000 AGXX40 KNHC 130800 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 300 AM EST WED JAN 13 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. LATEST TAFB-NWPS BLENDED WITH LATEST MWW3 FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE INTO THU...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THU THROUGH FRI NIGHT...THEN LOW CONFIDENCE. AN OLD STATIONARY FRONT IS ANALYZED JUST SE OF THE BASIN EXTENDING FROM WESTERN CUBA TO THE EASTERN SHORE OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN. RECENT SCATTEROMETER AND BUOY/SHIP OBSERVATIONS INDICATED FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS IN THE SE GULF TO THE NW OF THIS BOUNDARY. MEANWHILE A TROUGH IS ANALYZED IN THE WESTERN GULF EXTENDING FROM 25N92W TO 22N94W TO 20N93W TO 18N93W. SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED FRESH TO STRONG WINDS S OF 25N W OF THE TROUGH. MEANWHILE PLENTIFUL MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED FROM THE TROPICAL NE PACIFIC WATERS TO THE NE-E ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO AND EASTWARD ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE GULF BASIN AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS NOTED. OTHERWISE BROAD RIDGING IS ANALYZED FROM NEAR LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA TO THE SW FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR NAPLES WITH MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC WINDS UNDERNEATH IT. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO LINGER IN THE WESTERN GULF FOR THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS WITH LOW PRES DEVELOPING ALONG IT NEAR 22N95.5W BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL THEN SLOWLY MOVE NORTHWARD TO NEAR 23N96W BY LATE TONIGHT...THEN TO NEAR 27N96W BY THU AFTERNOON WHILE DEEPENING. SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO THE EXACT SPEED AND TRACK OF THE LOW REMAINS BETWEEN GLOBAL MODEL SOLUTIONS. THE GFS AND UKMET ARE SIMILAR WITH THE TRACK AND TIMING BRINGING THE LOW NEAR 30N88.5W BY SUNRISE FRI...WHILE THE LATEST ECMWF IS MORE TO THE E NEAR 30N85W AT THE SAME TIME. THE GFS CAPS SOUTHERLY WINDS OUT AHEAD OF THE LOW AND AN ATTENDANT WARM FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF AT 30 KT...WHILE INTERESTINGLY THE ECMWF SOLUTION SHOWS 40 KT WITH THE UKMET BARELY SHOWING A SMALL AREA OF 35 KT. MEANWHILE THE GEFS 34 KT PROBABILITIES ARE NEAR 0 PERCENT WHILE THE SREF 34 KT PROBABILITIES ARE 5 PERCENT OR LESS. WILL CONTINUE TO CAP WINDS AT 30 KT BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE EVOLUTION OF THIS LOW IN CASE THE FORECAST INCREASES TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE. THE LOW WILL EXIT THE GULF OFF TO THE NE BY FRI NIGHT WITH A TRAILING TROUGH OR COLD FRONT SCOOTING ACROSS THE NE AND E GULF WITH FRESH TO STRONG W-NW WINDS BEHIND IT FOR FRI NIGHT. HIGH PRES WILL THEN QUICKLY AND BRIEFLY BUILD IN BEHIND THE LOW AND TROUGH/FRONT BY EARLY SAT...BUT WILL GET SHOVED OFF TO THE E AS THE NEXT DEVELOPING LOW BEGINS TO MATERIALIZED EITHER OVER SE TEXAS OR IN THE FAR NW GULF. GLOBAL MODEL SOLUTIONS DIFFER QUITE A BIT WITH THIS NEXT LOW. THE GFS HAS THE LOW OVER SE LOUISIANA BY 00Z SUN WITH THE UKMET ABOUT 150 NM TO THE SW OF THE GFS SOLUTION...AND THE ECMWF ANOTHER 120 NM SW-W OF THE UKMET SOLUTION. THE GFS AND UKMET BOTH SHOW AN INTENSIFYING LOW WITH A LARGE AREA OF GALE FORCE WINDS BOTH SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THE LOW AND NORTHERLY BEHIND THE LOW AND A TRAILING FRONT/TROUGH. THE ECMWF ALSO SHOWS AN AREA OF GALES BUT MUCH LESS IN COVERAGE WITH THIS MODEL DIAGNOSING A WEAKER LOW CENTER AND MORE SOUTHERN TRACK. NEEDLESS TO SAY MUCH UNCERTAINTY IS PRESENT WITH THIS SECOND LOW DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. LATEST TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN REACHING FROM WESTERN CUBA TO OFF THE COAST OF YUCATAN TO THE AND EASTERN BELIZE. FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS ARE NOTED NW OF THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WITH HIGH PRES OVER THE SE UNITED STATES SUPPORTING A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT THERE. THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THEN WILL LIKELY GET DRAWN NORTHWARD OR MERGE WITH A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SE IN THE NW CARIBBEAN AS A RESULT. EXPECT A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS OR TROUGHS TO PASS THROUGH THE NW CARIBBEAN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD BRINGING VARYING AND SHIFTING WINDS THERE. MODERATE TRADE WINDS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE...EXCEPT FRESH TO STRONG OFF OF COLOMBIA DUE TO BUILDING HIGH PRES OVER THE SE UNITED STATES AND WESTERN ATLC...ALONG WITH LOW PRES OVER COLOMBIA. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE TO FRESH TO STRONG THE NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS WITH A SIMILAR PRES PATTERN IN PLACE. SEAS ARE GENERALLY 3 TO 5 FT...EXCEPT OFF COLOMBIA WHERE SEAS ARE LIKELY 8-10 FT...AND IN THE MONA AND ANEGADA PASSAGES WHERE NORTHERLY SWELL IS BRINGING 6 TO 8 FT SEAS INTO THE NE CARIBBEAN. IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...MODERATE TRADES CURRENTLY PREVAIL. LARGE NORTHERLY SWELLS OF 8-11 FT ARE PROPAGATING THROUGH THE WATERS AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. SEAS OF 5-7 FT WILL THEN PREVAIL FRI NIGHT THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. LATEST TAFB-NWPS BLENDED WITH LATEST MWW3 FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A STATIONARY FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM 30N65W TO 23N80W. WEAK HIGH PRES RIDGING IS NOTED JUST SE OF THE STATIONARY FRONT WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND 7-11 FT SEAS IN NE SWELL WHICH WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH TONIGHT. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS CLIPPING THE NORTHERN WATERS CURRENTLY ANALYZED FROM 31N75W TO 30N79W. FRESH WINDS AND SEAS OF 8-9 FT IN NORTHERLY SWELL WILL PROPAGATE THROUGH THE FAR N-NE CORNER N OF 29N/30N THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRES IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO THE NW PORTION BEHIND THIS REINFORCING FRONT LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THU...WITH WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISHING THROUGH THU. THE BUILDING HIGH WILL INDUCE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS FROM THE WESTERN BAHAMAS TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA BEGINNING THU EVENING. FRESH TO STRONG SE RETURN FLOW IS THEN FORECAST TO DOMINATE THE WATERS W OF 70W BY EARLY FRI AS THE HIGH PRES SHIFTS E TOWARD BERMUDA AND AHEAD OF DEEPENING LOW PRES MOVING FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE CAROLINAS. THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOUTHERLY GALE FORCE WINDS FRI AFTERNOON INTO NIGHT AND THEN INTO EARLY SAT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE STARTING BE MORE CONSISTENT WITH STRONGER WINDS AT THIS TIME...AND GALE WARNINGS MAY BE NECESSARY. THE LATEST GEFS 34 KT WIND PROBABILITIES ARE 20-40 PERCENT ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 29N/30N WHILE THE LATEST SREF 34 KT WIND PROBABILITIES ARE SIMILAR. IF THESE TRENDS CONTINUE GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WILL NEED TO BE HEADLINED FOR THE NORTHERN ZONES SOON. CONDITIONS THEN IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY SAT INTO SAT NIGHT AS HIGH PRES BRIEFLY BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA. THE NEXT LOW PRES SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE WATERS W OF 70W LATE SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN WITH ANOTHER POTENTIAL FOR SOUTHERLY GALE FORCE WINDS. MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH THIS NEXT LOW SO WILL CAP WINDS AT 30 KT FOR NOW UNTIL MODEL SOLUTIONS HOPEFULLY COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.