000 AGXX40 KNHC 091935 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 235 PM EST SAT JAN 9 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR WINDS USED BLEND OF 12Z GFS WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL THROUGH DAY 3...THEN GFS/ECMWF BLEND DAYS 4 AND 5. FOR WAVEHEIGHTS USED BLEND OF 12Z MWW3 AND TAFB NWPS OUTPUT WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH DAY 3...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE DAYS 4 AND 5. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS ALONG WITH CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW MB LOW PRES OF 1006 MB JUST INLAND SE LOUISIANA WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LOW SSW TO 25N90W AND TO NEAR VERACRUZ. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW ENE TO JUST S OF APALACHICOLA AND SE TO INLAND SW FLORIDA. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS JUST OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH VERY ACTIVE CONVECTION ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE TROUGH FROM 25N TO 30N BETWEEN 84W-89W. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS ENHANCING THIS CONVECTION. LATEST AND CURRENT BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW FRESH S-SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND TROUGH TO NEAR 85W...AND FRESH NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT N OF 25N WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS AT THE HIGHER PLATFORM SITES. THE OBSERVATIONS ARE REPORTING SEAS IN THE 5-7 FT RANGE W OF THE FRONT...AND 3-5 FT E OF THE FRONT. MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE 1006 MB LOW IS QUICKLY LIFTS NE TO OVER THE SE UNITED STATES BY EARLY TONIGHT WITH THE COLD FRONT REACHING A POSITION FROM THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. HIGH PRES IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL BUILD SE THROUGH SUN EVENING AS THE FRONT EXITS THE GULF. THE FRESH TO NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DIMINISH THROUGH SUN NIGHT AS WINDS BEGIN TO VEER AROUND MORE TO THE N-NE MOST SECTIONS OF THE GULF WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 3-5 FT...EXCEPT FOR SLIGHTLY HIGHER SEAS OF 5-6 FT IN AND NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. BOTH BNDRY LAYER AND MOISTURE GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS DEPICT THE WESTERN PART OF THE FRONT LIFTING BACK N AS A TROUGH WITH POSSIBLE WEAK LOW PRES IN THE FAR WESTERN GULF NEAR THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS COAST ON WED...THEN TRACK MORE TO THE ENE THU AND THU NIGHT WED NIGHT. THE GFS IS AGGRESSIVELY SHOWING A VERY TIGHT GRADIENT SETTING UP OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF WED AND THU. FOR NOW...HAVE USED A GFS/ECMWF BLEND TO TAPER DOWN THE STRONG TO GALE FORCE WINDS AND LARGE SEAS THE GFS IS SHOWING FOR THE THU PERIOD AS UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH THAT FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR WINDS USED BLEND OF 12Z GFS WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. FOR WAVEHEIGHTS USED BLEND OF 12Z MWW3 AND TAFB NWPS OUTPUT WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. HIGH CONFIDENCE. RATHER QUIET CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN BASIN. CURRENT BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 3-5 FT...EXCEPT FOR LOWER SEAS OF 2-3 FT IN THE FAR NE CARIBBEAN AND HIGHER SEAS OF 6-8 FT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA DUE TO THE RELATIVELY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT GENERATED THERE BETWEEN HIGHER PRES OVER THE NW ATLC AND LOWER PRES OVER NW COLOMBIA. THIS GRADIENT IS ALLOWING FOR FRESH NE-E WINDS TO PULSE THERE IN THE EVENINGS AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. EXPECT THESE WINDS TO CONTINUE TO PULSE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT. THE PRES GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO TIGHTEN SLIGHTLY IN THE EASTERN GULF OF HONDURAS AREA LATE TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR A BRIEF INSTANCE OF 15-20 KT E-SE FLOW THERE. OTHERWISE...THE RATHER QUIET CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE ABOVE MENTIONED GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND FAR NW CARIBBEAN SUN NIGHT...STALL THROUGH WED BEFORE AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN TO A TROUGH WED NIGHT THROUGH THU. NE WINDS OF 15-20 KT ARE EXPECTED W OF THE FRONT SUN NIGHT...QUICKLY DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KT EARLY ON MON WITH SEAS OF ABOUT 5-6 FT. IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...MODERATE TRADES AND 5-7 FT SEAS CURRENTLY PREVAIL. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA N OF 16N SUN NIGHT. LARGE NORTHERLY SWELLS WILL PROPAGATE DOWN ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATERS BY MON MORNING...MOVING SOUTHWARD THROUGH WED WITH SEAS OF 8-11 FT. AS SWELL ENERGY DISSIPATES...SEAS SUBSIDE TO 8-9 FT WED NIGHT AND SHRINK IN COVERAGE TO S OF ABOUT 19N BY THU. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR WINDS USED BLEND OF 12Z GFS WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. FOR WAVEHEIGHTS USED BLEND OF 12Z MWW3 AND TAFB NWPS OUTPUT WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH DAY 3...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE DAYS 4 AND 5. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N78W SSW TO INLAND WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA. A POST-FRONTAL TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE AND DEEP LOW PRES SYSTEM NE OF THE AREA IS JUST EXITING THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THIS AREA. RECENTLY RECEIVED ALTIMETER DATA ALONG WITH A FEW SHIP REPORTS REVEAL LONG PERIOD NW SWELL PRODUCING SEAS OF 7-9 FT N OF 25N E OF 68W. SEAS ELSEWHERE NE OF THE BAHAMAS ARE IN THE 6-8 FT RANGE IN MIXED N AND NE SWELL. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AT IT SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH EARLY SUN. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO FRESH TO STRONG AS THE SE U.S. LOW APPROACHES BY LATE TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR SEAS TO BUILD TO 7-9 FT. THE LOW WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT INTO THE NW PORTION BY SUN MORNING QUICKLY REACHING FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO THE SE BAHAMAS BY MON AFTERNOON. THE FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO STALL BY LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING WITH WEAK LOW PRES LIKELY FORMING ALONG IT BY TUE NIGHT NEAR THE VICINITY OF 28N72W. THE LOW WILL THEN EJECT OFF TO THE NE TUE NIGHT AS A REINFORCING COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE NW PORTION. FRESH TO STRONG W-NW WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE REINFORCING FRONT N OF 28N LATE TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED...WHILE FRESH TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE SE SIDE OF THE LOW. THE REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND STALL IS IT REACHES THE SE PORTION BY WED AFTERNOON. ON THU...THE FRONTAL REMNANTS WILL THEN BEGIN TO MOVE BACK TO THE W TOWARDS THE GENERAL AREA OF THE SE BAHAMAS. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.