000 AGXX40 KNHC 151918 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 218 PM EST FRI JAN 15 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. DEEP LOW PRES THAT FORMED OVER THE WESTERN GULF YESTERDAY HAS MOVED NE OF THE AREA...PULLING AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF. A SQUALL LINE AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS BRINGING A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...WITH EMBEDDED TORNADOES...ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS AND INLAND INTO SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS REACHED MINIMAL GALE FORCE OVER THE NE GULF AHEAD OF THIS LINE EARLIER THIS MORNING WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE. ELSEWHERE WINDS AND SEAS ARE DIMINISHING AS HIGH PRES BUILDS BEHIND THE FRONT. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT RAPIDLY EAST ACROSS THE GULF TONIGHT THROUGH SAT MORNING...AHEAD OF THE NEXT DEEPENING LOW PRES SYSTEM EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST BY LATE SAT. WINDS TO GALE WARNING FORCE WILL ACCOMPANY THIS LOW OVER THE NW GULF SAT EVENING...SPREADING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH SAT. STRONG NW WINDS AND SEAS OF 8 TO 12 FT WILL FOLLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF THROUGH EARLY SUN. OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING W TO NW WINDS TO GALE FORCE FOLLOWING THE LOW PRES OVER THE CENTRAL GULF BY LATE SAT WITH SEAS BUILDING AS HIGH AS 12 FT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE N CENTRAL GULF. THE 12Z RUNS OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE NOW PLACING THE LOW PRES OVER N CENTRAL FLORIDA OR JUST OFFSHORE BY SUN MORNING...WITH THE GFS AND UKMET INDICATED ALONG OR JUST OFF THE E CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST. THE 12Z ECWMF IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE OTHER MODELS COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS...BUT REMAINS SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND PLACES THE LOW A LITTLE MORE TO THE WEST NEAR CEDAR KEY. THE UKMET IN FACT SHOWS TWO CENTERS...EXACTLY WHERE THE GFS AND ECMWF EACH PLACE THE LOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS WHICH SHOWS A MORE ELONGATED CENTER ACROSS N CENTRAL FLORIDA. WINDS AND SEAS GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS AND SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT FROM NW TO SE THROUGH LATE SUN AS THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES SE OF THE AREA. SLOWLY VEERING FRESH WINDS PERSIST OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ELSEWHERE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE WEST ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH WINDS QUICKLY RETURN TO SE BY EARLY SAT AS THE FRONT PASSES FARTHER EAST. OTHERWISE MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WILL PERSIST WITH 4 TO 6 FT SEAS...AND STRONGER WINDS OFF COLOMBIA WITH 7 TO 9 FT SEAS. LONGER PERIOD NORTHERLY SWELL HAS BEEN PROPAGATING THROUGH ATLC PASSAGES...BUT WILL SUBSIDE THROUGH LATE SAT. LIKEWISE SWELL UP TO 8 FT EAST OF THE WINDWARD AND LEEWARD ISLANDS WILL SUBSIDE UNDER 8 FT THROUGH LATE SAT. ANOTHER STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND NW CARIBBEAN LATE SAT NIGHT/EARLY SUN MORNING FOLLOWED BY FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS AND SEAS TO 8 FT. THIS WILL SUBSIDE THROUGH SUN AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST...REACHING FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO EASTERN HONDURAS SUN NIGHT. BUILDING HIGH PRES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ALLOW FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN THROUGH MON AS THE FRONT STALLS FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO NE NICARAGUA. STRONG WINDS WITH SEAS TO AT LEAST 8 FT WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE OFF COLOMBIA...WITH SEAS 4 TO 6 FT ELSEWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN AND 5 TO 7 FT IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. LATEST ASCAT SATELLITE DATA INDICATES SOUTHERLY WINDS TO GALE FORCE OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS N OF THE BAHAMAS AND EAST OF NE FLORIDA...AHEAD OF A DEEP LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF AND SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING ACROSS THIS AREA BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. THE STRONG TO GALE FORCE SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH 8 TO 12 FT SEAS WILL RAKE THE NORTHERN WATERS N OF 29N AS FAR EAST AS 65W THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH STRONG W TO NW WINDS FOLLOWING AS THE FRONT DRIVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION. MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH 5 TO 7 FT OUTSIDE THE BAHAMAS WILL PERSIST ELSEWHERE. THE STRONGER WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT THROUGH LATE SAT OVER WATERS N OF 25N AS HIGH PRES FOLLOWS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. ATTENTION TURNS TO THE NEXT DEEP LOW PRES AND ACCOMPANYING FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF FLORIDA BY EARLY SUN. 12Z MODELS ARE INDICATING GALES OFF NE FLORIDA BY MIDDAY FRIDAY...POSSIBLY A LITTLE EARLIER...AHEAD OF THE LOW PRES AS IT STARTS TO MOVE NE OF THE AREA. THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW THE CURRENT LOW PRES...BRINING WINDS TO GALE FORCE OVER THE WATERS THROUGH SUN NIGHT/EARLY MON MORNING WITH 8 TO AT LEAST 12 FT SEAS. THE AREA N OF 25N WILL GET A BRIEF REPRIEVE THROUGH EARLY MON...BUT GUIDANCE SHOWS A REINFORCING FRONT MOVING ACROSS W ATLC WATERS BY LATE MON. SEAS IN EXCESS OF 8 FT WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA NW OF THE BAHAMAS INTO MID WEEK DUE TO SUCCESSIVE PUSHES OF NORTHERLY SWELL INTO THE AREA. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ013...N CENTRAL GULF INCLUDING FLOWER GARDEN BANKS MARINE SANCTUARY... GALE WARNING SAT NIGHT. .GMZ015...NE GULF N OF 25N E OF 87W... GALE WARNING SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. .GMZ019...CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N BETWEEN 87W AND 94W... GALE WARNING SAT NIGHT. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ111...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N W OF 77W... GALE WARNING TODAY. GALE WARNING SUN. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUN. .AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W... GALE WARNING TODAY INTO TONIGHT. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUN INTO SUN NIGHT. .AMZ115...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.