000 AGXX40 KNHC 131946 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 246 PM EST WED JAN 13 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. LATEST TAFB-NWPS BLENDED WITH LATEST MWW3 FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE INTO THU...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE LATE THU INTO FRI...THEN LOW CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER. A RECENT ASCAT DATA INDICATES A SHARP SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE SW GULF OF MEXICO. EARLIER PASSES AND OBSERVATIONS FROM OFF VERACRUZ INDICATED STRONG NW TO N WINDS...ALTHOUGH THIS HAS DIMINISHED SINCE EARLY MORNING. WINDS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTHERN GULF ARE INCREASING HOWEVER...BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE SW GULF UNDER AN ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM JET. A MID/UPPER DISTURBANCE ALONG THE JET WILL EMERGE OFF MEXICO TONIGHT...ALLOWING LOW PRES TO FORM ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH OFF THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE BY EARLY THU. THE SUPPORTING DISTURBANCE WILL COME IN PHASE WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THU...ALLOWING THE LOW PRES TO DEEPEN AND MOVE NE TOWARD THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF THROUGH LATE THU/EARLY FRI MORNING. THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE CONTINUES TO BE THE POSSIBILITY OF SOUTHERLY GALE FORCE WINDS AHEAD OF THE LOW PRES OVER PORTIONS OF THE N CENTRAL AND NE GULF EARLY FRI MORNING. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATED THE SUPPORTING UPPER TROUGH WILL HAVE A SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE TILT AND WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR THE SURFACE LOW TO DEEPEN. THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW GALES INTO THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AREA FRI MORNING. THE SREF OUTPUT SHOWS SOME POTENTIAL FOR GALES AS WELL IN THIS AREA...BUT LATER ON FRI AND WITH PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 20 PERCENT. ENSEMBLE GFS ALSO SHOWING EVEN LESS OF A CHANCE FOR GALES. THIS MAY BE DUE TO CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TRACK OF THE LOW...AND GIVEN THE PERSISTENCE OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS...GALES CANNOT BE RULED OUT. IN ADDITION...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE OVER THE NE GULF AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUPPORTING UPPER TROUGH. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL LIKELY STAY 8 TO 10 FT GIVEN THE LIMITED DURATION AND FETCH OF THE STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IF THE GALES ARE LARGELY IN THE FORM OF FREQUENT GUSTS...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER SEAS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR CONVECTION. LOOKING AHEAD...THE LOW PRES WILL LIFT OUT OF THE AREA EARLY FRI FOLLOWED BY RAPIDLY MOVING WEAK HIGH PRES ACROSS THE BASIN. THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO THE NEXT LOW PRES AREA EXPECTED TO EMERGE OFF THE COAST OF TEXAS EARLY SAT AND MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF THROUGH SUN. THE 12Z GFS AND UKMET ARE IN VERY ROUGH AGREEMENT SHOWING THE LOW REACHING INTO THE ATLC BY SUN...BUT THE 12Z ECMWF REMAINS MUCH SLOWER...KEEPING THE LOW PRES OVER THE SE GULF. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS A MODIFIED BLEND OF THE GFS AND UKMET FOR NOW BUT FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS ARE LIKELY. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. LATEST TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN REACHING FROM WESTERN CUBA TO OFF THE COAST OF YUCATAN TO THE AND EASTERN BELIZE. FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS ARE NOTED NW OF THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WITH HIGH PRES OVER THE SE UNITED STATES SUPPORTING A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT THERE. THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THEN WILL LIKELY GET DRAWN NORTHWARD OR MERGE WITH A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SE IN THE NW CARIBBEAN AS A RESULT. EXPECT A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS OR TROUGHS TO PASS THROUGH THE NW CARIBBEAN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD BRINGING VARYING AND SHIFTING WINDS THERE. MODERATE TRADE WINDS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE...EXCEPT FRESH TO STRONG OFF OF COLOMBIA DUE TO BUILDING HIGH PRES OVER THE SE UNITED STATES AND WESTERN ATLC...ALONG WITH LOW PRES OVER COLOMBIA. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE TO FRESH TO STRONG THE NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS WITH A SIMILAR PRES PATTERN IN PLACE. SEAS ARE GENERALLY 3 TO 5 FT...EXCEPT OFF COLOMBIA WHERE SEAS ARE LIKELY 8-10 FT... AND IN THE MONA AND ANEGADA PASSAGES WHERE NORTHERLY SWELL IS BRINGING 6 TO 8 FT SEAS INTO THE NE CARIBBEAN. IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...MODERATE TRADES CURRENTLY PREVAIL. LARGE NORTHERLY SWELLS OF 8-11 FT ARE PROPAGATING THROUGH THE WATERS AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. SEAS OF 5-7 FT WILL THEN PREVAIL FRI NIGHT THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. LATEST TAFB-NWPS BLENDED WITH LATEST MWW3 FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A STATIONARY FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM 29N65W TO 23N80W. WEAK HIGH PRES RIDGING IS NOTED JUST SE OF THE STATIONARY FRONT WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND 6-10 FT SEAS IN NE SWELL WHICH WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THIS EVENING THEN SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA THU. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT N OF THE AREA IS MERGING WITH THE FRONT...AND THE MERGED FRONTS WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT...LEAVING THE STATIONARY FRONT STALLED ALONG ROUGHLY THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND CENTRAL CUBA. HIGH PRES WILL FOLLOW THE REINFORCED FRONT AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD...AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW PRES MOVING ACROSS THE N CENTRAL AND NE GULF LATE THU AND FRI. THE LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS THROUGH LATE FRI. THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOUTHERLY GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE WATERS N OF THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND EAST OF NE FLORIDA LATE FRI. THE OPERATIONAL GFS...ECMWF...AND UKMET ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR GALES IN THIS AREA BY FRI NIGHT...LASTING INTO SAT MORNING WITH SEAS TO 12 FT...LIFTING NE OF THE AREA THROUGH LATE SAT. SREF GUIDANCE IS ALSO FAIRLY BULLISH WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR GALES AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN OFFICIAL GRIDDED FORECASTS. A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY FOLLOWS WITH THE GLOBAL MODELS IN POOR AGREEMENT AS TO THE APPROACH OF LOW PRES ACROSS THE REGION. FORECAST REFLECTS A UKMET/GFS BLEND SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR STRONG NW WINDS OFF NE FLORIDA BY LATE SUN. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ013...N CENTRAL GULF INCLUDING FLOWER GARDEN BANKS MARINE SANCTUARY... GALE WARNING THU NIGHT. .GMZ015...NE GULF N OF 25N E OF 87W... GALE WARNING THU NIGHT. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.