000 AGXX40 KNHC 121954 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 254 PM EST TUE JAN 12 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. LATEST TAFB-NWPS BLENDED WITH LATEST MWW3 FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE INTO THU...LOW CONFIDENCE THU NIGHT OVER NE GULF...THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER. A 17 UTC ASCAT PASS INDICATED 20 TO 25 KT WINDS OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO N OF TAMPICO...BETWEEN A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN GULF AND A SURFACE RIDGE REACHING ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS INTO TAMAULIPAS. THE PATTERN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS IS FOR THE TROUGH TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD INTO THE SW GULF AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW A BELT OF FRESH EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GULF THROUGH WED NIGHT. FOR THU AND FRI...GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT SHOWING A DEEP LAYER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TAKING ON A SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE TILT AS IT MOVES INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY FRI. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK LOW PRES BY THU MORNING OVER THE NW GULF. THIS FEATURE MAY DEEPEN QUICKLY AS IT LIFTS NE ACROSS ROUGHLY MOBILE BAY THROUGH FRI MORNING...THEN DEEPENING AS IT MOVES INTO THE CAROLINAS. THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THIS LOW OVER THE NE GULF INTO THE COASTAL AREAS OF ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY INDICATING THIS...AND FORECAST MAY HAVE TO BE REVISITED LATER TONIGHT TO INCREASE WINDS ACCORDINGLY POSSIBLE WITH A GALE WARNING. AT ANY EVENT...GRADIENT FLOW AND INSTABILITY WILL BE STRONGER ENOUGH TO GET GUSTS TO GALE FORCE AT THAT TIME. HIGH PRES MOVES RAPIDLY FROM THE NW GULF THROUGH THE SE GULF THROUGH LATE SAT BEHIND THE LOW PRES AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE TEXAS COAST BY SAT NIGHT...BRINING FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...DIMINISHING THEREAFTER. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. LATEST TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN REACHING FROM WESTERN CUBA TO OFF THE COAST OF YUCATAN TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS. A WEAK RESIDENT TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTH OF GRAND CAYMAN TO NEAR PROVIDENCIA ISLAND. MODERATE TRADE WINDS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE WITH 20 KT NOTED OFF COLOMBIA. SEAS ARE GENERALLY 3 TO 5 FT EXCEPT OFF COLOMBIA WHERE SEAS ARE LIKELY ALMOST 8 FT...AND IN THE MONA AND ANEGADA PASSAGES WHERE NORTHERLY SWELL IS BRINING 6 TO 7 FT SEAS INTO THE NE CARIBBEAN. BUILDING HIGH PRES OVER SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND WESTERN ATLC ALONG WITH LOW PRES OVER COLOMBIA WILL ALLOW STRONG TRADES TO PULSE OFF COLOMBIA TONIGHT AS WELL AS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS. THE HIGH PRES WILL ALSO SUPPORT FRESH NE WINDS JUST SOUTH OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WED NIGHT. IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES CURRENTLY PREVAIL. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ALONG 16N WILL CONTINUE TO DROP S THROUGH THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. LARGE NORTHERLY SWELLS OF 8-11 FT ARE ARRIVING BEHIND THIS FRONT AND WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD THROUGH WED...THEN WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THEREAFTER. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. LATEST TAFB-NWPS BLENDED WITH LATEST MWW3 FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH WED NIGHT...THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM 29N65W TO 26N73W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY AND EXTENDS TO WESTERN CUBA NEAR 23N81W. LATEST OBSERVATIONS SHOW GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT AS HIGH PRES RIDGING IS BUILDING IN...ALONG WITH 5-8 FT IN N-NE SWELL. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE ALSO NOTED SE OF THE FRONT...EXCEPT UP TO FRESH NEAR THE APPROACH TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE DUE TO A LOCALLY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT. NE SWELLS OF 7-10FT ARE IMPACTING THE WATERS E OF THE FRONT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE ATLC COAST THIS EVENING AS SWEEP EASTWARD TO THE NORTH OF 29N THROUGH LATE WED. THIS WILL BRING AN AREA OF STRONG W TO NW WINDS AND SEAS TO 8 FT ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 29N LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WED. WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH THROUGH THU AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. FRESH TO STRONG SE RETURN FLOW WILL START OVER THE WATERS W OF 70W BY EARLY FRI...AS THE HIGH PRES SHIFTS E TOWARD BERMUDA AND AHEAD OF DEEPENING LOW PRES MOVING FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE CAROLINAS. THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOUTHERLY GALES FRI NIGHT AND SAT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE STARTING BE MORE CONSISTENT WITH STRONGER WINDS AT THIS TIME...AND GALE WARNINGS MAY BE NECESSARY. CONDITIONS THEN IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY SAT INTO SAT NIGHT AS HIGH PRES BRIEFLY BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.