000 AGXX40 KNHC 150823 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 323 AM EST FRI JAN 15 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. DEEPENING CYCLOGENESIS OCCURRING AS FORECAST OVER THE NRN GULF AHEAD OF A VIGOROUS VORT MOVING THROUGH MID LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING CENTRAL U.S. TO NRN MEXICO...ALONG ABOUT 100W. SFC LOW HAS RIDDEN ENE ALONG AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEARLY E-W ALONG 29N...WITH 1004 MB NEAR MOUTH OF MS RIVER...AND PORTION OF BOUNDARY E OF LOW LIFTING N AS WARM FRONT. OBS ACROSS NE GULF AND E OF LOW REACHING 30 KT ATTM AND SLY GALES EXPECTED TO BEGIN VERY SHORTLY AS LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE ENE ACROSS FL PANHANDLE AND DEEPEN FURTHER TODAY ACROSS SE U.S. MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT...WITH GFS FASTER AND FARTHER E THAN EURO MODELS...AND HAS BLENDED SIG PORTION OF BOTH UKMET AND ECMWF TO CAPTURE CONSENSUS...WITH ALL MODELS NOW SHOWING SLY GALES ACROSS SE SEMICIRCLE. AS THE LOW SHIFTS NE OF THE AREA TONIGHT A DEVELOPING COLD FRONT WILL DRAG ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF IN ITS WAKE. THE SOUTHERLY GALES WILL SHIFT E INTO THE SW N ATLC BY 18Z TODAY AS THE LOW PRES LIFTS NE WITH WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISHING ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF TONIGHT THROUGH SAT MORNING AS HIGH PRES MOVES RAPIDLY ACROSS THE BASIN FROM TEXAS TO FLORIDA...AHEAD OF THE NEXT DEEPENING LOW PRES SYSTEM EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST BY LATE SAT. WINDS TO GALE FORCE WILL ACCOMPANY THIS LOW OVER THE NW GULF SAT EVENING...SPREADING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH SAT. STRONG NW WINDS AND SEAS OF 8 TO 12 FT WILL FOLLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF THROUGH EARLY SUN. THE 00Z RUNS OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT THAN PREVIOUS RUNS SHOWING THE LOW PRES IN THE N CENTRAL GULF BY 00Z SUN...WHEN ALL MODELS COMMENCE GALES. GFS IS FASTER AND FARTHER E THAN EURO MODELS AGAIN WITH THIS VERY PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN...AND HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS THE EURO CONSENSUS. BOTH THE UKMET AND ECMWF SHOW 50 KT IN PBL ACROSS W SEMICIRCLE OF LOW BY 12Z SUN...IN THE ERN GULF...SO WINDS TO 40 KT SEEMS REASONABLE ATTM WITH POTENTIAL FOR NEAR STORM FORCE GUSTS. WILL NEED TO BLEND IN CONSIDERABLE NWPS TO MATCH WIND FIELD WITH THIS PACKAGE. THE LOW WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE BASIN BY LATE SUN...WITH WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISHING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. CONFIDENCE IMPROVING MODESTLY WITH LATEST RUNS. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. REMNANTS OF OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAVE LIFTED N ACROSS YUCATAN CHANNEL THIS MORNING AND HAVE MOVED INTO UNSTABLE REGION S OF JET ENERGY MOVING ACROSS ERN GULF AND SW N ATLC...WITH ISOLATED MOD TO STRONG CNVTN OCCURRING ALONG REMNANTS. WINDS ACROSS NW PORTIONS HAVE VEERED SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING LOW PRES IN THE N GULF. EXPECT A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS OR TROUGHS TO PASS THROUGH THE NW CARIBBEAN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD BRINGING VARYING AND SHIFTING WINDS THERE. MODERATE TRADE WINDS PERSIST ELSEWHERE...EXCEPT FRESH TO STRONG OFF OF COLOMBIA DUE TO HIGH PRES CENTERED W OF BERMUDA ALONG 72W. WINDS OF COLOMBIA WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE TO FRESH TO STRONG THE NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS. SEAS ARE GENERALLY 3 TO 5 FT...EXCEPT OFF COLOMBIA WHERE SEAS ARE LIKELY 7-8 FT...AND IN THE NE AND E CARIB PASSAGES WHERE NE SWELL IS KEEPING SEAS AT 5 TO 7 FT AND SHOULD BE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING. IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...MODERATE NE TRADES CURRENTLY PREVAIL. LARGE NE SWELL PROPAGATING THROUGH THE ATLC WATERS RECENTLY MEASURED AT 7-9 FT BY ALTIMETER PASS BUT WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. SEAS OF 5-7 FT WILL THEN PREVAIL FRI NIGHT THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...SUBSIDING TO 4-6 FT MON INTO MON NIGHT. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 24N60W TO CENTRAL CUBA...WHILE WEAK RIDGING CONTINUES ALONG 32N...WITH 1022 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 72W AND WILL SHIFT E NEXT FEW DAYS. NE SWELL IS SUBSIDING ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...WITH BUOYS AND ALTIMETER DATA INDICATING SEAS ARE LESS THAN 8 FT OVER MOST OF THE AREA WEST OF 70W. THE MAIN ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK OF LOW PRES OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SE U.S. THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. FRESHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE WATERS W OF 75W AS LOW SHIFTS TOWARDS AND ACROSS FL PANHANDLE THROUGH 18Z. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO GALE FORCE ACROSS THE ZONES N OF 27N BY 18Z...AND POTENTIALLY BY 15Z ACROSS NW PORTIONS...THEN SPREADING NE THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN SHIFTING FURTHER NE SAT AND N OF 30N E OF 65W BY 00Z SUN. CONDITIONS TO RAPIDLY IMPROVE IN THE WAKE OF A TRAILING COLD FRONT AS WEAK HIGH PRES SLIDES E FROM GULFMEX ACROSS FL AND INTO SW N ATLC ALONG 28N. THE IMPROVED CONDITIONS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS YET ANOTHER DEVELOPING LOW PRES SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO IMPACT WATERS W OF 70W THIS WEEKEND. FORECAST CONFIDENCES IS INCREASING SLIGHTLY AS MODELS COMING IN SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT. AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE IN THESE VERY PROGRESSIVE PATTERNS...THE GFS IS FASTEST WITH LOW AND EURO MODELS SLOWER...AND AGAIN HAVE BLENDED IN MORE ECMWF THAN NORMALLY USED. CONSENSUS SUGGESTS SLY GALES AHEAD OF LOW AT OR JUST BEFORE 18Z SUN N OF 27N W OF 70W...AND POSSIBLY BEGINNING W OF 78W ACROSS FL NEAR AND OFFSHORE COASTAL WATERS N OF 26-27N BY 12-15Z. LOW TO SHIFT QUICKLY NE AND OUT OF AREA BY 00Z MON WITH GALES AHEAD OF LOW AND ASSOCIATED DRAGGING FRONT SHIFTING E OF AREA WATERS SHORTLY AFTER 12Z MON AND OUT OF HSF AREA BY 12Z TUE. SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS OCCURRING TO THE NW ACROSS NEW ENGLAND COASTAL WATERS WILL CREATE LARGE AND BROAD NWLY FETCH BEHIND A FRONT TRAILING FIRST LOW...TO GENERATE HIGH SEAS N AND NE PORTIONS THROUGH MID WEEK. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ011...NW GULF INCLUDING STETSON BANK... GALE WARNING SAT NIGHT. .GMZ013...N CENTRAL GULF INCLUDING FLOWER GARDEN BANKS MARINE SANCTUARY... GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY. GALE WARNING SAT NIGHT. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT. .GMZ015...NE GULF N OF 25N E OF 87W... GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY INTO TODAY. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. .GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W... GALE WARNING SAT NIGHT. .GMZ019...CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N BETWEEN 87W AND 94W... GALE WARNING SAT NIGHT. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ111...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N W OF 77W... GALE WARNING TODAY. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUN. .AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W... GALE WARNING TODAY INTO TONIGHT. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUN INTO SUN NIGHT. .AMZ115...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W... GALE WARNING TONIGHT INTO SAT. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT. .AMZ117...BAHAMAS INCLUDING CAY SAL BANK... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUN. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.