000 AGXX40 KNHC 080710 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 210 AM EST FRI JAN 8 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. LATEST TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A 1010 MB LOW PRES SYSTEM WAS ANALYZED IN THE NE GULF NEAR 29N86W WITH A TRAILING TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH 25N86W TO THE NW YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 20N90W. MEANWHILE WEAK 1016 MB HIGH PRES WAS LOCATED IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH NEAR 25N88W. LATEST OBSERVATIONS INDICATED LINGERING FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS N OF 23N JUST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...HOWEVER MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THESE WINDS DIMINISHING BY SUNRISE. OTHERWISE MAINLY MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW IS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN. THE LOW AND TROUGH WILL SHIFT NE-E OF THE BASIN TONIGHT WHILE THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WESTERN GULF. THAT FRONT WILL ARRIVE BY EARLY SAT MORNING QUICKLY REACHING FROM SE LOUISIANA TO VERACRUZ MEXICO NEAR 18.5N95W BY SAT AFTERNOON... THEN FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO THE NORTHERN YUCATAN LATE SAT NIGHT...PUSHING E OF THE BASIN BY LATE SUN AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING IN BEHIND IT. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED N OF 27N AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH FRESH TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS BEHIND IT...THE STRONGEST BEING JUST OFFSHORE OF MEXICO. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SUN NIGHT AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN. MAINLY MODERATE NE-E FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE BASIN FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...INCREASING TO MODERATE TO FRESH BY TUE NIGHT AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. LATEST TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRES CENTERED ACROSS THE EASTERN/CENTRAL ATLC AND LOW PRES ACROSS NORTHERN COLOMBIA WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION EXCEPT THE NW CARIBBEAN...WITH A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST OF S AMERICA NEAR VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA. THE PRES GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO TIGHTEN SLIGHTLY IN THE EASTERN GULF OF HONDURAS AREA SAT NIGHT AS BROAD AND WEAK LOW PRES DEVELOPS NEARBY ALLOWING FOR A BRIEF BURST OF FRESH TO STRONG E-SE FLOW. OTHERWISE...THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...EXCEPT FOR THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT WHICH IS FORECAST TO DROP AND STALL OVER THE SUN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. LATEST TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. LOW PRES WAS ANALYZED APPROXIMATELY 200 NM W OF BERMUDA WITH A COLD FRONT SLICING THROUGH OUR AREA FROM 31N69W TO 28N69W TO 21N72W. MOST OF THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAS NOW SHIFTED E OF 65W. RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATED LINGERING GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE NE PORTION OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND A GALE WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH TODAY WITH THE CONDITIONS THEN SHIFTING E OF THE OFFSHORE AREA/65W TONIGHT. THE LATEST SREF 34 KT WIND PROBABILITIES INDICATE A NEAR 100 PERCENT CHANCE OF GALES FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT IN ZONE AMZ115 WHILE THE LATEST GEFS ALSO SHOWS A GREATER THAN 90 PERCENT CHANCE...GRADUALLY TAPERING TO 0 PERCENT W OF 65W BY SUNSET TONIGHT. VERY LARGE SEAS...UP TO 20 FT...WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THIS FAR NE PORTION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...FINALLY SUBSIDING TONIGHT INTO SAT. WEAK HIGH PRES RIDGING WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW AND FRONT...SHIFTING EASTWARD BY SAT MORNING AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE NW CORNER. THAT FRONT WILL SLIDE OFF OF THE SE GEORGIA/NE FLORIDA COASTS BY SUN MORNING... HOWEVER SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT WILL INCREASE TO FRESH TO STRONG BY SAT NIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8-10 FT. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM 31N73W TO THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS SUN EVENING...THEN FROM JUST E OF BERMUDA TO THE SE BAHAMAS MON EVENING...WHERE IT IS FORECAST TO STALL TUE MORNING...THEN DRIFT NW-N AS A WARM FRONT THROUGH TUE NIGHT. ONLY MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY FLOW AND 6-9 FT SEAS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THIS COLD FRONT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W... GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY. .AMZ115...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W... GALE WARNING TODAY. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.