRESH WINDS PERSIST OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ELSEWHERE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MODEST PRES GRADIENT TO PREVAIL NW OF LINGERING BOUNDARY ACROSS NW CARIB. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-ECMWF CONSENSUS. A FRONTAL TROUGH HAS MOVED SE ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND TO CENTRAL CUBA...YIELDING GENTLY DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW ACROSS NW PORTIONS OF BASIN. MODERATE E TO SE TRADES PREVAIL ELSEWHERE ACROSS E AND CENTRAL PORTIONS WHILE RECENT SCAT PASSES SHOW TYPICAL CYCLONIC TURNING OF WINDS ACROSS S CENTRAL AND SW PORTIONS...WITH PEAK WINDS AROUND 25 KT OFFSHORE OF COLOMBIA NEAR 12N74.5W. RELATIVELY DRY FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING YUCATAN CHANNEL ATTM AND EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS GULF ENTRANCE TO CHANNEL THIS MORNING BEFORE BEGINNING TO LIFT N AS WARM FRONT LATER TODAY IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING LOW ACROSS WRN GULF THIS AFTERNOON. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL HAVE PUSHED SE INTO CENTRAL BAHAMAS BY THAT TIME WITH ATLC RIDGE EXTENDING INTO SE BAHAMAS AND MODERATE RETURN FLOW OPENING UP ACROSS NW CARIB INTO GULF. NEXT PRE FRONTAL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO YUCATAN CHANNEL LATE TONIGHT-EARLY SUN AS GORILLA IN GULF SHIFTS ENE INTO N FLORIDA...FOLLOWED BY COLD FRONT MOVING SE ACROSS YUCATAN CHANNEL AND NW PORTIONS SUN AFTERNOON. FRONT THEN EXPECTED TO REACH FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO GULF OF HONDURAS MON NIGHT THEN BEGIN TO WASH OUT FROM ERN CUBA TO NE HONDURAS COASTAL WATERS TUE. NW WINDS AROUND 20 KT EXPECTED BEHIND FRONTAL BOUNDARY SUN AFTERNOON-EVE AND NIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 15-20 KT...WHILE NLY SWELL MOVES THROUGH YUCATAN CHANNEL AND BUILDS SEAS BRIEFLY 8-10 FT SUN EVENING BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING SUN NIGHT. FRONT LIKELY TO BECOME REINVIGORATED TUE-WED AS HIGH BUILDS ACROSS GULF OF MEXICO AND PRES GRADIENT INCREASES...PRODUCING STRONG NE WINDS NW PORTIONS. MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE DURING THIS TIME. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. LOW PRES HAS SHIFTED NNE TO OFFSHORE OF MID ATLC STATES WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT NOW ACROSS FAR NW BAHAMAS AND S FLORIDA...WITH PRE FRONTAL TROUGH FROM NEAR 30N72W THOUGH CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND CENTRAL CUBA...WITH ACTIVE CONVECTION GRADUALLY SHIFTING NE AND ALONG AND E OF TROUGH...AND DECREASING IN AREAL COVERAGE. S TO SW GALES STILL OCCURRING E OF TROUGH...N OF 27N AND E TO ABOUT 67-68W...WHERE SEAS ARE LIKELY 8-12 FT. STRONG WLY WINDS PREVAIL W OF FRONT AND GENERALLY N OF 27N...WHERE RECENT SCAT PASSES SHOWED SOLID 25 KT OFFSHORE OF N CENTRAL AND NE FLORIDA COASTS. FRONT EXPECTED TO DRAG ENE TODAY WITH GALES LIFTING N OF 30N BY AROUND 00Z TONIGHT AND WEAK HIGH PRES SETTLING JUST N OF NW BAHAMAS. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE NEXT DEVELOPING GULF LOW AND ACCOMPANYING FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF NE FLORIDA SUN MORNING. AGAIN...MODELS HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT IN LAST SEVERAL RUNS...BUT GFS STILL SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WHICH IS FREQUENTLY SEEN IN THIS PROGRESSIVE EL NINO PATTERN. HAVE THUS LEANED HEAVILY ON ECMWF. SLY GALES EXPECTED TO COMMENCE ACROSS W AND NW WATERS BY AROUND 12Z SUN...POSSIBLY EXTENDING AS FAR S AS GULF STREAM WATERS OFFSHORE OF PALM BEACH AND MIA...THEN SHIFTING NE AND EXPANDING SUN THROUGH MON AS LOW LIFTS NE AND DEEPENS. NW GALES BEHIND FRONT EXPECTED NW PORTIONS BY SUN 18Z THROUGH MON MORNING...WITH SEAS BUILDING 8-12 FT IN NW SWELL NE PORTIONS SUN NIGHT-MON. SEAS IN EXCESS OF 8 FT WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA NE OF THE BAHAMAS INTO MID WEEK DUE TO SUCCESSIVE PUSHES OF NORTHERLY SWELL INTO THE AREA. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ011...NW GULF INCLUDING STETSON BANK... GALE WARNING TODAY INTO TONIGHT. .GMZ013...N CENTRAL GULF INCLUDING FLOWER GARDEN BANKS MARINE SANCTUARY... GALE WARNING TONIGHT. .GMZ015...NE GULF N OF 25N E OF 87W... GALE WARNING TONIGHT INTO SUN. .GMZ019...CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N BETWEEN 87W AND 94W... GALE WARNING TONIGHT. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ111...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N W OF 77W... GALE WARNING SUN. .AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W... GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY. GALE WARNING SUN INTO SUN NIGHT. .AMZ115...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W... GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY INTO TODAY. GALE WARNING SUN NIGHT. .AMZ119...ATLANTIC FROM 22N TO 27N E OF BAHAMAS TO 70W... GALE WARNING SUN. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.