000 AGXX40 KNHC 081929 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 229 PM EST FRI JAN 8 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. LATEST TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. AT 15 UTC DISSIPATING 1010 MB LOW PRES SYSTEM WAS ANALYZED IN THE NE GULF NEAR APPALACHICOLA WITH A TRAILING TROUGH EXTENDING TO 23N87W. 1452 AND 1536 UTC ASCAT PASSES INDICATED ONLY LIGHT WINDS IN THE AREA AND SUGGESTS THE LOW IS OPENING UP INTO A TROUGH. THE SAME ASCAT PASS INDICATED RETURN FLOW OF 15 KT ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. SEAS WERE GENERALLY 2-4 FT WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS NOTED W OF 90W. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESS IS EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS COAST TONIGHT AND DRAG A FORMING COLD FRONT OFF THE TEXAS COAST BEFORE SUNRISE SAT. A STRONGER COLD FRONT OVER TEXAS AT SUNRISE WILL SWEEP EASTWARD AND OVERTAKE THE FIRST FRONT WITH THE MERGED FRONTS EXTENDING FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE WRN BAY OF CAMPECHE BY LATE SAT...AND FROM FLORIDA BAY TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL BY LATE SUN. NW WINDS OF 20-25 KT ARE FORECAST IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH WINDS TO 30 KT WITHIN 60-90 NM OF VERACRUZ. MWW3 APPEARS 1-2 FT TOO LOW WITH THE SEAS BEHIND THE FRONT GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS AND FETCH LENGTH. BY LATE SUN STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. AS HIGH PRESS BUILDS IN FROM THE SE CONUS...WINDS DIMINISH AND VEER TO NE NE SUN NIGHT AND MON. NWP MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT AN INVERTED TROUGH/WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE SW GULF TUE AND BECOMES BETTER DEFINED OVER THE FAR NW GULF WED ALLOWING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SE CONUS TO TIGHTEN WITH AN INCREASE IN E-SE WINDS OF 20-25 KT W OF 90W BY LATE WED. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: OFFICIAL BLENDED WITH LATEST GFS. BLEND OF MWW3/ECMWF WAVE USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRES CENTERED ACROSS THE EASTERN/CENTRAL ATLC AND LOW PRES ACROSS NORTHERN COLOMBIA WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION EXCEPT THE NW CARIBBEAN...WITH FRESH TO DIURNALLY DRIVEN STRONG WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF S AMERICA NEAR VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO TIGHTEN SLIGHTLY IN THE EASTERN GULF OF HONDURAS AREA SAT NIGHT AS BROAD AND WEAK LOW PRES DEVELOPS NEARBY ALLOWING FOR A BRIEF BURST OF 20-25 KT E-SE FLOW. OTHERWISE...A STABLE PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...EXCEPT FOR A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT WHICH IS FORECAST TO SLIP THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL SUN NIGHT THEN STALL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: OFFICIAL BLENDED WITH LATEST GFS. BLEND OF MWW3/ECMWF WAVE USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. AT 12 UTC 992 MB LOW PRES WAS ANALYZED 120 NM WNW OF BERMUDA WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 31N63W TO 21N72W. SINCE THEN THE LOW HAS ACCELERATED TO THE EAST AND IS VERY NEAR BERMUDA. 1354 AND 1448 UTC ASCAT PASSES CAPTURED THE GALES ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM QUITE WELL. AN AREA OF 35-40+ KT WINDS WAS NOTED WITHIN 180 NM IN THE SE QUADRANT OF THE LOW CENTER. THE TRANSLATION OF THE LOW CENTER FURTHER EAST SUGGEST GALES HAVE NOW MOVED NE OF AMZ115 WITH THE GALE WARNING ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. THE LATEST SREF 34-KT WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES ARE NE OF THE ZONE BY 21 UTC. THE GFS HAS THE BEST INITIALIZATION OF THE LOW PRESSURE AT 12 UTC. THEREFORE HAVE BLENDED THE GFS WITH THE OFFICIAL FOR THE FIRST 72 HOURS OF THE FORECAST THEN TRENDED TOWARD A CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL MODELS THEREAFTER. SEAS SHOULD HAVE PEAKED AT 18 FT OVER THE FAR NE CORNER OF THE AREA AND WILL SUBSIDE TONIGHT INTO SAT. WEAK HIGH PRES RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW AND FRONT...SHIFTING EASTWARD SAT AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE NW CORNER. THE FRONT IS SLATED TO MOVE OFF THE SE GEORGIA/NE FLORIDA COASTS BEFORE SUNRISE SUN AND SWEEP RAPIDLY EASTWARD AND EXTEND FROM 31N74W TO EXTREME SE FLORIDA BY LATE SUN AND FROM 31N65W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS BY LATE MON. S-SW WINDS INCREASE OVER AMZ111-113 AHEAD OF THE FRONT SUN WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT. W-NW WINDS OF 15-20 KT ARE FORECAST IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT SUN NIGHT...THEN QUICKLY DIMINISH ON MON. THE FRONT LIFTS NWD AS A WARM FRONT TUE AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE CAROLINAS. AS THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE...ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE SE COAST EARLY WED AND SWEEPS EASTWARD TO ALONG 31N68W TO S FLORIDA BY LATE WED. STRONGER CAA WILL RESULT IN W-NW WINDS OF 20-30 KT BEHIND THE FRONT BY WED AFTERNOON. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER COBB. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.