000 AGXX40 KNHC 141921 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 221 PM EST THU JAN 14 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. LATEST TAFB-NWPS BLENDED WITH LATEST MWW3 FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. DEEPENING CYCLOGENESIS CONTINUES OVER THE WESTERN GULF AHEAD OF A VIGOROUS MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE RESULTING 1012 MB LOW PRES AREA CENTERED NEAR 24N96W WILL DEEPEN AS IT SHIFTS NE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE MID/UPPER TROUGH TOWARD THE N CENTRAL GULF. THE GFS IS STILL HOLDING ONTO SOUTHERLY WINDS TO GALE FORCE AHEAD OF THE LOW PRES OVER THE NE GULF...ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF AND UKMET ARE ONLY SHOWING WINDS TO 30 KT. EVEN IF SUSTAINED GALES DO NOT OCCUR TONIGHT IN THE NE GULF...CONDITIONS WILL BE UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO MIX GALE FORCE GUSTS TO THE SURFACE AND GALE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT AS A RESULT. THE LOW PRES WILL SHIFT NE OF THE AREA THROUGH GEORGIA LATER FRI DRAGGING A DEVELOPING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF IN ITS WAKE. THE SOUTHERLY GALES WILL DIMINISH THROUGH MIDDAY FRI AS THE LOW PRES LIFTS NE. WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF FRI NIGHT AND SAT MORNING AS HIGH PRES MOVES RAPIDLY ACROSS THE BASIN FROM TEXAS TO FLORIDA...AHEAD OF THE NEXT DEEPENING LOW PRES SYSTEM EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST BY LATE SAT. WINDS TO GALE FORCE WILL ACCOMPANY THIS LOW OVER THE NW GULF SAT EVENING...SPREADING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH SAT. STRONG NW WINDS AND SEAS OF 8 TO 12 FT WILL FOLLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF THROUGH EARLY SUN. THE 12Z RUNS OF THE MODELS ARE IN A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT THAN PREVIOUS RUNS SHOWING THE LOW PRES SOMEWHERE IN THE EASTERN GULF BY SUN MORNING...WITH THE UKMET TRENDING MORE TO THE SW THAN EARLIER POSITIONS IN LINE WITH THE GFS NEAR TAMPA FLORIDA. THE ECMWF AND ITS ENSEMBLE ARE STILL SHOWING THE LOW MORE TO THE SW. THE LOW WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE BASIN BY LATE SUN...WITH WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISHING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. LATEST TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A STATIONARY FRONT FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO NORTHERN BELIZE IS STARTING TO DISSIPATE AS A FRONT...AS WINDS START TO VEER MORE TO THE SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF DEEPENING LOW PRES IN THE GULF. EXPECT A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS OR TROUGHS TO PASS THROUGH THE NW CARIBBEAN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD BRINGING VARYING AND SHIFTING WINDS THERE. MODERATE TRADE WINDS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE...EXCEPT FRESH TO STRONG OFF OF COLOMBIA DUE TO BUILDING HIGH PRES OVER THE SE UNITED STATES AND WESTERN ATLC...ALONG WITH LOW PRES OVER COLOMBIA. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE TO FRESH TO STRONG THE NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS WITH A SIMILAR PRES PATTERN IN PLACE. SEAS ARE GENERALLY 3 TO 5 FT...EXCEPT OFF COLOMBIA WHERE SEAS ARE LIKELYTO 9 FT...AND IN THE MONA AND ANEGADA PASSAGES WHERE NORTHERLY SWELL IS BRINGING 5 TO 7 FT SEAS INTO THE NE CARIBBEAN WHICH ARE NOW GRADUALLY SUBSIDING. IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...MODERATE TRADES CURRENTLY PREVAIL. LARGE NORTHERLY SWELLS OF 8-10 FT ARE PROPAGATING THROUGH THE WATERS BUT WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. SEAS OF 5-7 FT WILL THEN PREVAIL FRI NIGHT THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...SUBSIDING TO 4-6 FT MON INTO MON NIGHT. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. LATEST TAFB-NWPS BLENDED WITH LATEST MWW3 FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY...THEN LOW CONFIDENCE. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 24.5N65W TO CENTRAL CUBA...AS WEAK RIDGING BUILDS ALONG 28N TO THE NORTH. NE SWELLS ARE FINALLY SUBSIDING ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...WITH BUOYS AND ALTIMETER DATA INDICATING SEAS ARE LESS THAN 8 FT OVER MOST OF THE AREA WEST OF 60W. THE MAIN ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK OF LOW PRES OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS THROUGH LATE FRI. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL LIFT N AS A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE WESTERN WATERS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRI AS THE LOW APPROACHES THE AREA WITH FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW S OF THE WARM FRONT ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS W OF 70W LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRI MORNING. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO GALE WARNING FORCE ACROSS THE ZONES N OF 29N BY LATE FRI SPREADING EASTWARD THROUGH FRI NIGHT...THEN DIMINISHING N OF 27N COMPLETELY BY SAT AFTERNOON WITH CONDITIONS RAPIDLY IMPROVING IN THE WAKE OF A TRAILING COLD FRONT AS HIGH PRES BRIEFLY BUILDS IN. THE IMPROVED CONDITIONS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS YET ANOTHER DEVELOPING LOW PRES SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO IMPACT WATERS W OF 70W THIS WEEKEND. FORECAST CONFIDENCES DECREASES THEREAFTER AS THE GFS AND UKMET MOVE THE LOW NE OF CAPE CANAVERAL BY SUN AFTERNOON WHILE THE ECMWF WEAKENS THE LOW. WITHOUT A GOOD IDEA ON THE POSITION OF THE LOW PRES OFF EASTERN FLORIDA BY LATE SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH REGARD TO THE EXACT PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF POTENTIAL ACCOMPANYING GALES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DOES NOT DIVERGE MUCH AT THIS TIME FROM EARLIER THINKING AND ONGOING SREF OUTPUT SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR GALES OVER THE WATERS N OF 29N SUN AND AND SUN NIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL THEN RAPIDLY IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF THIS NEXT LOW AND A TRAILING COLD FRONT FOR MON INTO MON NIGHT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ011...NW GULF INCLUDING STETSON BANK... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT. .GMZ013...N CENTRAL GULF INCLUDING FLOWER GARDEN BANKS MARINE SANCTUARY... GALE WARNING TONIGHT. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT. .GMZ015...NE GULF N OF 25N E OF 87W... GALE WARNING TONIGHT INTO FRI. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUN. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ111...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N W OF 77W... GALE WARNING FRI. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUN. .AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W... GALE WARNING FRI INTO FRI NIGHT. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUN INTO SUN NIGHT. .AMZ115...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W... GALE WARNING FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.