000 AGXX40 KNHC 120800 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 300 AM EST TUE JAN 12 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. LATEST TAFB-NWPS BLENDED WITH LATEST MWW3 FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH WED NIGHT...THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THROUGH FRI NIGHT...THEN LOW CONFIDENCE SAT THROUGH SAT NIGHT. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS ALONG WITH CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW A STATIONARY FRONT JUST SE OF THE AREA FROM WESTERN CUBA TO THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN JUST S OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. RAIN HAS BEEN SPREADING ACROSS THE FAR SE GULF INCLUDING THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND OVER THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE FRONT WILL LINGER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON BEFORE GETTING PUSHED TONIGHT. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALSO ANALYZED IN THE WESTERN GULF FROM 26N94W TO 24N96W TO 20N97W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE WESTERN GULF WITH MID-UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE AREA. LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN...EXCEPT W OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WHERE A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT IS PRESENT BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND A NORTH TO SOUTH ORIENTED RIDGE JUST TO THE W OVER EASTERN MEXICO. FRESH TO STRONG NW-W WINDS ARE THEREFORE W OF THE TROUGH BEING FUNNELED UP ALONG THE COASTS OF TAMAULIPAS AND VERACRUZ. SEAS UP TO 8 FT IN THIS AREA...WITH MAINLY 3-5 FT ELSEWHERE EXCEPT 4-6 FT IN THE SE GULF...AND 1-3 FT IN THE NE GULF. HIGH PRES CURRENTLY OVER THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY WILL SLIDE TO THE E ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST REACHING SE GEORGIA WED NIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO FRESH TO STRONG IN THE SE GULF INCLUDING THE APPROACH TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL BY LATE TONIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 7-8 FT NEAR THE CHANNEL. THE TROUGH WILL LINGER IN THE SAME GENERAL VICINITY THROUGH WED. LOW PRES IS THEN FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE TROUGH IN THE W CENTRAL OR NW GULF. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THIS LOW COMPARED TO RUNS THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS. THE LATEST GFS...ECMWF...AND UKMET NOW ALL TAKE THE LOW INTO THE N CENTRAL GULF THU NIGHT...THEN NE AND INLAND OVER THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE EARLY FRI. THE ECMWF MOVES THE LOW INLAND THE FASTEST WITH THE UKMET SLIGHTLY SLOWER...AND THE GFS EVEN A LITTLE MORE SLOW. HOWEVER...ALL THREE MODEL SOLUTIONS KEEP WINDS NEAR THIS LOW AT 30 KT AT MOST. THE GFS DOES STILL APPEAR TO BE SUFFERING FROM SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES WITH STRONGER WINDS NOTED WELL OFF TO THE SE OF THE LOW WHICH DOES NOT SEEM REASONABLE WHILE INTERESTINGLY THE ECMWF IS SHOWING A SIMILAR ISSUE. IN ANY CASE...THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT OFF TO THE NE THROUGH FRI AND FRI NIGHT WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING IN ACROSS THE BASIN BY EARLY SAT. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A VERY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WITH YET ANOTHER LOW MOVING INTO OR DEVELOPING OVER THE NW GULF BY SAT EVENING... MOVING ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH SAT NIGHT. ALL THREE OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THIS LOW TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF AND THEN INLAND NEAR THE TAMPA BAY FLORIDA AREA BY EARLY SUN...HOWEVER THE GFS INDICATES THE STRONGEST WINDS...GALE FORCE...WHILE THE OTHER TWO GLOBAL SOLUTIONS DO NOT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. LATEST TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A STATIONARY FRONT IS ANALYZED IN THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN REACHING FROM WESTERN CUBA NEAR 22.5N82W TO JUST S OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 21N85W THEN SOUTHWARD TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS NEAR 16N87W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 90-120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT WITH FRESH N-NE WINDS W OF THE FRONT AND SEAS UP TO 7 FT NEAR THE CHANNEL. ASIDE FROM THE FRONT...GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS REMAIN OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. CURRENT BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 3-5 FT... EXCEPT FOR LOWER SEAS OF 2-3 FT IN THE FAR NE CARIBBEAN TO THE E OF THE FRONT...AND HIGHER SEAS OF 5-8 FT IN THE FAR S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA DUE TO THE RELATIVELY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT GENERATED THERE BETWEEN HIGHER PRES OVER THE NW ATLC AND LOWER PRES OVER NW COLOMBIA. THIS GRADIENT IS ALLOWING FOR FRESH NE-E WINDS TO PULSE THERE IN THE EVENINGS AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS WAS RECENTLY SAMPLED BY ASCAT AND ASCAT-B SCATTEROMETER PASSES. EXPECT THESE WINDS TO CONTINUE TO PULSE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SPEEDS POSSIBLY REACHING 30 KT LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WED. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 10 FT AS A RESULT. EXPECT THE PULSING CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. MEANWHILE...THE STATIONARY FRONT IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND SHIFT SE THROUGH TONIGHT...DISSIPATING EARLY WED. NE-E WINDS OF 15-20 KT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN AND YUCATAN CHANNEL THROUGH MUCH OF THU BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KT WITH SEAS OF ABOUT 5-6 FT. IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES CURRENTLY PREVAIL. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ALONG 16N WILL CONTINUE TO DROP S THROUGH THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. LARGE NORTHERLY SWELLS OF 8-11 FT ARE ARRIVING BEHIND THIS FRONT AND WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD THROUGH WED...THEN WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THEREAFTER. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. LATEST TAFB-NWPS BLENDED WITH LATEST MWW3 FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH WED NIGHT...THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM 31N64W TO 26N73W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY AND EXTENDS TO WESTERN CUBA NEAR 23N81W. LATEST OBSERVATIONS SHOW GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT AS HIGH PRES RIDGING IS BUILDING IN...ALONG WITH 5-8 FT IN N-NE SWELL. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE ALSO NOTED SE OF THE FRONT...EXCEPT UP TO FRESH NEAR THE APPROACH TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE DUE TO A LOCALLY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT. NE SWELLS OF 7-11 FT ARE IMPACTING THE WATERS E OF THE FRONT. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO DIP S OF 31N TODAY HELPING TO PUSH THE INITIAL FRONT OFF TO THE SE BEFORE STALLING FROM 25N65W TO 25N70W TO THE SE BAHAMAS BY LATE WED NIGHT. EXPECT A BRIEF ROUND OF FRESH TO STRONG W-NW WINDS AND SEAS TO 8 FT N OF 30N BEHIND THE REINFORCING FRONT LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT BEFORE IT CLIPS OFF TO THE NE-E BY EARLY THU. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS WITH FRESH NE WINDS EXPECTED W OF THE BAHAMAS TO S FLORIDA AND THE STRAITS WHERE THE PRES GRADIENT WILL BE RELATIVELY TIGHT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL HOLD THROUGH THU. HIGH PRES WILL THEN SHIFT EASTWARD REACHING 31N72W BY THU EVENING AHEAD OF A LOW PRES SYSTEM THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM THE NE GULF OF MEXICO TO OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINAS BY FRI NIGHT. FRESH TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE SW N ATLC BASIN DUE TO A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE EASTWARD MOVING HIGH AND THE LOW PRES SYSTEM. SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT REMAINS WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW AND WINDS WITH THE GFS SHOWING GALE FORCE ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS...HOWEVER IT APPEARS TO BE SUFFERING FROM SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK. CONDITIONS THEN IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY SAT INTO SAT NIGHT AS HIGH PRES BRIEFLY BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.