000 AGXX40 KNHC 111935 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 234 PM EST MON JAN 11 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR WINDS USED BLEND OF 12Z GFS WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL THROUGH DAY 2...THEN GFS/ECMWF BLEND DAYS 3 THROUGH 5. FOR WAVEHEIGHTS USED BLEND OF 12Z MWW3 AND TAFB NWPS OUTPUT WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH DAY 2...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE DAYS 3 THROUGH 5. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS ALONG WITH CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW THE COLD FRONT NOW HAVING REACHED THE FAR EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ALONG A POSITION FROM NEAR FORT MYERS SW TO THE NE YUCATAN PENINSULA COAST. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAVE NOW SHIFTED TO THE FAR SE WATERS ALONG AND NEAR THE FLORIDA KEYS. LATEST AND CURRENT BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW LIGHTER WINDS ACROSS THE AREA NOW THAT THE COLD FRONT HAS EXITED THE GULF...AND THE GRADIENT HAS LOOSEN. THE OBSERVATIONS ARE REPORTING SEAS IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE SE OF A LINE FROM 29N85W TO 28N83W...AND 2-4 FT NW OF THE SAME LINE. HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE BASIN THROUGH WED AND TO THE EASTERN GULF THU THROUGH FRI. CHANNEL. THE BUOY OBSERVATIONS OVER THE FAR WESTERN GULF ARE INDICATING THAT A COASTAL TROUGH IS DEVELOPING ROUGHLY NEAR 96W S OF 29N. BOTH BNDRY LAYER WIND AND MOISTURE GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS REFLECT THIS. THE GFS FORECASTS THE TROUGH TO MOVE LITTLE THROUGH WED NIGHT. STILL APPEARS THAT LOW PRES WILL FORM ON THE TROUGH NEAR 24N ON WED...AND SLOWLY LIFT N THROUGH THU BEFORE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THEN SWINGS E ACROSS THE NW AND CENTRAL GULF FRI. THIS WILL HELP ENERGIZE THE LOW...AND DRIVE IT ENE ACROSS THE N CENTRAL GULF DURING FRI BEFORE IT BECOMES ABSORBED INTO THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT SWEEPS ACROSS THE GULF ON FRI. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND TO E OF THE GULF BY LATE SAT. STILL THINK A BLEND OF THE GFS WITH THE ECMWF IS THE BEST SOLN FOR THIS FORECAST AS UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH WITH EXACT FORECAST POSITIONS AND TRACK OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW. NDFD WIND AND WAVEHEIGHT GRIDS WILL BE ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR WINDS USED BLEND OF 12Z GFS WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. FOR WAVEHEIGHTS USED BLEND OF 12Z MWW3 AND TAFB NWPS OUTPUT WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS ENTERED THE NW CARIBBEAN AND BECOME STATIOANRY FROM CENTRAL CUBA SW TO THE WESTERN PART OF THE GULF OF HONDURAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED TSTMS ARE NW OF THE FRONT. NE WINDS OF 15-20 KT ARE BEHIND THE FRONT. ASIDE FROM THIS...GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS REMAIN OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. CURRENT BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 3- 5 FT...EXCEPT FOR LOWER SEAS OF 2-3 FT IN THE FAR NE CARIBBEAN AND HIGHER SEAS OF 5-7 FT IN THE FAR S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA DUE TO THE RELATIVELY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT GENERATED THERE BETWEEN HIGHER PRES OVER THE NW ATLC AND LOWER PRES OVER NW COLOMBIA. THIS GRADIENT IS ALLOWING FOR FRESH NE-E WINDS TO PULSE THERE IN THE EVENINGS AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. EXPECT THESE WINDS TO CONTINUE TO PULSE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SPEEDS POSSIBLY REACHING THE STRONG RANGE FRI NIGHT AND SAT NIGHTS. SEAS WITH THESE WINDS WILL BE IN THE RANGE OF 6-8 FT WITH SEAS REACHING TO 10 FT FRI AND SAT NIGHT. THE STATIONARY FRONT IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN TO A TUE AND DISSIPATE BY WED AFTERNOON. NE-E WINDS OF 15-20 KT CONTINUE OVER THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN AND YUCATAN CHANNEL THROUGH MUCH OF THU BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KT WITH SEAS OF ABOUT 5-6 FT. IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...MODERATE TRADES AND 5-7 FT SEAS CURRENTLY PREVAIL. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT ALONG 17N WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS S AND LOSE ITS IDENTITY BY TUE NIGHT. LARGE NORTHERLY SWELLS WILL PROPAGATE DOWN ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATERS BY MON MORNING...MOVING SOUTHWARD THROUGH WED WITH SEAS OF 8-11 FT. AS SWELL ENERGY DISSIPATES...SEAS SUBSIDE TO 8-9 FT THU...AND DIMINISH TO 8 FT WHILE SHRINKING IN COVERAGE TO S OF ABOUT 15N BY FRI. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR WINDS USED BLEND OF 12Z GFS WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. FOR WAVEHEIGHTS USED BLEND OF 12Z MWW3 AND TAFB NWPS OUTPUT WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH DAY 2..MEDIUM CONFIDENCE DAYS 3 THROUGH 5. AS OF 18Z THIS AFTERNOON...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N68W SW TO CENTRAL CUBA WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA. A POST-FRONTAL WEAKENING FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N73W SW TO SE FLORIDA. ANOTHER PULSE OF LONG PERIOD N-NE SWELL HAS MOVE INTO THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE BASIN WITH SEAS IN THE 9-11 FT RANGE. SEAS ELSEWHERE ARE IN THE 6-9 FT NE OF THE BAHAMAS AND 1-3 FT SW OF THE BAHAMAS. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BRIEFLY STALL FROM NEAR 29N65W TO THE SE BAHAMAS ON TONIGHT ND DRIFT W TUE. THE FRONT WILL MOVE E AGAIN ON TUE NIGHT REACHING FROM NEAR 28N65W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS WHERE IT STALLS AND CONTINUES WESTWARD TO THE VICINITY OF S FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS AND INTO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO. FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT HAVE DIMINISHED TO MODERATE WINDS. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT LOW PRES FORMS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND TRACKS NE TO ACROSS N FLORIDA AND TO THE SE U.S. OR POSSIBLY TO NEAR THE FAR NW PART OF THE AREA FRI. WHICHEVER TRACK THE LOW TAKES...IT APPEARS THAT THE PRES GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN OVER MUCH OF THE WATERS N OF THE BAHAMAS FRI INTO AND SAT ALONG WITH BUILDING SEAS ALONG WITH A POSSIBLY OF WINDS REACHING GALE FORCE. WIND AND SEA HEIGHT FORECAST IN THE GRIDS WILL BE ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY BASED ON FUTURE MODEL TRENDS. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.