000 AGXX40 KNHC 090751 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 251 AM EST SAT JAN 9 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. LATEST TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A TROUGH IS EXITING THE SE GULF EXTENDING FROM S FLORIDA TO SW OF NAPLES NEAR 25N85W. MEANWHILE A COLD FRONT IS MOVING INTO THE NW GULF COASTAL WATERS WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 30N94W TO 23N98W. A VIGOROUS LINE OF CONVECTION EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION TO OFF THE TEXAS COAST NEAR 27N96W SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE SWINGING THROUGH THE AREA. SCATTEROMETER DATA ALONG WITH THE LATEST SHIP AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW FRESH TO STRONG SE-S WINDS N OF 22N AHEAD OF THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WITH FRESH TO STRONG NW-N WINDS BEGINNING TO MOVE IN BEHIND THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT IN THE FAR NW GULF. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH FROM SE LOUISIANA TO LOWER VERACRUZ MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON...THEN EXITING THE GULF BY SUN EVENING. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT...DIMINISHING LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. THE FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO LIFT OR PUSH BACK NW-W AS EITHER A WARM FRONT OR REMNANT TROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A REINFORCING MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIVE SE BY TUE NIGHT HELPING TO KICK OUT THE LINGERING BOUNDARY BACK TO THE SE BY WED MORNING AS SURFACE HIGH PRES BUILDS BACK IN ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY WED AFTERNOON. LOOKING AHEAD TO THE END OF NEXT WEEK...MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPING LOW PRES IN THE NW GULF ALONG THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THE GFS TAKES AN IMPRESSIVE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SE GULF AND THEN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE CONVECTION...WHILE THE LATEST ECMWF ALSO SHOWS AN IMPRESSIVE LOW BUT A MORE NORTHERN TRACK ALONG 30N. NEEDLESS TO SAY PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT BEYOND DAY 4-5. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. LATEST TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRES CENTERED ACROSS THE EASTERN/CENTRAL ATLC AND LOW PRES ACROSS NORTHERN COLOMBIA WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION EXCEPT THE NW CARIBBEAN...WITH FRESH TO DIURNALLY DRIVEN STRONG WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF S AMERICA NEAR VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA. RECENT ASCAT AND ASCAT-B SCATTEROMETER PASSES SAMPLED THESE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 73W-77W OFFSHORE OF NW COLOMBIA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO TIGHTEN SLIGHTLY IN THE EASTERN GULF OF HONDURAS AREA LATE TONIGHT AS BROAD AND WEAK LOW PRES DEVELOPS NEARBY ALLOWING FOR A BRIEF BURST OF 20 KT E-SE FLOW. OTHERWISE...A STABLE PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...EXCEPT FOR A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT WHICH IS FORECAST TO SLIP THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL SUN NIGHT THEN STALL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...MODERATE TRADES AND 5-7 FT SEAS CURRENTLY PREVAIL. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA N OF 16N SUN NIGHT. LARGE NORTHERLY SWELLS WILL PROPAGATE DOWN ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATERS BY MON MORNING...MOVING SOUTHWARD THROUGH WED WITH SEAS OF 8-11 FT. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. LATEST TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. 991 MB LOW PRES IS ANALYZED NEAR 34N60W WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 31N56W TO THE OFFSHORE WATERS NEAR 22N65W TO NEAR THE MONA PASSAGE. THE STRONGEST WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES HAVE SHIFTED WELL E OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS...HOWEVER A REINFORCING SURFACE TROUGH IS SWINGING THROUGH THE AREA FROM 27N65W TO 26N70W. RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED FRESH TO STRONG W-NW FLOW N OF 27N/28N W OF THIS TROUGH. THE TROUGH AND FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PULL OFF TO THE E AWAY FROM THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. 1011 MB LOW PRES WAS LOCATED NE OF THE FLORIDA SPACE COAST WITH A TRAILING TROUGH EXTENDING SW OF THE LOW TO ACROSS S FLORIDA. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE N TO OFF OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA BY THE EVENING BEFORE MERGING WITH A MORE IMPRESSIVE LOW PRES SYSTEM THAT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE SE UNITED STATES. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO FRESH TO STRONG AS THE SE U.S. LOW APPROACHES BY LATE TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR SEAS TO BUILD TO 7-9 FT. THE LOW WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT INTO THE NW PORTION BY SUN MORNING QUICKLY REACHING FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO THE SE BAHAMAS BY MON AFTERNOON. THE FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO STALL BY LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING WITH WEAK LOW PRES LIKELY FORMING ALONG IT BY TUE NIGHT NEAR THE VICINITY OF 28N72W. THE LOW WILL THEN EJECT OFF TO THE NE TUE NIGHT AS A REINFORCING COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE NW PORTION. FRESH TO STRONG W-NW WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE REINFORCING FRONT N OF 28N LATE TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED...WHILE FRESH TO NEAR GALE FORCE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE SE SIDE OF THE LOW. THE REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL ALSO GET HUNG UP ACROSS THE SE PORTION BY WED NIGHT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.