000 AGXX40 KNHC 101930 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 230 PM EST SUN JAN 10 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR WINDS USED BLEND OF 12Z GFS WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL THROUGH DAY 3...THEN GFS/ECMWF BLEND DAYS 4 AND 5. FOR WAVEHEIGHTS USED BLEND OF 12Z MWW3 AND TAFB NWPS OUTPUT WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH DAY 3...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE DAYS 4 AND 5. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS ALONG WITH CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW THE COLD FRONT NOW HAVING REACHED THE FAR EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ALONG A POSITION FROM NEAR FORT MYERS SW TO THE NE YUCATAN PENINSULA COAST. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAVE NOW SHIFTED TO THE FAR SE WATERS ALONG AND NEAR THE FLORIDA KEYS. LATEST AND CURRENT BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS W OF THE FRONT TO NEAR 88W...AND ALSO S OF 25N BETWEEN 88W-93W. GENTLE TO MODERATE NW-N WINDS ARE W OF 93W. THE OBSERVATIONS ARE REPORTING SEAS IN THE 6-9 FT RANGE BETWEEN A LINE FROM 28N83W TO THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE...AND ANOTHER LINE FROM 28N94W TO 20N97W. ELSEWHERE SEAS ARE IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE. THE FRONT IS ON TRACK TO EXIT THE GULF THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE BASIN THROUGH WED NIGHT. THE MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AS WINDS BEGIN TO VEER AROUND MORE TO THE N-NE MOST SECTIONS OF THE GULF WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 3-5 FT...EXCEPT FOR SLIGHTLY HIGHER SEAS OF 5-6 FT IN AND NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. BOTH BNDRY LAYER AND MOISTURE GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT A COASTAL TROUGH WILL FORM NEAR 96W S OF 28N MON NIGHT...AND MOVE LITTLE THROUGH WED NIGHT. THE GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS THAT LOW PRES MAY FORM ALONG THE TROUGH NEAR 28N ON WED...AND TRACK IN A GENERAL NNE MOTION AND MORE TO THE ENE THU AND THU NIGHT AND ACROSS FLORIDA FRI. DIFFERENCES LIE IN EXACT TRACK AND LOCATION OF THE LOW...BUT OVERALL CONSENSUS IS THAT LOW PRES WILL EVENTUALLY FORM. STILL THINK A BLEND OF THE GFS WITH THE ECMWF IS THE BEST SOLN FOR LONG TERM PERIODS OF THE FORECAST UNTIL MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH TRACK AND MORE SPECIFIC LOCATION OF THIS POSSIBLE LOW. FUTURE NDFD WIND AND WAVEHEIGHT GRIDS WILL BE ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR WINDS USED BLEND OF 12Z GFS WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. FOR WAVEHEIGHTS USED BLEND OF 12Z MWW3 AND TAFB NWPS OUTPUT WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. HIGH CONFIDENCE. GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN BASIN. CURRENT BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 3-5 FT ...EXCEPT FOR LOWER SEAS OF 2-3 FT IN THE FAR NE CARIBBEAN AND HIGHER SEAS OF 6-8 FT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA DUE TO THE RELATIVELY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT GENERATED THERE BETWEEN HIGHER PRES OVER THE NW ATLC AND LOWER PRES OVER NW COLOMBIA. THIS GRADIENT IS ALLOWING FOR FRESH NE-E WINDS TO PULSE THERE IN THE EVENINGS AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. EXPECT THESE WINDS TO CONTINUE TO PULSE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 6-8 FT. THE ABOVE MENTIONED GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND FAR NW CARIBBEAN TONIGHT...STALL THROUGH WED BEFORE AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN TO A TROUGH WED NIGHT THROUGH THU. NE WINDS OF 15-20 KT ARE EXPECTED W OF THE FRONT TONIGHT...QUICKLY DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KT EARLY ON MON WITH SEAS OF ABOUT 5-6 FT. IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...MODERATE TRADES AND 5-7 FT SEAS CURRENTLY PREVAIL. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA N OF 16N SUN NIGHT. LARGE NORTHERLY SWELLS WILL PROPAGATE DOWN ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATERS BY MON MORNING...MOVING SOUTHWARD THROUGH WED WITH SEAS OF 8-11 FT. AS SWELL ENERGY DISSIPATES...SEAS SUBSIDE TO 8-9 FT WED NIGHT AND DIMINISH TO 8 FT WHILE SHRINKING IN COVERAGE TO S OF ABOUT 15N BY FRI. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR WINDS USED BLEND OF 12Z GFS WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. FOR WAVEHEIGHTS USED BLEND OF 12Z MWW3 AND TAFB NWPS OUTPUT WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH DAY 3...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE DAYS 4 AND 5. A COLD FRONT PUSHED OFFSHORE THE SE U.S COAST THIS MORNING... AND AS OF 18Z THIS AFTERNOON EXTENDS FROM 31N79W SW TO INLAND CENTRAL FLORIDA JUST S OF CAPE CANAVERAL. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 25N79W TO NEAR THE NW COAST OF CUBA. LONG PERIOD NW-N SWELL CONTINUES TO SUBSIDE OVER THE FAR EASTERN PART OF THE BASIN WHERE SEAS ARE NOW DOWN TO 5-6 FT. SEAS ELSEWHERE NE OF THE BAHAMAS ARE IN THE 4-5 FT RANGE... EXCEPT FOR LOWER SEAS OF 1-3 FT SW OF THE BAHAMAS. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH FROM NEAR 31N75W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS THIS EVENING...THEN FROM BERMUDA TO THE NW BAHAMAS ON MON. THE FRONT WILL THEN BRIEFLY STALL FROM NEAR 29N65W TO THE SE BAHAMAS ON MON NIGHT AND DRIFT W TUE. THE FRONT WILL MOVE E AGAIN ON TUE NIGHT REACHING FROM NEAR 28N65W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS WHERE IT STALLS AND CONTINUES WESTWARD TO THE VICINITY OF S FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS AND INTO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO. FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DIMINISH TO MODERATE WINDS ON TUE AS WELL AS THE FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF IT. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT LOW PRES MAY FORM ALONG THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FRONT ON THU OR FRI...AND TRACK ENE ALONG THE FRONT WITH A TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT POSSIBLY BRINGING AN INCREASE TO WINDS AND SEAS OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA. WIND AND SEA HEIGHT FORECAST IN THE GRIDS WILL BE ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY BASED ON FUTURE MODEL TRENDS. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.