000 AGXX40 KNHC 110759 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 259 AM EST MON JAN 11 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. LATEST TAFB-NWPS BLENDED WITH LATEST MWW3 FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH WED NIGHT...THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS ALONG WITH CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW A FIRST COLD FRONT HAVING CLEARED THE GULF OFF TO THE SE IN THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS WHILE A REINFORCING COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM NEAR TAMPA BAY FLORIDA TO THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 24N89W. WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED AS HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY HOWEVER SOME LINGERING NORTHERLY SWELL UP TO 8 FT WAS NOTED BY BUOY OBSERVATIONS IN THE E CENTRAL GULF. THESE SEAS WILL SUBSIDE LATER THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...SEAS OF 2-4 FT ARE IN THE NW GULF WITH 3-6 FT ELSEWHERE. THE REINFORCING FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL JUST SE OF THE BASIN AND SE OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL LATER TODAY...THEN MAY DRIFT BACK NW N SLIGHTLY TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUE BEFORE DISSIPATING BACK OFF TO THE SE. MEANWHILE SURFACE TROUGHING IS IN THE PROCESS OF CONSOLIDATING IN THE SW AND W CENTRAL GULF. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES WINDS INCREASING TO FRESH TO STRONG W OF THE TROUGH AXIS WHICH WILL REACH FROM 26N97W TO 24N96W TO 19N95W BY EARLY TUE MORNING DUE A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND HIGH PRES RIDGING TO THE W OVER EASTERN MEXICO. THIS TROUGH WILL THEN LINGER IN THE SAME GENERAL AREA THROUGH WED. MEANWHILE HIGH PRES WILL SLIDE FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE E ALLOWING FOR E-SE RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE BASIN E OF THE TROUGH BY WED NIGHT AND A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT THEN DEVELOPING ON THE E SIDE OF THE TROUGH DUE TO A TIGHTENING GRADIENT THERE. LOW PRES IS STILL EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG THE TROUGH LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU. THERE REMAINS SIGNIFICANT MODEL GUIDANCE DISAGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE EVOLUTION OF THIS PENDING LOW...SPECIFICALLY THE TRACK AND STRENGTH. THE GFS REMAINS THE OUTLIER SHOWING 10-M WINDS UP TO 55 KT BY THU NIGHT...WHILE THE ECMWF AND UKMET SHOW A MUCH MORE REASONABLE 30 KT AT MOST. THE LATEST GEFS 34 KT PROBABILITIES HAVE INCREASED FROM 0 PERCENT TO UP TO 30 PERCENT NOW FROM LAST NIGHTS RUN TO TONIGHTS. THE GFS ALSO REMAINS THE MOST SOUTHERN TRACK WITH THE UKMET THE MOST NORTHERN...WHILE THE ECMWF IS SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN BUT CLOSER TO THE UKMET SOLUTION. NEEDLESS TO SAY CONFIDENCE REMAINS QUITE LOW FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. LATEST TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT HAS MANAGED TO SLIP INTO THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE BASIN WITH THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATING IT EXTENDING FROM WESTERN CUBA NEAR 22N82W TO THE WESTERN GULF OF HONDURAS NEAR 16N88W. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY ANIMATION/LOOPS INDICATE THAT THE FRONT IS IN THE PROCESS OF STALLING...IF IT ALREADY HAS NOT IN THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. WINDS UP TO 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE W OF THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...ALONG WITH SEAS UP TO 7 FT. THE FRONT MAY DRIFT BACK TO THE NW TO N TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUE BEFORE DISSIPATING THEREAFTER. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN. CURRENT BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW SEAS MAINLY IN THE 2-4 FT RANGE...EXCEPT 2 FT OR LESS IN THE NW CARIBBEAN TO THE E OF THE FRONT...AND 5-7 FT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA DUE TO THE RELATIVELY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT GENERATED THERE BETWEEN HIGHER PRES OVER THE NW ATLC AND LOWER PRES OVER NW COLOMBIA. THIS GRADIENT IS ALLOWING FOR FRESH NE-E WINDS TO CONTINUE TO PULSE THERE IN THE EVENINGS AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS WAS CONFIRMED BY RECENT ASCAT AND ASCAT-B SCATTEROMETER PASSES. EXPECT THESE WINDS TO CONTINUE TO PULSE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 6-8 FT...BRIEFLY BUILDING TO 8-10 FT TUE NIGHT AS WINDS MAY TOP OUT AT 30 KT FOR A FEW HOURS. IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...A COLD FRONT IS SLIPPING S OF 19N EARLY THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY GENTLE WINDS NOTED ACROSS THE WATERS. SEAS ARE 4-6 FT S OF THE FRONT...HOWEVER THEY WILL QUICKLY BUILD IN NORTHERLY SWELLS BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH SEAS OF 8-11 FT ACROSS THE WATERS BY LATE TUE INTO EARLY WED. THESE SEAS WILL THEN LINGER THROUGH WED NIGHT...THEN WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. MEANWHILE...EXPECT MODERATE TRADES BY WED MORNING THROUGH FRI NIGHT. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. LATEST TAFB-NWPS BLENDED WITH LATEST MWW3 FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH WED NIGHT...THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A PAIR OF COLD FRONTS HAVE INTRUDED ON THE BASIN...THE EASTERN ONE EXTENDING FROM 31N73W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 24N80W...AND A REINFORCING FRONT REACHING FROM 31N79W TO JUST S OF DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA. FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS WERE NOTED BY RECENT ASCAT PASSES SEVERAL HOURS AGO...HOWEVER THESE WINDS ARE DIMINISHING DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. FRESH SOUTHERLY FLOW IS PRESENT N OF 27N E OF THE FRONT. MEANWHILE...1019 MB HIGH PRES IS LOCATED OFF TO THE SE OF THE LEADING FRONT NEAR 24.5N69.5W WITH A NE THROUGH SW RIDGE AXIS NOTED. BUOY...SHIP...AND SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOW MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE BASIN. THE FRONTS WILL MERGE AND REACH FROM BERMUDA TO THE SE BAHAMAS BY THIS EVENING...THEN WILL STALL FROM 29N65W TO THE SE BAHAMAS EARLY TUE UNTIL A REINFORCING PUSH KICKS IT BACK TO THE SE THROUGH WED BEFORE STALLING AGAIN FROM 25N65W TO CENTRAL CUBA THU MORNING. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SE UNITED STATES BY EARLY THU RESULTING IN A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT FROM ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO FRESH TO STRONG S OF 26N N OF THE STALLED FRONT BY THU AFTERNOON. THE FORECAST THEN BECOMES QUITE CHALLENGING AND IS DEPENDENT ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRES IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. MODEL DISAGREEMENT IS PRESENT WITH RESPECT TO THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW...AND THUS CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SW N ATLC REMAIN UNCERTAIN FOR THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI. AT THE VERY LEAST...EXPECT INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS BASIN WIDE AS THE HIGH PRES SLIDES OFF TO THE E OFFSHORE OF THE SE UNITED STATED AND EVEN E OF BERMUDA BY FRI NIGHT WHILE THE LOW IMPACTS OUR AREA RESULTING IN A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.