000 AGXX40 KNHC 100752 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 252 AM EST SUN JAN 10 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. LATEST TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE NIGHT...THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A PAIR OF COLD FRONTS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING THROUGH THE GULF EARLY THIS MORNING. THE LEADING FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR APALACHEE BAY FLORIDA TO THE NW TIP OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH A REINFORCING FRONT REACHING FROM NEAR MOBILE ALABAMA TO JUST S OF THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER. ISOLATED TSTMS HAVE BEEN NOTED AHEAD OF THE FIRST FRONT WITH A LINE OF CONVECTION HAVING MOVED ACROSS S FLORIDA DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. LATEST SCATTEROMETER AND IN-SITU OBSERVATIONS INDICATE FRESH TO STRONG NW-N FLOW FOLLOWING THE FIRST FRONT WITH SEAS UP TO 10 FT REPORTED IN THE SW GULF... WHICH IS 2 FT OR SO ABOVE ANY AVAILABLE WAVE GUIDANCE. THE FRONTS WILL CLEAR THE BASIN BY THIS EVENING WITH WINDS DIMINISHING AND VEERING TO THE N-NE AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE TAIL END OF THE LAST COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO DRIFT BACK TO THE NW INTO THE SE GULF BY LATE MON AFTERNOON WHILE INVERTED TROUGHING ALSO SETS UP IN THE NW GULF OFF THE TEXAS COAST. THIS TROUGHING WILL LINGER IN THE WESTERN GULF THROUGH THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEK WITH NW-N WINDS INCREASING TO 20-25 KT W OF THE TROUGH ALONG THE COAST OF VERACRUZ TUE INTO TUE NIGHT WHERE THE PRES GRADIENT WILL BE THE TIGHTEST. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE LOW PRES DEVELOPING ALONG THIS TROUGHING BY WED EVENING. THE PAST FEW RUNS OF THE GFS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY TO THE N WHICH IS MORE IN-LINE WITH THE LATEST ECMWF AND UKMET SOLUTIONS. THE GFS REMAINS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH RESPECT TO THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED WINDS AND WILL CONTINUE TO CAP WINDS AT 30 KT WHICH IS BELOW THE GALE FORCE THAT THE GFS CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT. THE GEFS 34 KT WIND PROBABILITIES DO NOT INDICATE A CHANCE FOR GALE FORCE WINDS. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. LATEST TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRES CENTERED ACROSS THE EASTERN/CENTRAL ATLC AND LOW PRES ACROSS NORTHERN COLOMBIA WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION EXCEPT THE NW CARIBBEAN...WITH FRESH TO DIURNALLY DRIVEN STRONG WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF S AMERICA NEAR VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA. RECENT ASCAT AND ASCAT-B SCATTEROMETER PASSES ALSO INDICATED AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG SE WINDS OFFSHORE OF EASTERN HONDURAS WHICH WAS FORECAST BY GLOBAL MODELS A FEW DAYS AGO. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATER THIS MORNING AS THE LOCAL PRES GRADIENT SLACKENS. OTHERWISE...A STABLE PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...EXCEPT FOR A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT WHICH IS FORECAST TO SLIP THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TONIGHT THEN STALL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LARGE N-NE SWELLS WILL PROPAGATE THROUGH THE ATLC/CARIBBEAN PASSAGES MON THROUGH TUE... THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDING WED INTO THU. IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES AND 5-7 FT SEAS CURRENTLY PREVAIL. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA N OF 16N TONIGHT. LARGE NORTHERLY SWELLS WILL PROPAGATE DOWN ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATERS BY MON MORNING...MOVING SOUTHWARD THROUGH WED WITH SEAS OF 8-11 FT. AS SWELL ENERGY DISSIPATES...SEAS SUBSIDE TO 8-9 FT WED NIGHT AND SHRINK IN COVERAGE TO S OF ABOUT 19N BY THU. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. LATEST TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH WED NIGHT...THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A WEAKENING FRONT LINGERS IN THE FAR SE PORTION OF THE OFFSHORE BASIN IN ZONE AMZ127 JUST TO THE NW OF PUERTO RICO SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. THIS FEATURE WILL WEAKEN AND WASH OUT WHILE A COLD FRONT PORTION WHICH EXTENDS OFF TO THE NE WILL DROP SE-S THROUGH THE TROPICAL N ATLC THROUGH TONIGHT. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE W CURRENTLY IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OUT AHEAD OF THIS FRONT ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AS WELL AS THE OFFSHORE WATERS N OF 26N W OF 68W. SOUTHERLY FLOW IS IN THE PROCESS OF INCREASING TO FRESH TO STRONG IN THE NW CORNER AHEAD OF THIS NEXT FRONT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT ALONG 30N/31N. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH FROM 31N75W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA THIS EVENING...THEN FROM 30N65W TO THE SE BAHAMAS MON EVENING WHERE IT IS FORECAST TO STALL AND LINGER THROUGH TUE BEFORE A REINFORCING FRONT/TROUGH DIVES SE-S OF 31N TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT WHICH WILL KICK OUT THE OLD BOUNDARY TO THE SE. HIGH PRES THEN BRIEFLY BUILDS IN BY THU MORNING ALONG WITH MORE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS...HOWEVER THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW LOW PRES MOVING FROM THE E OR SE GULF OF MEXICO TO ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA LATE THU AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...THEN OFF TO THE NE-E INTO THE SW N ATLC BASIN BY LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI. THE EXACT STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THIS LOW REMAINS TO BE SEEN WITH THE GFS BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH RESPECT TO THE INTENSITY. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.