000 AGXX40 KNHC 140800 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 300 AM EST THU JAN 14 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. LATEST TAFB-NWPS BLENDED WITH LATEST MWW3 FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THROUGH FRI...THEN LOW CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER. DEVELOPING 1012 MB LOW PRES IS IN THE W CENTRAL GULF NEAR 23N95W WITH A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT EXTENDING E-NE FROM THE LOW TO 24N94W TO 24.5N90W TO 24N87W...AND A NORTH-SOUTH TROUGH ALONG 95W. RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASSES INDICATED FRESH TO STRONG WINDS N OF THE WARM FRONT WITH FRESH WINDS DEVELOPING S OF THE WARM FRONT. SEAS ARE 6-8 FT IN THESE AREAS AS WELL. MEANWHILE BROAD AND WEAK RIDGING COVERED THE N CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF AHEAD OF THIS LOW WITH MAINLY MODERATE E-SE FLOW NOTED...EXCEPT IN THE SE GULF WHERE FRESH E-SE WINDS ARE PRESENT...WITH 1-3 FT IN THE N CENTRAL AND NE GULF...AND 3-5 FT IN THE SE GULF. THE LOW WILL MOVE TO THE N THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE TURNING MORE NE TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO GALE FORCE LATE TONIGHT (BY 06 UTC) AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH 18 UTC FRI UNTIL THE LOW MOVES OFF TO THE NE OF THE AREA. THE LOW WILL DRAG A DEVELOPING AND TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE BASIN IN ITS WAKE EXITING THE EASTERN GULF FRI NIGHT. FRESH TO STRONG W-NW WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT IN THE NE GULF WITH MODERATE TO FRESH ELSEWHERE. WEAK HIGH PRES WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FRI AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...THEN WILL EXIT TO THE E BY EARLY SAT AHEAD OF THE NEXT POTENTIAL LOW PRES SYSTEM AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT. SIGNIFICANT MODEL DISAGREEMENT REMAINS WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM WITH REGARD TO THE INTENSITY AND TRACK OF THE LOW WITH THE GFS TRACKING THE LOW ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS SAT AFTERNOON...EXITING OFF TO THE NE-E BY SUN MORNING...WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK ACROSS S FLORIDA. THE UKMET SHOWS A TRACK IN BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS...BUT CLOSER TO THE GFS. ALL THREE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS AT LEAST THE ZONES N OF 26N WHICH IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST SREF AND GEFS 34 KT WIND PROBABILITIES. WILL HEADLINE GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FOR ZONES GMZ011-13-15 FOR NOW GIVEN THE SUPPORT...BUT THE EXACT TIMING REMAINS IN QUESTION AS DOES THE EXTENT OF HOW FAR S GALE FORCE WINDS WILL COVER. EXPECT STRONG TO POSSIBLY GALE FORCE NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE LOW AND TRAILING FRONT WITH CONDITIONS RAPIDLY IMPROVING FROM WEST TO EAST SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN ACROSS THE BASIN. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. LATEST TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN REACHING FROM WESTERN CUBA TO OFF THE COAST OF YUCATAN TO THE AND NORTHERN BELIZE. FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS ARE NOTED NW OF THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WITH HIGH PRES OVER THE SE UNITED STATES SUPPORTING A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT THERE. THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS...THEN WILL LIKELY GET DRAWN NORTHWARD OR MERGE WITH A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SE IN THE NW CARIBBEAN AS A RESULT. EXPECT A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS OR TROUGHS TO PASS THROUGH THE NW CARIBBEAN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD BRINGING VARYING AND SHIFTING WINDS THERE. MODERATE TRADE WINDS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE...EXCEPT FRESH TO STRONG OFF OF COLOMBIA DUE TO BUILDING HIGH PRES OVER THE SE UNITED STATES AND WESTERN ATLC...ALONG WITH LOW PRES OVER COLOMBIA. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE TO FRESH TO STRONG THE NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS WITH A SIMILAR PRES PATTERN IN PLACE. SEAS ARE GENERALLY 3 TO 5 FT...EXCEPT OFF COLOMBIA WHERE SEAS ARE LIKELY 8-10 FT...AND IN THE MONA AND ANEGADA PASSAGES WHERE NORTHERLY SWELL IS BRINGING 5 TO 7 FT SEAS INTO THE NE CARIBBEAN WHICH ARE NOW GRADUALLY SUBSIDING. IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...MODERATE TRADES CURRENTLY PREVAIL. LARGE NORTHERLY SWELLS OF 8-10 FT ARE PROPAGATING THROUGH THE WATERS BUT WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. SEAS OF 5-7 FT WILL THEN PREVAIL FRI NIGHT THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...SUBSIDING TO 4-6 FT MON INTO MON NIGHT. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. LATEST TAFB-NWPS BLENDED WITH LATEST MWW3 FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A STATIONARY FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM 24.5N65W TO 22N77.5W. WEAK HIGH PRES RIDGING IS NOTED JUST E-SE OF THE STATIONARY FRONT WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND 6-9 FT SEAS IN NE SWELL...WHICH WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS NOW MERGING WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT WITH THE COLD PORTION HAVING SHIFTED E OF 65W DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS FRONT HAS USHERED IN 7-10 FT NORTHERLY SWELL IN THE NE CORNER ACROSS ZONE AMZ115 WHICH WILL DECAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRES RIDGING EXTENDS ALONG 28N/29N W OF 65W IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS NOTED NW OF THE STATIONARY FRONT...EXCEPT BETWEEN THE WESTERN BAHAMAS AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA WHERE FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS ARE DEVELOPING DUE TO A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT. MEANWHILE LOW PRES IS IN THE PROCESS OF DEVELOPING IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS THROUGH LATE FRI. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL LIFT N AS A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE WESTERN WATERS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRI AS THE LOW APPROACHES THE AREA WITH FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW S OF THE WARM FRONT ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS W OF 70W LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRI MORNING. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO GALE FORCE ACROSS THE ZONES N OF 27N BY 18 UTC FRI (UP TO 40 KT AS THE LOW DEEPENS NW-N OF THE AREA) SPREADING EASTWARD THROUGH FRI NIGHT...THEN DIMINISHING N OF 27N COMPLETELY BY SAT AFTERNOON WITH CONDITIONS RAPIDLY IMPROVING IN THE WAKE OF A TRAILING COLD FRONT AS HIGH PRES BRIEFLY BUILDS IN. THE IMPROVED CONDITIONS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS YET ANOTHER DEVELOPING LOW PRES SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO IMPACT THE NW AND NORTHERN WATERS THIS WEEKEND. ALOT OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH THIS NEXT LOW AS FAR AS THE TRACK AND INTENSITY ARE CONCERNED HOWEVER...GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE DOES SUPPORT AT LEAST MINIMAL GALES N OF 27N STARTING IN ZONE AMZ111 SUN MORNING AND SPREADING EASTWARD THROUGH LATE SUN NIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL THEN RAPIDLY IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF THIS NEXT LOW AND A TRAILING COLD FRONT FOR MON INTO MON NIGHT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ011...NW GULF INCLUDING STETSON BANK... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT. .GMZ013...N CENTRAL GULF INCLUDING FLOWER GARDEN BANKS MARINE SANCTUARY... GALE WARNING TONIGHT. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT. .GMZ015...NE GULF N OF 25N E OF 87W... GALE WARNING TONIGHT INTO FRI. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUN. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ111...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N W OF 77W... GALE WARNING FRI. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUN. .AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W... GALE WARNING FRI INTO FRI NIGHT. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUN INTO SUN NIGHT. .AMZ115...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W... GALE WARNING FRI NIGHT. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.